What's Next For UNC With Cole Anthony Sidelined?

Expect major changes in the Tar Heels' offense over the next month.

Nell Redmond | USA TODAY Sports

Contrary to some reactions from fans after Tuesday afternoon’s announcement that Cole Anthony would miss 4-6 weeks while recovering from a knee procedure, North Carolina’s basketball season isn’t cancelled.

It's likely Anthony's injury occurred on this play vs. Alabama

The Tar Heels will have to play somewhere between 6-10 games without the freshman phenom and Roy Williams will have his work cut out for him in figuring out how to score without Carolina’s best scorer and creator.

Here’s what changes without Anthony in the lineup:

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The most obvious immediate change is where shots go, as Anthony accounted for a third of available shots when he was on the floor.

Surprisingly, neither Armando Bacot or Garrison Brooks had season-highs for field goal attempts vs. the Terriers. Instead, Anthony’s share of shots was spread to Brandon Robinson, Christian Keeling, K.J. Smith, Anthony Harris and Jeremiah Francis.

Brooks was a monster, making 8 of his 10 attempts, while Bacot’s performance had the feel of an outlier, hitting 2 of 14 from the field. It’s unlikely the talented freshman has ever shot that poorly.

The Tar Heels were methodical in their offense vs. Wofford, passing the ball (excluding inbound passes) 248 times and creating 26 post touches for bigs on 66 possessions. With Anthony in the lineup vs. Virginia, Carolina passed the ball 210 times and generated 24 post touches for bigs.

Overall, ball movement was excellent, with the highest share of assisted field goals on the season, with 17 on 23 buckets.

Moving forward, expect the share of field goal attempts to tilt toward the big men.

Black Coming Back?

Compounding the loss of Anthony is the loss of Leaky Black, who also sat out Sunday with a sprained foot. After injuring the foot in the Bahamas, Black tried to play through the pain and showed up at Carmichael Arena in a boot, with his status officially day-to-day.

Black is clearly Carolina’s most proven option as the primary ballhandler in Anthony’s absence, but his versatility makes him a valuable piece of the lineup in any number of roles.

A natural at point guard, Black is plenty of capable of running the point, and perhaps, even more comfortable there than at the two or three. 

If Anthony’s injury has any silver lining, it’s that Roy Williams will be forced to find out exactly what he’s got in the back court, and possibly, who could continue contributing within the offense even when Anthony and Black return.

Can Anyone Contribute?

Smith got the start and played 26 minutes at the point, while Francis played 16 and Harris handled the ball some in his 10 minutes.

None of the trio set the world on fire, but both Francis and Smith did some positive things in their time running the offense.

For Smith, there was more of an offensive spark than he’s shown in spot appearances, knocking down a 3-pointer on his way to 7 points, 4 assists and 2 turnovers.

Meanwhile, Francis showed a good command of the offense as a floor general, handing out three assists while turning the ball over just once.

In all, Carolina’s assist rate increases with both on the floor, with the Tar Heels assisting on 27 percent of field goals with Francis in and 25.3 percent with Smith. The main issue for both, however, is Carolina’s turnover rate also rises above 30 percent with both out there.

In fact, according to Carolina basketball researcher Adrian Atkinson, the offense has been most productive with Smith leading the offense this season.

Carolina's PPP by PG in non-Anthony minutes:

Smith: 1.03 (46 minutes)
Black: 0.78 (38 minutes)
Francis: 0.65 (19 minutes)

— Adrian Atkinson (@FreeportKid) December 17, 2019

Defense and the Break

Without Anthony creating for himself and others, Carolina’s biggest issue becomes an even bigger problem.

Easy scores have eluded the Tar Heels all season, and that figures to become more of an issue without a point guard capable of starting breaks off the boards six times per game while generating defensive pressure to start others.

Without a defender of Anthony’s caliber on the floor, it’s unlikely Carolina suddenly starts producing turnovers. Instead, it’s more likely they become conservative, helping less in the lane and relying on Bacot to clean up mistakes on the back end.

From there, the Tar Heels will simply have to be more diligent about running on turnovers and defensive boards.

Takeaways

• Expect Bacot and Brooks to take over as the focal point of the offense.
• Ball movement will improve.
• Francis and Smith have shown some promise at point guard. Only time will tell just how effective they can be.
• Black's game could get a kick-start if he comes back healthy as the top option at his natural position.
• The defense has to tighten up to create more easy baskets, which isn't breaking news.
• It could be a bumpy ride, but the extra playing time for reserves could pay off when Anthony returns.