Can Chip Kelly's Six Years at UCLA Even Be Considered Mediocre?

AD Martin Jarmond needs to act swiftly before Big Ten play begins...

The dictionary definition of the word 'mediocre' is as follows: of only moderate quality; not very good.

When related to a sports team or program, the word essentially is akin to being average. Over his six-year tenure as the UCLA Football head coach, Chip Kelly has gone 34-34 (.500). This would be plainly average -- or mediocre -- at first glance. 

Some will point to the fact that Kelly has gone 23-14 over his last 37 games. This fact is seemingly embedded in the narrative that Kelly is moving this program in the right direction. 

However, there's another narrative hanging in the proverbial balance. This one centers on one clear statement: Chip Kelly's tenure at UCLA has been below average. As such, it's time for him to be relieved of his services. 

Six full seasons. 34-34. 7-28 against winning teams. Hasn't even sniffed a conference championship. Benefitted from three of the weakest schedules in UCLA history and lost at least four games each of those seasons. This should be **done**.

— David Woods (@daviddavidwoods) November 26, 2023

UCLA looked downright abysmal in a 33-7 loss at home to rival Cal this past Saturday evening. The Bruins turned the ball over four times and allowed six sacks to a team that averaged less than 1.5 sacks a game heading in. UCLA also went 1-5 in the red zone -- which aligns with the team's ineptness in this category (Kelly's team is dead-last in FBS in red-zone efficiency).  

Chip Kelly: “I don’t think it’s a trend in the last few games cause we were outstanding in the red zone a week ago.”

Here’s how UCLA fared in the red zone in November:

@ AZ: 2/5
vs. ASU: 1/3
@ USC: 5/6
vs. Cal: 1/5

UCLA’s RZ percentage this season is .618 (last in the FBS). pic.twitter.com/LbCbM9sVlR

— Sam Connon (@SamConnon) November 26, 2023

With the loss, UCLA finished the regular season with a 7-5 record. A bowl game (likely the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana) awaits. The Bruins lost three of their last four games. 

Losses at home to Arizona State and Cal essentially canceled out UCLA's dominant win over USC at the Coliseum last weekend. The Bruins were held to seven points in both games. 

To put this into perspective, Cal allowed 32.7 PPG (113th nationally) on the year. Arizona State relinquished 31.8 PPG (110th nationally). Even with UCLA's QB position dealing with various injuries, the Bruins should've at least been competitive in these home games against two opponents many would objectively consider to be inferior. Even more damning, Kelly is widely considered to be an offensive genius of sorts. Schematically, we certainly didn't see that sort of prowess in the two losses. 

UCLA High School Recruiting Rankings By Year Under Kelly (per 247Sports)

2019: 40th

2020: 33rd

2021: 32nd

2022: 61st

2023: 37th

2024 (as of Nov. 26): 56th

Would be nice to have confidence that @MartinJarmond understood how toxic the thing had become.

The thought of Chip running this program in the Big Ten is an agonizing one.

— Mark Schipper - 5th Down CFB (@5thDownCFB) November 26, 2023

As detailed above, recruiting continues to be an issue. This in and of itself is perplexing considering the location of UCLA's campus, the prestige from an academic standpoint, and the history/tradition of UCLA producing NFL players. 25 ex-Bruins are currently on NFL rosters. This number ranks among the upper echelon in the Pac-12. 

While the game of recruiting has changed considerably, effort must be shown. Having the ability to fundraise money, rub elbows with donors, and essentially 'play the game' away from the field is now a responsibility every head coach must bear. Kelly seems almost reticent to do so for whatever reason. Being able to promote your program can only lead to enhanced resources -- and thus more money to secure recruits/prevent current players from seeking a greater payday elsewhere. 

Generally speaking, the NIL program for UCLA Football isn't what it truthfully needs to be in order for the program to maximize its potential -- especially with the impending move to the Big Ten. Can Kelly rev up enough excitement from the beaten-down fan base to really make a difference? Or, would UCLA be better served hiring another head coach, thereby creating some buzz and thus dollars from invested donors?

If we compare Kelly to the coach who preceded him (Jim Mora), it's an interesting story: 

Jim Mora's career record at UCLA: 46-30

Chip Kelly's career record at UCLA: 34-34

Mora's tenure may have ended poorly, but he did do things to help the program grow. Based on his efforts to help the ecosystem, he helped raise enough money to fund a state-of-the-art practice facility. Mora even reportedly put in some of his own cash to help expedite the project.

Mora led the Bruins to impressive bowl victories over Virginia Tech and Kansas State. He went on the road and earned signature wins over Texas, Nebraska, Utah (twice), Washington, Virginia, Oregon, Texas A&M, and Arizona State. Mora also had a period with three-straight wins over USC. 

Recruiting-wise, Mora's hauled in multiple top-10 classes from a national standpoint. At the very worst, Mora-led recruiting classes were roughly top-25 entities. 

In six years, Kelly has not won a bowl game at UCLA. As shown above, he's not signed one recruiting class with a top-30 standing nationally. While recruiting rankings aren't entirely emblematic of a successful program, we've seen enough data to suggest that teams with more four and five-star prospects tend to compete at a higher level (look at Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon, for example). 

Chip Kelly touted his 23-14 record in the last three seasons last night, which includes three of the weakest UCLA schedules since 1954 and the only two FCS programs UCLA has ever faced. Even granting that, 23-14 is a 62% winning percentage, or basically 7-5 in a 12 game schedule.

— David Woods (@daviddavidwoods) November 26, 2023

Mora went 9-14 in his final two years before being let go. Kelly -- as he mentioned in the postgame loss to Cal -- has gone 23-14 the last three years after starting 10-21. You'd think Kelly is pushing the program in the right direction. With that said, that number is a bit misleading. 

Nearly a fourth of those wins over the last three years came in the state of California against non-conference foes in Alabama State, North Carolina Central, South Alabama, San Diego State, Bowling Green, and Coastal Carolina. With respect to those schools, that's not exactly a Murderer's Row of competition. The last three years are regarded as three of the easiest schedules in the history of the program. Mora had two 10-win years, but Kelly has been unable to attain one of those.  

You could point to a number of marquee wins in the Mora era. Where are those coming from in the Kelly era? The win at home last year over Utah was a good one. Beating a flawed LSU team at home was noteworthy. Beating Washington at home in Kalen DeBoer's first year with the program was solid. 

However, it pales in comparison to what Mora did. Mora won on the road versus ranked opposition. Up to this point, Kelly has failed to do so. Recruiting is still in the toilet, NIL donations appear down, and the attitude of the fan base right now is not great. One look at any major social media platform will showcase the collective frustration and anger towards UCLA at this present time. 

Also -- where is AD Martin Jarmond? You'd think he'd make some public statement as to the status of Kelly. If he intends on keeping it, that would -- in theory -- help to solidify the recruiting class and those planning on leaving the roster. If he plans on moving off Kelly, he should probably do it quickly. Jonathan Smith was an ideal UCLA candidate, However, the Southern California native left Oregon State for Michigan State. The longer UCLA waits to make a move, the smaller a potential head coach pool becomes. 

The fact is, UCLA has gone 7-28 versus winning teams under Kelly. The Bruins finished in 8th place in the Pac-12 standings this year. Attendance throughout the Kelly tenure has been pathetic. General interest in the program is even lower than it was...and that's saying something. 

In Year 6, how is this even acceptable? 

Things might get really dicey next year with a ridiculously difficult schedule, not to mention the expected departure of All-American DL Laiatu Latu and a host of other prominent defensive players. 

There's no sugarcoating the situation: UCLA has to fire Chip Kelly immediately. If he's kept on for another year, this program might crater faster than anyone could've ever imagined. 

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