Pac-12 Football Bowl Predictions 2021

Previewing and picking the winners of every Pac-12 matchup on the slate for the postseason.

The postseason has arrived, and half of the Conference of Champions is still kicking.

UCLA football (8-4, 6-3 Pac-12) finished tied for third in the Pac-12 this season and is one of six programs set to play in a bowl this month. The Bruins will be heading down to San Diego for the SDCCU Holiday Bowl to face NC State, while their in-conference foes will also be making trips around the country to play their respective bowl games.

After beating Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game, Utah will play Ohio State in the Rose Bowl and the Ducks will face Oklahoma with both teams having made a coaching change since the end of the regular season. Oregon State, Washington State and Arizona State were all bowl eligible as well.

Here are All Bruins' picks for each of the contests including a Pac-12 team this bowl season:

Oregon State (7-5, 5-4) vs. Utah State (10-3, 6-2)

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Dec. 18, 4:30 p.m. PT
Inglewood, California
Line: Oregon State, -7*

The Beavers have had quite the up and down year. At times, it looked like they had the best offense in the west, but at others, they stumbled and fell to subpar teams. Triumphs over USC and Washington, two teams in the preseason AP top 25, looked promising at the start, but it turns out those weren't exactly quality wins. Oregon State was the only Pac-12 team to beat Utah this season, but then they followed up that result with losses to Cal and Colorado. The Beavers' ability to run the ball is ultimately going to decide this game, as they are 7-2 when they break 200 yards and 0-3 when they do not.

The Aggies haven't had the rollercoaster season the Beavers had, but even the Mountain West champions had a few hiccups along the way this fall. A loss to a ranked BYU team back in September is nothing to be ashamed of, but dropping games to middling Boise State and Wyoming certainly stained an otherwise really solid year for their program – Utah State had double-digit wins for the fourth time in 10 years.

The Aggies are 10-1 when passing for more than 215 yards and 6-0 when going for 315 or more, while the Beavers are 3-5 when giving up 170 or more. Utah State's passing attack will outpace Oregon State's ground game in this one, and the Aggies will come out on top.

Straight Up: Utah State
Against the Spread: Utah State

UCLA (8-4, 6-3) vs. No. 18 NC State (9-3, 6-2)

SDCCU Holiday Bowl
Dec. 28, 8 p.m. PT
San Diego, California
Line: NC State, -1*

The Bruins are playing in their first bowl under coach Chip Kelly and are looking to clinch nine wins for the first time since 2014. If they're going to do it down at Petco Park, they're going to do it on the ground – that's how UCLA handled LSU in September and how they finished undefeated in November. Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the top dual-threat on the West Coast, putting up career numbers across the board in what is likely his final go-round on the college level, and he'll have transfer power duo Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown with him in the backfield. Tight end Greg Dulcich and receiver Kyle Philips are always reliable, and Swiss Army knife Kazmeir Allen has only gotten more dangerous as the season has gone on. The issue won't be points for this Bruin squad, as they have broken 30 points in nine of the 11 games Thompson-Robinson started. Instead, the UCLA defense ranks in the bottom half of the country in yards and points allowed, and they have been especially vulnerable through the air over the past few seasons under defensive coordinator Jerry Azzinaro.

That should play right into NC State's hands, as the Wolfpack boast one of the most productive quarterbacks in the country in Devin Leary, who has a 35-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and was arguably the second-best passer in the ACC this fall behind Pitt's Heisman finalist Kenny Pickett. NC State also has a defense that ranks inside the top 20 in preventing its opponents from scoring and is allowing just 88.2 rushing yards per game in the second half of the season. Since a Week 2 loss to Mississippi State, the Wolfpack's only two losses came by one and three points, and they rank No. 10 in point differential this season among Power Five teams.

Maybe the Bruins dial up a similar defensive game plan and effort to the one they brought to the table throughout November, when they limited Colorado, USC and Cal to 22.3 points per game 205.3 passing yards per game, a 57% completion percentage and a 101.0 combined passer rating. But considering Leary has played 10 straight games with a passer rating over 130 and has 32 touchdowns and nearly 3,000 yards in that time frame alone, it seems unlikely UCLA will be able to shut him down enough to take complete control of the game.

Straight Up: NC State
Against the Spread: NC State

No. 15 Oregon (10-3, 7-2) vs. No. 14 Oklahoma (10-2, 7-2)

Valero Alamo Bowl
Dec. 29, 6:15 p.m. PT
San Antonio, Texas
Line: Oklahoma, -4.5*

The ending to the Ducks' season was just one tough blow after the next. With a path paved for them to the College Football Playoffs, Oregon lost to Utah, struggled against Oregon State, then lost to Utah again with a spot in the Rose Bowl on the line. After that, coach Mario Cristobal left for Miami (FL), Cal's Justin Wilcox spurned them and elite edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux opted out of the bowl to get ready for the NFL Draft. There probably isn't a colder 10-win team in America, and even with the future bright in Eugene with Georgia defensive coordinator Dan Lanning taking over as head coach, that won't do them many favors this month.

Oklahoma experienced some similar losses, as coach Lincoln Riley leaving the Sooners for USC started a domino effect that shook up the coaching carousel big time and left them empty-handed for a while. Recruits decommitted, preseason Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler transferred and the program just had an over rough couple of weeks. Oklahoma, like Oregon, hired a promising young coordinator to take over next year, one who won't be able to do much to help in this game, but as long as Caleb Williams is on the team and doesn't transfer out as well, the Sooners will have the heavy talent advantage in this one.

Straight Up: Oklahoma
Against the Spread: Oklahoma

Arizona State (8-4, 6-3) vs. Wisconsin (8-4, 6-3)

Las Vegas Bowl
Dec. 30, 7:30 p.m. PT
Las Vegas, Nevada
Line: Wisconsin, -7*

There were moments where it seemed like Arizona State was going to be the top team in the Pac-12 South this season. A 5-1 start, featuring a win over then-ranked UCLA, positioned them well, but a loss to Utah set them back and a loss to Washington State the week after really ended their hopes at making a real run. Quarterback Jayden Daniels took another step back as a passer, and the offense as a whole stalled, despite running back Rachaad White breaking out. Coach Herm Edwards' defense was the real standout, though, boasting one of the best units in the conference and a top 25 group in the country.

The fact that this was one of the worst seasons the Badgers have had under coach Paul Chryst is a testament to how consistent they've been over the past seven years. Wisconsin has recovered from a rough 1-3 start to the year, though, rattling off seven wins in a row before dropping the regular season finale to Minnesota on the road. They did that despite quarterback Graham Mertz, who had a negative touchdown-to-interception ratio, a completion percentage under 60% and a sub-120 passer rating this year, all while finishing with negative rushing yards. Even with that though, the recipe for success on the Badgers side is simple – they're 6-0 when allowing fewer than 199 passing yards and 7-0 when rushing for 198 or more.

Interestingly enough, though, Arizona State is 6-1 when passing for fewer than 200 yards and they've only allowed their opponents to rush for over 200 yards on three occasions. This will be a very good matchup in terms of the Sun Devils and Badgers strengths and weaknesses, and it could come down to the last few possessions.

Straight Up: Wisconsin
Against the Spread: Arizona State

Washington State (7-5, 6-3) vs. Miami (FL) (7-5, 5-3)

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Dec. 31, 9 a.m. PT
El Paso, Texas
Line: Miami, -2*

One of the most tense situations in football turned into one of the better underdog stories in the country this year in the form of the Cougars. Coach Nick Rolovich not getting the COVID-19 vaccine became the dominant storyline around the team from Pac-12 Media Day on. When the state's mandate went into effect in October, the saga was finally put to an end, and Jake Dickert took over. The team actually playing on the field was playing pretty well even with the Rolovich noise around them, and they took another step forward once that weight was lifted off the program – the Cougars finished the season 6-2 and has broken 30 points in five of those contests behind quarterback Jayden de Laura.

Miami also had a slow start to the year, going 1-2 in a brutal nonconference slate that included games versus No. 1 Alabama and No. 11 Michigan State. Opening ACC play with losses to North Carolina and Virginia certainly didn't help, and through Oct. 16, the Hurricanes were 2-4 with their wins coming by two points over Appalachian State and against FCS program Central Connecticut State. But Miami managed to end the year on a 5-1 tear by quarterback Tyler Van Dyke emerging to replace the dinged up D'Eriq King, and they had some real momentum, even if it was too little too late. The Hurricanes fired Manny Diaz and brought in Mario Cristobal, so without the coach who powered them to the torrid finish, they're really going to be leaning on Van Dyke putting up video game numbers again.

Straight Up: Washington State
Against the Spread: Washington State

No. 10 Utah (10-3, 8-1) vs. No. 7 Ohio State (10-2, 8-1)

Rose Bowl
Jan. 1, 2 p.m. PT
Pasadena, California
Line: Ohio State, -6.5*

For the first time ever, the Utes are headed to the Rose Bowl, as they strung together one of their most successful seasons in program history and now have a chance to solidify it at the very top. Nonconference losses to BYU and San Diego State in September, coming by a combined 11 points, really set Utah back to start the year, but once Pac-12 got rolling, they took a major leap forward. Utah has won nine of its last 10 games, boasting an average margin of victory of 18.1 points in those contests. In terms of points, the Utes are one of eight FBS teams to rank in the top 25 on offense and defense.

One of the other teams is Ohio State, though, which is averaging the most points per game in the nation at 45.5. Freshman quarterback CJ Stroud was a Heisman Trophy finalist and Chris Olave is one of the best receivers in the country, and the Buckeyes also only have one loss since the start of October. That loss came to playoff-bound Michigan on the road in the snow, so it isn't as if Ohio State fell off a cliff this season – under Ryan Day, they're still one of the most talented rosters in the country and they have the production to back it up.

Playing the transitive game is always messy, but Ohio State lost to Oregon in September, then Utah beat a healthier version of that Oregon twice in November by a combined 59 points. As much of a Goliath that the Buckeyes seem to always be, the Utes should not be mistaken for a Cinderella story or a team that failed its way up through a messy conference. Utah has been playing better than almost anyone in the country over the past two months, and they'll put that on full display on New Year's Day.

Straight Up: Utah
Against the Spread: Utah

*Odds via SI Sportsbook

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