Connon: UCLA Men's Basketball Has High Ceiling, Low Floor For NCAA Tournament

The Bruins could repeat last year's Final Four run, take it one step further, or easily fall short of those March Madness heights.

It isn't exactly a hot take to say anything can happen in March.

But when it comes to the Bruins' path through the Big Dance this spring, it really rings true.

No. 4 seed UCLA men's basketball (25-7, 15-5 Pac-12) is in an interesting position heading into the NCAA tournament. After opening the season as the No. 2 team in the country and holding down a top-three spot as late as early February, the Bruins fell as far No. 17 in the polls and wound up getting the No. 13 overall seed from the selection committee.

Still, UCLA stands at No. 8 in the KenPom rankings, as well as No. 10 in the RPI, BPI, NET and BARTHAG. In every major metric besides strength of record, the Bruins are a top-10 team, and even in SOR, they're No. 15.

So as a bona fide top-10 team, UCLA stands out as a real contender to win its 12th national championship in program history. The oddsmakers on SI Sportsbook gave the Bruins the 11th-best odds to win it all.

All that stood between UCLA and its first banner in 27 years last year was a historic overtime buzzer-beater by Gonzaga in the Final Four and a much-anticipated matchup with Baylor in the finals. They were inches away last year, and they're better in every measurable sense in 2022.

At the same time, this is March, and there is no easy path for the Bruins.

A first-round matchup with No. 13 seed Akron should be a cakewalk for UCLA, who enters as a 13.5-point favorite. Still, 13-over-4 upsets do happen – Purdue and Virginia fell victim to them last year – and they've happened in just about 21.5% of the matchups since 1985.

In all likelihood, UCLA will play No. 5 seed St. Mary's in the Round of 32. The top-20 Gaels beat Gonzaga in February, something the Bruins were unable to do back in November. Again, UCLA will be the favorite in that potential matchup, but No. 5 seeds advance past the first two rounds 34% of the time compared to No. 4 seeds' 46.5% mark, so not exactly a massive advantage for the blue and gold in that sense.

A Sweet 16 trip is obviously far from a pipe dream, though, and the Bruins will more than likely end up making it to that second weekend in Philadelphia. Once they get there, UCLA will probably be facing No. 1 seed Baylor.

The Bears are arguably the weakest No. 1 seed, but they pose matchup problems for a Bruin team that has struggled against athleticism. Baylor is without big man Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and speedy guard LJ Cryer, so they don't have the length and scoring that Arizona used to beat up UCLA in the past month, but the all-around abilities and dynamism of their long wings will still present a major threat.

That is probably where the Bruins' tournament run will meet its end: The Sweet 16, former stomping grounds of one Steve Alford. After going to the Final Four last year and making the team's first Pac-12 title game since 2014 last weekend, Mick Cronin will have already proven to be more successful in Westwood than his predecessor, it would just be a little disappointing to see a team with such grand expectations make it to only the third round.

But make no mistake – those expectations from the preseason and from late January aren't out the door just yet.

An upset over Baylor is very much in the cards. If that happens, who's to say UCLA can't also beat Kentucky or Purdue in the Elite Eight?

A trip to the Final Four would probably match them up with a Gonzaga team they lost to last March and last November, but the Bruins have grown a lot since the fall. And if a win is in play there, a trip to the title game puts them 40 minutes away from cutting down the nets on the biggest stage in the sport.

A No. 4 seed has only won the national championship once in the last 36 years, but as detailed earlier, UCLA was underseeded on Sunday.

Every national champion in the KenPom era – since 2002 – has been in both the top 20 in defensive efficiency and top 40 in offensive efficiency. The Bruins are one of nine teams that fit that bill, ranking No. 14 in offensive efficiency and No. 12 in defensive efficiency.

According to FanDuel editor Austin Swaim, 25 of the last 32 national champions entered the season in the top 12 of the polls. That narrows the list to only UCLA, Gonzaga, Texas and Baylor.

Additionally, only one conference tournament champion has won the NCAA tournament since 2014, knocking Gonzaga off the list.

If simple metrics, records and trends can be overlapped to make the Bruins one of the true contenders for a national title, that's because they are. Their only losses this year came to No. 1 seed Gonzaga, No. 1 seed Arizona, a shorthanded road game at Arizona State, another shorthanded road game at Oregon and a home game against Oregon with no fans only a few days removed from a one-month COVID-19 hiatus.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has reinvented his game and is averaging 22.3 points and 7.5 rebounds a night in his last six outings. Jules Bernard is averaging 16.7 points on 45.5% shooting from deep and 93.1% from the line in those same six games.

Johnny Juzang was averaging 19 points and 5.2 rebounds on .461/.386/.889 shooting splits in his 11 appearances prior to him going down with an ankle injury against Oregon. He finally got his feet back under him Saturday by scoring 16 points against Arizona, and another week of rest could put him back in line to be that All-American-type player he's proven to be on offense.

Tyger Campbell has one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios in the nation. Myles Johnson is one of the longest and most disruptive big men in the country. Jaylen Clark averaged 19.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.7 steals per game while shooting over 60% from the field in a week where his teammates were coming and going from the lineup on a whim.

David Singleton and Jake Kyman are knock-down shooters. Cody Riley was a March Madness hero in 2021, and even Kenny Nwuba played key minutes in the Elite Eight last year against Michigan.

Campbell, Juzang and Jaquez were recognized as top-five players at their position, and the defensive trio of Johnson, Clark and Peyton Watson has crushed teams with their length, athleticism and instincts.

Even without all of these players' health and peaks lining up in recent weeks, the Bruins have still won eight of their last 10 entering the Big Dance. If Cronin can get all his ducks in a row and line things up perfectly the way he did last year, this UCLA team absolutely has what it takes to win the whole thing in 2022.

But keep in mind, that doesn't mean the Bruins are a lock to go far, or even make it past the second round. This is March, after all.

Expect the unexpected, and don't be shocked any time UCLA wins or loses any of these upcoming do-or-die showdowns.

Well, unless they lose to Akron. Even for March Madness, that would be a little crazy.

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