UCLA vs. Arizona State Week 5: Scouting Report

Taking a look at what the Sun Devils bring to the table for their matchup with the Bruins on Saturday.

Neither side has had a serious string of dominance in the rivalry between the Bruins and Sun Devils, but the former has a chance to assert themselves over the weekend.

No. 20 UCLA football (3-1, 1-0 Pac-12) will play host to Arizona State (3-1, 1-0), having won two in a row and three of the last four against their Pac-12 South foes. There is a lot of continuity heading into the 2021 edition of the series, with coaches Chip Kelly and Herm Edwards now set to face off for the fourth consecutive year.

Edwards has slightly tweaked his staff in Tempe through the years, with the biggest shift being the addition of former Boise State offensive coordinator Zak Hill. On the other side of the ball, Antonio Pierce may have taken over as defensive coordinator in the offseason, but his former co-DC Marvin Lewis is still on the staff, so it's essentially the same system as it has been in years' past.

So with the past few seasons and the first four games of 2021 in mind, here's a quick rundown of what Arizona State might look like come Saturday.

Arizona State Offense vs. UCLA Defense

Arizona State Passing Yards/Game: 227.8 yards
Arizona State Rushing Yards/Game: 210.0 yards
UCLA Passing Yards Allowed/Game: 330.3 yards
UCLA Rushing Yards Allowed/Game: 64.0 yards

When quarterback Jayden Daniels broke onto the scene in 2019, he took advantage of the spread offense he was playing in to cash in with big numbers and winning plays.

Since Hill got to town, however, Daniels has been part of a much more rigid, streamlined, pro-style offense. Statistically, he has not found as much success in the passing game over the past two seasons.

Daniels' passer rating has dropped every year since his freshman campaign. His 2020 sophomore year was certainly disrupted by COVID-19 issues, but still, taking out his one 55-yard touchdown to running back Rachaad White against USC that probably should have been scored as a backwards pass, Daniels would have had a 136.7 passer rating across the full season. Not horrible, but a departure from his 149.2 rating as a freshman.

His scoring and big play numbers are also dwindling. Daniels has just two passing touchdowns to three interceptions in four games, with two of those performances coming against two wildly inferior opponents in Southern Utah and UNLV. Daniels' adjusted yards per attempt – which takes touchdowns and interceptions into account as well as the yards and pass attempts, obviously – is down from over 9.0 his first two seasons to 7.5 in 2021.

A lot of that has to do with Hill calling a lot more screens and dump offs for Daniels, who has seen his completion percentage go from 58.3% last year to 72.6% this year. He surely can complete those simple passes, and with a lot more of them, it's skewing his completion percentage and hiding the fact that he is still overthrowing guys without setting his feet when he has to look further downfield.

According to Pro Football Focus, Daniels' turnover worthy throw percentage has gone up from last season while his big time throw rate has gone down.

There isn't a N'Keal Harry or Brandon Aiyuk for Daniels to hit downfield even if he wanted to, though. The Sun Devil receivers' inability to get open vertically has had to have played into Hill's decision to virtually remove that from the playbook outside a few sprinkled in here and there. LV Bunkley-Shelton, Johnny Wilson and Andre Johnson are the only wideouts who have contributed in a significant way, and none of them are averaging more than 50 yards or three receptions per game.

Daniels still has some rare deep balls in him though, and if there's any kind of defensive breakdown over the top and he has time in the pocket, he is more than capable of hitting guys downfield.

The throw that got Jayden Daniels into the 4️⃣K club. 🔱@JayD__5 » @__andre10 pic.twitter.com/fjXAaVQmEs

— Sun Devil Football (@ASUFootball) September 19, 2021

Because of the offense's reliance on screens and check downs, White actually leads the team in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. White, who is an above-average ball-carrier with six touchdowns and 4.7 yards per attempt on the ground so far this fall, is also going to be by far the most skilled pass-catching back the Bruins have faced this year, and it will likely be up to guys like linebackers Ale Kaho and Kain Medrano, strikers Qwuantrezz Knight and Martel Irby and possibly raiders Bo Calvert and Carl Jones to track him down throughout the night.

Daniyel Ngata is the more explosive running back with the ball in his hands, as he averages 6.8 yards per carry and has three touchdowns of his own.

Between the two of them and the stable of speedy receivers, don't be surprised to see some double passes, flea flickers, end arounds, pitches or double handoffs come into play to get the ball in their hands in space.

Just look at this ungodly formation, for example:

The double hand-off.

The blocking.

Perfection.

🎥 ESPN2 pic.twitter.com/kmZB323wRF

— Sun Devil Football (@ASUFootball) September 12, 2021

UCLA, conversely, is allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game in the FBS at 64.0 per game.

The most dangerous ball-carrier on the team, however, is Daniels himself, who despite faltering as a passer as of late, is as effective as ever with his legs. Daniels is good in designed runs, but even better as a scrambler, picking up big chunks of yards with defenses distracted shutting down routes further downfield.

Adjusting for sacks, Daniels has rushed for 278 yards and two touchdowns on 9.0 yards per carry.

"QBs aren't supposed to do that."@JayD__5. a different breed.

🎥 https://t.co/gRlUfsLzdy pic.twitter.com/KqxebFpNL6

— Sun Devil Football (@ASUFootball) December 20, 2020

Buying time for Daniels is an experienced offensive line made up of – from left to right – Kellen Diesch, LaDarius Henderson, Dohnovan West, Henry Hattis and Ben Scott, all of whom are in their third season of college football at the very least. Helping in pass protection are the tight ends, which Hill has started leaning on more and more this season. There is at least one tight end on the field for nearly every play – typically the 6-foot-7, 240-pound Curtis Hodges – with a good number of two tight end sets mixed in as well.

They have been giving Daniels even more options to check down to, as well as keeping his jersey clean in pass protection. Arizona State ranks inside the top 20 in sack rate and fewest sacks allowed per game, and Daniels takes full advantage of that extra time both by bursting upfield for long gains and settling in in the pocket.

Daniels is completing 75% of his passes in a clean pocket, but just 44% under pressure.

The usual suspects – Calvert, Jones, Knight, defensive end Mitchell Agude and defensive lineman Datona Jackson – will be tasked with knocking him around. It's always a difficult balance when you want to rough up an opposing quarterback while simultaneously staying vigilant of him sneaking out for big runs, so discipline will be huge come Saturday night.

There are better passers UCLA has faced so far this year, but Daniels is definitely the most difficult player the Bruins' staff has had to game plan for in 2021.

Arizona State Defense vs. UCLA Offense

UCLA Passing Yards/Game: 234.3 yards
UCLA Rushing Yards/Game: 200.0 yards
Arizona State Passing Yards Allowed/Game: 124.3 yards
Arizona State Rushing Yards Allowed/Game: 123.3 yards

The talent is there for the Sun Devils on defense, and so is the scheme.

The unforced errors have cost them so far this season, whether that's poor tacking, racking up ill-timed penalties or this brutal lapse in awareness and ball-security on what should have been a go-ahead pick-six to end the third quarter by linebacker Merlin Robertson against BYU.

Luckily for Arizona State, their competition has been so poor that those mistakes haven't really come back to bite them all too often this season, with the exception of the game versus the Cougars.

The Sun Devils are allowing fewer than 125 yards per to opposing passers and rushers, respectively, so far this season. No. 2 Georgia is the only other team that can make that same claim. The 16.0 points per game they're giving up is good for No. 21 in the nation as well.

Again though, the raw numbers do not mean much looking at the strength of schedule.

Outside of BYU, which it lost to by double-digits, Arizona State's other three opponents are currently a combined 2-10. UNLV is winless, Southern Utah is an FCS school with a losing record and Colorado ranks No. 127 out of 130 FBS programs with 13.7 points per game. The Buffaloes, the one Power Five team the Sun Devils have faced in 2021, have scored just one touchdown in their last 11 quarters of play and have yet to pass for over 100 yards against an FBS opponent.

In those three games against absolutely putrid offenses, Arizona State is allowing 12.3 points, 93.3 passing yards and 116.3 rushing yards per game. Those numbers don't really translate though, just looking at how they allowed 27 points, 217 passing yards and 144 rushing yards to BYU. Basically all their stats show is that they are considerably better than bad teams, rather than being a predictive or useful measuring stick for their more serious, big games.

The mistakes have been prevalent throughout the season, however.

Arizona State ranks dead last in the country with 43 total penalties on the season, averaging almost 11 per game, and the same goes for their 409 yards sacrificed on penalties. More than half of those penalties have come on offense, yes, but eight penalties leading to 84 yards to Colorado is something that just won't fly against UCLA.

The Sun Devils' run defense is also susceptible, and opposing teams know it. In their last two games, BYU and Colorado ran the ball against them 83 times compared to 45 pass attempts. Even though Arizona State gave up just 3.9 yards per carry across those games, they allowed a total of 327 rushing yards in them. They've allowed more yards on the ground every week, with the Buffaloes racking up 183 in Week 4.

Taking out the game against Southern Utah, since it's an FCS program, the Sun Devils have forced a total of two turnovers in their other three games. 5.0 of their 12.0 sacks came against winless Mountain West bottom feeder UNLV, leaving them at a more mediocre 2.3 sacks per game across their other three outings.

All of this isn't to say Arizona State's defense is bad, just that what good we have seen from them can easily be chalked up to a weak group of opponents in the first third of the season.

Experience is their biggest strength, especially in the secondary. Starting cornerbacks Chase Lucas and Jack Jones are both sixth-year seniors, as is safety DeAndre Pierce. The opposite safety, Evan Fields, is in his fifth year, and even the youngest of the bunch, nickel cornerback Timarcus Davis, is a junior.

The starting trio of linebackers in Antonio Pierce's 4-3 base set are also all seniors. Robertson, Darien Butler and Kyle Soelle are top-three on the team in tackles and are good at getting in the backfield too.

With defensive linemen Jermayne Lole and Travez Moore out for the year, Arizona State doesn't boast as fearsome of a pass rush as they would have at full strength. DJ Davidson and Shannon Foreman bring size to the table if nothing else, both weighing in at over 300 pounds, although they've combined for just 0.5 sacks through four games. BJ Green and Joe Moore are really the only linemen who have made consistent contributions in the pass rush with their 3.5 combined sacks, as no others have more than 1.0 sack so far this season.

The physicality Arizona State poses up front will be a challenge for UCLA's offensive line, and working against the most experienced secondary they're going to face all year is going to make creating space difficult for guys in the slot, outside the numbers and at tight end.

Whether it's crossing patterns, pulling guards or pick plays, the Bruins are going to have to scheme their way though this one. It's entirely possible and ultimately pretty probable that UCLA puts up a lot of points in this one, even if it is contingent on not making unforced errors and instead letting Arizona State rack up the mishaps.

The Bruins have only coughed up the ball three times in four games, so another 30-plus-point performance could very well be in the cards this weekend.

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