Week 12 CFB Schedule: 'Trap Games' for UCF, Michigan and TCU
The Associated Press Poll had substantial movement again, and it’s largely due to those pesky “upsets” that just seem to happen no matter what data said prior to any given contest being played.
Do not look now, but college football’s Week 12 lineup offers some obvious trap games that take place early in the day. Can the following three favorites hold off from being upset during the first slate of games that take place?
11 a.m. - Navy Midshipmen (3-7) at #17 UCF Knights (8-2)
Why in the world would this game be on the possible upsets list? The Knights seemed to be headed in a good direction after the offensive explosion versus Tulane. Well, it's the same reasons it should have been for Notre Dame, the team that just barely escaped Navy by a final score of 35-32.
It's primarily about defending the triple option. It’s the same offense that gave UCF fits last season and led to Navy winning 34-30. The Midshipmen rushed for 348 yards and three touchdowns, the most rushing yards against the Knights since head coach Gus Malzahn came to Orlando to be the head man for UCF.
Additionally, Navy kept Notre Dame from scoring a single point during the second half of their game. That does not seem likely for UCF with quarterback John Rhys Plumlee and a vast collection of skill talent to distribute the football. Basically, UCF must stop itself, i.e. penalties, dropped passes, poor throws, etc.
Navy's defense has not shown to be any place near as talented as UCF's offense. That does not mean the Knights will be completely locked in. Seniors must lead for the Knights on offense this week. That starts with the offensive line and Plumlee on offense, but it's the defense that has the lion's share of responsibility, starting right up the middle.
The biggest job for the defense will be to stop the fullback dive. That's the responsibility of senior defensive tackles Ricky Barber and Anthony Montalvo, as well as leading tackler and inside linebacker Jason Johnson. They also need to make sure that the younger players are ready to read their keys and play fast against Navy's triple option.
One mental error can be the difference in the game.
A lack of mental discipline has been what's killed teams that faced the Midshipmen this season and in recent years. Just look at the Irish this past Saturday during the second half. Navy carved up Notre Dame's defense. UCF cannot fall into that trap.
As an important side note, the UCF football players will be happy to know that the Knight fans will be out early, as there's been important tailgating news announced:
— UCF Knights (@UCFKnights) November 13, 2022
Noon - Illinois (7-3) at #3 Michigan (10-0)
Illinois just laid an egg against Purdue at home, and dropped from No. 21 to out of the rankings. So, the Illini know all too well how easy it is to lose a game it should win. Purdue was a solid team coming into the contest, but that’s just not a game that Illinois should have lost.
In reverse, that’s now the Illinois at Michigan game stacks up. Illinois finished Week 11 as the No. 6 rushing defense in the land by giving up 85.9 yards per game. Michigan, meanwhile, has rushed for at least 165 yards in every game this season. The highest total was 418 yards against now No. 11 Penn State.
The ringleader for the Wolverines has been running back Blake Corum. He's a Heisman Trophy candidate and sits with 1,349 yards and 17 touchdowns on the season. Illinois is going to go all-out to try and stop him.
The team that wins this line of scrimmage battle has a great chance to come out victorious. The reason is, the team that falls behind the chains will be forced to throw the football instead of throwing when it wants to. That means turnovers waiting to happen.
That means Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy might need to make some quick decisions with passes as the Illinois defense stacks the line of scrimmage. It will be interesting to see if the sophomore from Chicago will be ready to take on that task.
Noon - #4 TCU (10-0) at Baylor (6-4)
After escaping a road game against Texas by the score of 17-10, TCU goes on the road once more to Waco, Texas to play at the Baylor Bears. TCU has found ways to win close games against quality opponents like SMU, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and now Texas.
Much of that success stemmed from quarterback Max Duggan. The senior signal caller has been clutch this season. The Horned Frogs have scored 40.5 points per game this season, good for No. 8 in the land. Duggan orchestrated the scoring efficiency, and chipped in 2,531 yards, 25 passing and four rushing touchdowns so far.
They will need to continue to run the football well. TCU has averaged 213.6 yards per game, with running back Kendre Miller already at 1,147 ayrds and 13 touchdowns.
That's been a big reason Duggan has accomplished so much as a passer, teams have been trying to slow down the Horned Frogs on the ground; the running game helped Duggan have more time to pass.
Baylor’s own rushing attack averaged 199.6 thus far in 2022. Much like the Illinois at Michigan game, this could come down to which team runs the football the best. There’s another key point.
While redshirt freshman quarterback Blake Shapen has not been all that great the past four games, if he’s just a little bit better than average against TCU, an upset becomes even more likely. Keep an eye on Shapen. He’s going to have some chances to connect on play-action shot plays that could change the scoreboard.
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