War on I-4: UCF or USF Holds Advantage?
Cover photo: USF WR Xavier Weaver was tackled by UCF's Davonte Brown during the 2021 meeting in the Bounce House; photo credit: Mike Watters of USA Today Sports.
Looking at what is likely to be the last War on I-4 for a long time, going over the numbers, they spoke loudly in favor of the UCF Knights over the USF Bulls. That’s not the only point for the game, however.
Yes, emotion absolutely matters as well. That’s why the first article from Inside The Knights about the 2022 matchup between UCF and USF was primarily about whether UCF would be mentally ready to play.
That was not by accident. This article stemmed from a need to find a baseline for what to expect heading into the Thanksgiving weekend matchup when head coach Gus Malzahn and his Knights travel to play the Bulls in Tampa.
Here are some of the basic numbers that need to be covered, including some stark differences, noted in bold, between categories for UCF units that will go against USF.
UCF offense versus the South Florida Defense
UCF scoring average: 33.9 (30); South Florida scoring defense: 40.7 (130).
UCF rushing average: 234.5 (7); South Florida rushing defense: 224.7 (128).
UCF passing average: 246.5 (49); South Florida passing defense: 289.3 (128).
UCF red zone offense: 77.4% (109); South Florida red zone defense: 82.1% (56).
UCF turnovers: 16 total (72); South Florida turnovers created: 12 (102).
The obvious advantage goes to UCF’s rushing offense. Can USF at least slow down the UCF running game? If Isaiah Bowser, RJ Harvey and Johnny Richardson are running wild, which quarterback starts for the Knights against the Bulls -- John Rhys Plumlee or Mikey Keene -- will not matter.
USF must be able to force its counterpart from Orlando to throw the football more than it normally does, and do so in obvious passing situations, too. That starts on first down.
If UCF is getting four or more yards per carry, leading to second down and six or less, USF will be in big trouble. Another point also came from the UCF rushing statistics.
If the Knights run the football well, its disappointing red zone offense could receive a boost. UCF has shot itself in the foot with penalties, drops, missed reads by running backs and quarterbacks, and just not making critical plays in the red zone.
Against USF, that might go away because the Knights would be able to pick and choose when it passes the football, as well as just bludgeoning the Bulls inside the 20-yard line.
South Florida Offense Versus UCF Defense
South Florida scoring average: 27 (77); UCF scoring defense: 19.7 (21).
South Florida rushing average: 187.6 (41); UCF rushing defense: 134.8 (46).
South Florida passing average: 197.7 (105); UCF passing defense: 218.6 (55).
South Florida red zone offense: 85.4% (57); UCF red zone defense: 65.9% (2).
South Florida turnovers: 17 total (77); UCF turnovers created: 11 (113).
UCF’s dominant red zone defense going against a mediocre USF red zone offense has a chance to be a defining scenario for the final score. For the Bulls to pull off the upset, it will quite likely need to outperform what it’s done in the red zone so far in 2022. There is another interesting statistic that favors USF.
Hard to imagine USF upsetting UCF without winning the turnover battle. If UCF does not create turnovers, that could allow USF to stay in the game much the same way it did in 2021.
While UCF’s defense has played well for much of 2022, it’s not been able to create enough game-changing turnovers. The longer the Knights allow the Bulls to have hope, the more momentum the they could build.
In particular, no matter which quarterback USF uses against UCF -- and it was freshman Byrum Brown last week that made his first start and completed 84% of his passes -- the Bulls just need that one spark to get moving downhill with their quarterback.
Perhaps the inexperienced Brown gets away with a couple of poor throws, and then he gets hot and leads multiple touchdown drives. That possibility is why UCF absolutely must take the football away from USF.
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