Roy Williams: "I'm Hopeful That the Ball Will Go In the Basket a Heck of a Lot More"

After averaging a Roy Williams-era low of 72.2 points per game in 2019-20, the Tar Heels will look to get back to their typical levels of offensive output in 2020-21.

At the 2019-20 ACC Media Day, Roy Williams said he was concerned about his team’s ability to score. “The biggest thing is we’re going to struggle scoring,” noted Williams.

Many fans and media wrote off the remark as coach speak. “That’s just Roy Williams being his dadgum-aww-shucks deprecating self,” was the conclusion.

But as anyone who knows Coach Williams will tell you, while he might have a demeanor that belies straightforwardness, he’s going to tell you like it is. In fact, his statement was prescient because the 2019-20 Tar Heels wound up being the lowest scoring North Carolina team of the Roy Williams era at 72.2 points per game.

UNC Points Per Game in the Roy Williams Era

For comparison’s sake, the following charts show the points per game average for the Tar Heels dating back to the 2003-04 season (Williams’ first as the UNC head coach).

The first chart shows the data chronologically, the second displays the numbers ranked by points per game, highest to lowest.

As you can see, that 80 points per game mark is the demarcation line separating the good from the great Carolina teams. Of the 10 teams to score 80 or more points per game, eight have finished the season atop the ACC.

If we want to further separate the elite teams, the goal is 84 or more points per game. All three of Coach Williams’ national champion teams have averaged 84 or more points per game (2008-09 – 89.8, 2004-05 – 88.0, 2016-17 – 84.4) and one of the two other Final Four teams was above 84 points per game (2007-08 – 88.6). The other Final Four team (2015-16) still finished above 80 points per game, but just shy of the 84 mark, coming in at 82.8.

2020-21 Outlook

Heading into the 2020-21 season, Roy Williams is hoping for a step back in the right direction. At UNC’s Media Day on Wednesday, he said, “I’m hopeful that the ball will go in the basket a heck of a lot more.”

A year removed from the statement about the 2019-20 team’s inability to score, I asked Coach Williams how he feels about this year.

His response: “Well if I tell you something you ought to take it to the bank because I’m going to tell you the freaking truth. We did have trouble scoring last year.”

Unfortunately, it’s hard for the coaching staff to tell just exactly what product they’ve got on their hands. COVID-19 restrictions halted the annual summer pick-up games between current Tar Heel student-athletes and alums from the NBA, other professional leagues, and elsewhere who come back to play. The learning curve is therefore much shorter and much steeper, both for players and coaches. Players have to learn their role, the UNC system, and how to gel together that much more quickly. Coaches have to learn their players and what exactly the make-up of the group is that much more quickly. It’s Thursday, October 22 and the team has only practiced seven times.

Coach Williams continued, “Right now, again, we’re only six practices in [note: which was true at the time of the statement]. We didn’t play pick-up in the fall against the NBA guys and get information from them about who’s playing great and who’s not.”

The UNC head man is understandably expectant of the team’s ability to rebound the basketball given his overwhelming riches in the frontcourt and length on the wings. Williams said, “I think we’ll rebound the basketball this year like North Carolina teams usually rebound the basketball; better than last year.”

As for the scoring, will the Tar Heels return to their usual brand of offensive fireworks? Prior to 2019-20, the team hadn’t averaged under 80 points per game since 2014-15. The goal is to get back to that 80-point threshold. The ideal is 84 or more points per game.

If the Tar Heels are indeed to hit 80 points per game, it would be an increase of 7.8 points per game, the single highest jump from one season to the next in the Roy Williams era.

Was last year an aberration or a harbinger of things to come? Seven practices in, Roy Williams himself isn’t even sure. When will he know?

“I’ll give you a better evaluation of that after a couple more weeks.”

We’ll check back in with Coach at the beginning of November.

In the meantime, stay with AllTarHeels for all your UNC content.

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