Connon: UCLA is (Technically) a College Football Playoff Contender

Starting 2-0 is the first step for any team that hopes to fight for one of the four spots atop the college football world.

As outlandish and hilarious as it's been to see pundits and talking heads peg the Bruins as a playoff threat, it technically isn't an incorrect take.

No. 16 UCLA football (2-0) blew out Hawaii 44-10 in Week 0 before defending its home turf once again versus then-No. 16 LSU in Week 1. The pair of victories shot the Bruins up the rankings, with nine AP voters placing them inside the top 10 and Kansas City Star/Wichita Eagle reporter Kellis Robinett actually putting them all the way up at No. 5.

CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd has UCLA one spot out of the playoffs if the season ended today, ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit and Jesse Palmer have brought them up as a potential College Football Playoff dark horse and J. Brady McCullough of the Los Angeles Times wrote an article about how the Bruins are now poised to be a playoff contender. ESPN's SP+ czar Bill Connelly has UCLA as the No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff for the time being.

Just two weeks ago, people were hesitant to predict eight wins for this team. It was a hot take to put them in the top three of the Pac-12 South, and now, it's the norm to crown them as an early division champion.

Considering how UCLA has largely flown under the national radar over the past three seasons, it's understandable why many didn't give them a real shot to start the year. The egregious flip-flopping is entertaining to watch from the inside, but it isn't as if it's not well-deserved.

The Bruins are averaging 233.5 rushing yards per game while allowing just 37.5. Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson owns a Pac-12-best 174.9 passer rating. Jerry Azzinaro and Brian Norwood's defense looks more disruptive than even the 2020 squad, and both lines have shown they can physically and schematically dominate top-tier size and talent.

At this point, the Bruins are capable of defeating anyone left on their schedule. No. 12 Oregon, No. 14 USC, No. 21 Utah, No. 23 Arizona State, Washington and Fresno State all stand to pose tough matchups, especially with half of those games coming on the road, but UCLA is right up there with them and wouldn't open as anything more than a 3-point underdog if those games were played this Saturday.

Putting jinxing aside and diving headfirst into highly unlikely hypotheticals, let's say UCLA finishes the regular season undefeated.

The Bruins would win the Pac-12 South and then go up against either Oregon, Washington, Stanford or Cal, all teams they would have already beaten at that point and could surely defeat again. A Pac-12 championship game victory – the first ever for the program – would put UCLA at 13-0 with a Power Five conference title and nonconference wins over an SEC powerhouse and two Mountain West teams.

If that isn't worthy of a College Football Playoff appearance, what is? 

All of this is crazy to even consider talking about, if we're being completely honest. The odds of this all playing out are pretty darn small – according to ESPN's FPI, the Bruins' chances of winning out are 0.5%. ESPN is actually a little more generous to UCLA when it comes to making the College Football Playoff, giving it a 0.7% chance of securing a spot in the four-team tournament, but it's less than a 1-in-100 shot regardless.

Still, the path remains wide open for the Bruins.

Of the 28 teams to make the College Football Playoff since it started, all but one of them – 2014 Ohio State – started the season 2-0. Whether or not it's a sign of things to come, starting the season with a couple wins is the first step towards making the playoffs.

Playoff teams need to start hot, win consistently and finish strong.

UCLA has checked off the first box, and now there are 10 or 11 games left for the Bruins to take care of business and prove their worthiness.

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