Anatomy of an upset: is there a blueprint for Carolina to follow to beat Clemson?

The data says...

Mack Brown and North Carolina know what they're up against this week, and so do the folks in Las Vegas, with Clemson now favored by as many as 27 points in some places.

"I don’t remember ever being that big of an underdog, but it is what it is," Brown said.

A victory would make the Tar Heels the biggest underdog to pull off an upset this season, second only to Old Dominion, a 28-point underdog, beating Virginia Tech last season in Norfolk.

That game leads the way among the 10 biggest point-spread upsets in college football in the past two seasons, and while there's no team of Clemson's stature on that list, here are the trends that emerged from those games that could guide Carolina's gameplan on Saturday.

Win the turnover battle

This one isn't hard to figure out, but among those 10 games, six underdogs won the turnover battle and UNLV tied San Diego State with two in the Rebels' 2018 victory.

At any rate, no team committed more than two, while six teams had one turnover and two didn't turn the ball over at all.

Overall, quarterbacks took care of the ball in all 10 games with a total of just five interceptions with no team throwing more than one. 

The underdogs' defenses have been opportunistic, too, forcing a total of 21 turnovers in the 10 games, with five of the favored teams committing multiple turnovers. 

This season, Washington State had six turnovers vs. UCLA, Arkansas threw five picks to San Jose State and Tennessee gave it away three times against Georgia State.

"The single biggest statistic that impacts wins and losses is turnovers and we were minus-two last week," Carolina offensive coordinator Phil Longo said. "Particularly, the two in the first half really put us behind the eight ball a little bit." 

Control tempo

The best way to control tempo is an effective running game, and in the 10 upsets, underdogs have generally pounded the run, shortened the game and put their opponents into uncomfortable situations.

The Citadel, which runs an option attack, is the poster boy for ball control after running 71 times for 320 yards en route to holding the ball for 41 minutes, 50 seconds in its win over Georgia Tech.

That left the Yellow Jackets with just over 18 minutes to run a total of 46 plays.

That game is an outlier among the upsets, as time of possession doesn't have much of an impact. Underdogs held it for an average of 31:15, while favorites had the ball for 28:45.

Instead, it's total plays where a trend develops, as the favored teams are pushed out of their comfort zone, with nine of the 10 teams running a higher number of plays than their season-average.

That lines up with those teams falling behind and being forced to throw the ball, risking turnovers, more clock stoppages, and shorter possessions. In eight of the 10 games, the losing team attempted more passes.

That's allowed the winning teams to run an average of 41.6 times for 176.4 yards, while the losing teams have run 36.2 times for 169.9 yards.

Hit a home run

Sometimes you're lucky, sometimes you're good.

Carolina has been good at hitting the big play this season, ranking 16th nationally with 71 plays of 10 or more yards and 12th with 25 plays that went for 20 yards or more.

The Tar Heels will need some luck against a Clemson defense that ranks sixth nationally, having allowed only seven plays that went for 20-plus yards.

But it only takes one mistake or one defensive back slipping, and typically, that's what's happened in big upsets, as seven of 10 teams have a gain of at least 45 yards. The only team without a 30-yard play was Georgia State, who managed a 28-yard gain against Tennessee.

It's not how you start...

This one might be most important for Carolina on Saturday, as there's no correlation with halftime score in the upsets.

Three teams led, five times were behind and two were tied. So long as you're not  getting blown out after half an hour, you've got a chance.

(And as UCLA proved against WSU, you might even have a chance if you're getting blown out.)

Scared money don't make money

Fortune favors the bold, and in seven of the 10 upsets, an underdog has at least one fourth-down conversion, with the teams going 9 of 15 overall.

That goes both ways, with underdogs putting the favored teams in a spot where they'll have to go for it more often and failing, converting just 7 of 24 fourth-down attempts in those games.

That bodes well for the Tar Heels, who have converted on seven of eight fourth-down tries this season. 

Kicking it

You don't have to be perfect in the kicking game, but you do have to be good.

Underdogs made 13 of 18 (72.2 percent) field goal attempts in the upsets, while the favored teams made 9 of 15 (60 percent).

Noah Ruggles could be a weapon for Carolina in that regard, making 7 of 10 field goal attempts this season, with two of his three misses blocked.

Just a little better

Your third-down defense doesn't have to be great to pull off a massive upset, but your offense had better move the chains.

That doesn't bode well for Carolina, which ranks 123rd nationally on third down, converting just 16 of 58 attempts (27.5 percent). After a solid start for the defense on third downs, the Tar Heels have struggled but still rank 48th nationally, having allowed opponents to convert 18 of 53 attempts.

The average conversion rate for the winning teams has been 42.6 percent, while holding opponents to 40 percent. It's possible for the defense, but it would take a major step forward for the Carolina offense to have that level of success.

Simple enough...

Well, there's a reason Clemson has won 19 straight games and two national titles in the past four seasons.

Brown knows his team has to play a near-perfect game and hope that the Tigers have a wildly uncharacteristic day. 

"The difference is that if Clemson plays great, they’re going to win," Brown said. "That’s it. To beat a team like this, they have to make some mistakes — especially have some turnovers or kicking game mistakes — and they’re so well-coached, they don’t do that very often, but that’s what has to happen to win."

But that's exactly why you play the game.

"They have better players than we do, they’re deeper than we are, they’re used to winning — we know it’s an uphill battle — but also this is who you want to be," Brown said.