UCLA vs. USC College Football Predictions: Week 12

The All Bruins staff made their picks for how Saturday's game against the Trojans is going to go down.

One of the highest-stakes crosstown rivalry games in years has finally arrived.

No. 16 UCLA football (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12) will play No. 7 USC (9-1, 7-1 Pac-12) at the Rose Bowl on Saturday. The Bruins enter the game as 1.5-point favorites coming off a crushing upset loss to Arizona, while the Trojans are the Pac-12's last remaining hope at sneaking into the College Football Playoff.

All Bruins is making its picks for who will win, what the score will be and how the game will play out, courtesy of Managing Editor Sam Connon and contributing writer Benjamin Royer.

Sam Connon, Managing Editor

Prediction: USC 52, UCLA 48

In some ways, last week’s loss to Arizona was a fluke.

UCLA has one of the best offenses in the country, and failing to break 30 points for the first time all year was surely a surprise. Going against a USC defense that is one of the most porous in the West, the Bruins are bound to bounce back with big offensive numbers again.

Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has started three games against the Trojans in his career. In those games, he owns a 185.3 passer rating and 70.6% completion percentage to go along with his 14 total touchdowns and 1,240 total yards of offense.

Coming off a loss and hoping to recreate the magic he put on display last year against USC, fans can expect him to show out big time on Saturday.

Running back Zach Charbonnet may actually be UCLA’s most productive weapon, though, and now that he’s back to full health, he should put up gaudy stats himself. Charbonnet is averaging 189.8 scrimmage yards per game during conference play, and he has already notched 12 rushing touchdowns this season despite missing two games.

All of that being said, UCLA is not exactly in a prime position to win this one.

Throughout most of conference play, the Bruins’ defense has been steadily regressing. Last week’s crushing defensive outing against the Wildcats was no fluke, and the Trojans are more than capable of exploiting those same shortcomings themselves.

Quarterback Caleb Williams is the real deal, and even without running back Travis Dye, he’ll have plenty of weapons to turn to throughout the night. Williams’ already high ceiling will be raised by playing a lackluster secondary and linebacker corps that struggles with playmaking and improvising passers like him, so he could very well beat out Thompson-Robinson in the quarterback battle of the year.

UCLA has proven this year that it can finally compete in big games, shown in wins over Washington and Utah earlier in the conference slate. But just because they can, doesn’t mean they will.

The Bruins were contending for a College Football Playoff spot a week ago, and now they’re clinging onto their last crumb of hope for even making the Pac-12 title game. The changed stakes and hangover from last week’s loss likely won’t be the main reason UCLA falls to USC on Saturday, but it would certainly fit into the program's tendency to blow ideal circumstances over the past few decades.

It will be a close game, as well as a high-scoring and entertaining one, but ultimately not one the Bruins will come out on top of.

Benjamin Royer, contributing writer

Prediction: USC 48, UCLA 31

Before the complete collapse against Arizona, I was pretty confident about UCLA’s chances against USC.

However, bad habits breed bad losses. And on Saturday evening, the Bruins will fall back into their old ways and fall to the Trojans in the process.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t a few advantages working in favor of the blue and gold, though.

USC has struggled on the road in 2022. Games against Oregon State – a tight win – and Utah – their lone loss of the year – showed that Lincoln Riley’s squad may be underprepared for loud atmospheres.

The Rose Bowl will need to have a pro-Bruin crowd for that to occur this weekend, and it seems like that will actually be the case. The largest student crowd in school history – estimated at 16,700 fans – will be in attendance, as well as a sellout crowd overall.

In order to take advantage of homefield and control the flow of the game, UCLA’s offense will need to feed off of the support and start hot against USC’s questionable defense.

The Trojans give up 394.2 yards per game, and Chip Kelly is going to need to exploit the defensive flaws of his crosstown rival if a victory is going to be in the cards. This will likely be Dorian Thompson-Robinson‘s final game at the Rose Bowl, too, and he will surely be looking to recreate his game-breaking performance from last year’s crosstown showdwon.

The Bruins’ struggles keeping points off the board are likely going to be a focal point of the game, though, so to keep the game close, consistent scoring is going to be vital.

UCLA defensive coordinator Bill McGovern is still unavailable – for the time being – and if analyst Clancy Pandergast is going to continue playcalling similarly to the past three games, the blue and gold could be in for a rude awakening.

Oregon is probably the most similar offensive team to USC that UCLA has faced this year, and they struggled to stop the big plays in that game. That does not seem likely to change, given the current defensive setup and limitations created by injuries.

That will ultimately be UCLA’s achilles heel Saturday, and their offense won’t be able to keep pace as the game goes on.

A loss to the Trojans will be demoralizing and as discourse moves onward toward 2023, the gap between USC and UCLA will grow in almost every imaginable way.

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