Men's Basketball Postseason Outlook
After winning six of their final seven games to close out the regular season, the Huskies are looking to make some noise in postseason play. First up is the Big East Tournament. The Huskies’ 13-6 record in the conference was good enough for the three seed and a first-round bye in the Big East tourney.
Even if Connecticut goes one and done in the Big East tournament, it will get an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Let’s first break down the Huskies’ chances in the Big East tourney and then take a look at where this team may land in the NCAA tournament bracket.
Big East Quarterfinals Preview
On Thursday night at Madison Square Garden, the Huskies will take on the winner of sixth-seeded Seton Hall and 11th-seeded Georgetown in the Big East quarterfinals.
Considering Georgetown was 0-19 in the Big East this season, it is pretty safe to assume that UConn will be facing its rivals from Newark on Thursday night.
The Huskies split the season series with Seton Hall. The first matchup was in early January in Newark, and it was an incredible overtime thriller in which Seton Hall won 90-87. The Huskies got their revenge at home in mid-February, beating the Pirates 70-65 in Storrs. It is reasonable to expect a very close rubber match on a neutral court, given the two tight games the two teams played in the regular season.
Assuming this is the quarterfinal matchup, the Huskies will need to limit the turnovers in order to advance to the semis. In January’s overtime loss to the Pirates, UConn turned the ball over 19 times, while Seton Hall only gave away the ball 12 times. It is a good sign that the Huskies were able to keep the game tight despite the number of turnovers, but it is tough to beat a good team like Seton Hall when you are minus-7 in the turnover battle. Connecticut turned the ball over at a 17.6% rate in conference play this year, which ranks seventh out of 11 in the Big East. They will need to at least minimize those mistakes against a team that can force turnovers.
That being said, this would be a massive game for the UConn guards. Head coach Dan Hurley will rely on R.J. Cole and Tyrese Martin to control the game and limit the giveaways. Cole and Martin present strong numbers when it comes to taking care of the basketball, with respective turnover rates of 13.7% and 15.6%. For comparison, Andre Jackson has a turnover rate of 27.9%. He will need to do a much better job at taking care of the ball if the Huskies have any hopes of cutting down the nets this month. This would also be a huge game for the Connecticut guards on the defensive end. Seton Hall’s top three scorers are its three 6-foot-6 guards: Jared Rhoden (16.2 points per game), Myles Cale (9.3), and Kadary Richmond (8.8). The Huskies’ backcourt would have the tough task of defending them. Martin and Jackson, who are both 6-foot-6, will be relied upon heavily to defend Seton Hall’s big guards.
The Huskies will also look to dominate inside if they play Seton Hall for a third time this year.
UConn out-rebounded Seton Hall 40-25 in the January matchup and then 41-31 in the February contest. UConn ranks as the third-best team in the entire country in offensive rebounding rate (37.6%). In conference play, Seton Hall has allowed the fourth-highest offensive rebounding rate in the conference to its Big East opponents (30.4%).
Much of UConn’s success on the glass this season can be attributed to Kareem-Abdul-Jabbar Award finalist Adama Sanogo, who is averaging 15.3 points, 8.6 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game. Sanogo had 20 points, 16 rebounds, and three blocks in the February win over Seton Hall. The Huskies will look for him to have another big game this time around and to lead the team to another dominating performance on the boards.
Can the Huskies Take Down Nova Again?
If Connecticut can get past the quarterfinals, it would likely face second-seeded Villanova in the Big East semifinals. The Huskies squeaked out a 71-69 win over Nova at home - a game in which Hurley was ejected early - on Feb. 22. The Wildcats cruised to an 85-74 victory when the two teams faced off in Philadelphia on Feb. 5.
The difference the second time around for the Huskies was winning the turnover battle. Villanova is one of the better teams in America at taking care of the basketball with a 15.5% turnover rate (29th in the NCAA). However, UConn was able to win the turnover battle 14-8 when these two teams squared off a couple of weeks ago. In their two matchups this season, UConn has the edge in the turnover battle overall at 28-23. If it can keep up this ball security display against the Wildcats, Connecticut should be able to at least keep things close in a potential third meeting.
UConn would also have to do its best to keep Villanova off the three-point arc in this matchup. The Wildcats have shot 36.6% on threes this season (46th in the NCAA), but just 50.7% on twos (134th). Nova shot 54.5% from downtown in its win over the Huskies in Philly. UConn is also light years better at defending the two than it is defending the three. For the season, the Huskies have held opponents to a 42.8% shooting percentage on twos (sixth in the NCAA), but have allowed opponents to shoot at a 34.5% clip on threes (229th). It is safe to say that the Huskies would want Villanova taking two-pointers as opposed to threes. UConn will need to keep super-senior and super-star Collin Gillespie from heating up from deep. Gillespie made six threes in the two games against the Huskies this season and presents as Villanova’s best offensive player. If the Huskies can contain him, they will have a shot to play for a Big East Championship.
Huskies’ NCAA Tournament Position
Regardless of what happens in The Garden this weekend, UConn is a lock to be in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies are one of the better teams in the nation and have wins over top teams such as Auburn and Villanova. As of March 7, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi currently has UConn ranked 18th in the country and as a five seed for March Madness.
That number can either improve, worsen, or stay the same depending on how the Huskies perform in the Big East Tournament.
If the Huskies fall to Seton Hall in the quarterfinals of the Big East tourney, they would likely drop to a six or seven seed for the tournament, depending on how close the game is. If the Huskies get past the quarterfinals but lose to Villanova in the Big East semis, then they will likely stay where they are as a five(ish) seed. If UConn can beat Villanova in the semis, but then lose to a Providence in the Big East Championship, then the Huskies would likely move up to a four seed or so. If Hurley can lead his squad to a title in the Big East tourney, the Huskies will probably land themselves a three-seed in the big dance.
Huskies fans, you should be excited about the upcoming weeks. Your team is in a position to compete for both a Big East crown and a national title. Clear your schedules and get your refrigerators stocked. It’s going to be an awesome month of March.
