Carolina Gameday: Keys to Victory vs. Virginia

Turnovers and QB pressure will tell the story.

Nell Redmond | USA TODAY Sports

Virginia (5-3, 3-2) at Carolina (4-4, 3-2)

Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill

7:30 p.m., RSN (PxP: Dave O'Brien; Analyst: Tim Hasselbeck; Sideline: Katie George)

The Two-Sentence Drill

Carolina is playing host to a primetime home game with first place in the Coastal Division on the line. Who really thought Kenan Stadium would be selling out for meaningful football in November?

Carolina will win if...

• If it gives Sam Howell a chance. The freshman quarterback has taken his game to another level over the past month, and if he's got time to work, he has the receivers to make plays. Easier said than done against a defense that ranks fourth nationally in sacks, though.
• The Tar Heels have rushed for more than 200 yards in two of the past three games, with one poor half limiting them at Virginia Tech. If Javonte Williams and Michael Carter run the ball like they have in five of the past six halves, they'll be in great shape
• It continues its trend of playing disciplined football at home, averaging just 24.7 penalty yards per game. Carolina has been a different team on the road, surrendering an average of 65.7 yards on penalties.
• Dazz Newsome continues to dominate, running up 296 yards and four touchdowns on 21 catches in the past three games.
  
• It wins the turnover battle. Virginia is one of the nation's worst in turnover margin, having surrendered 16 this season. 

Carolina won't win if...

• It doesn't manage the emotions that came with last week's victory over Duke. Mack Brown admitted this week that his team was in new territory and it would certainly take some work to be prepared.
• Last week was Carolina's first three-turnover game. Against an opponent as good as Virginia, the Tar Heels can't afford to give them that type of help.
• The Cavaliers give up a ton of sacks, but it's not as easy as sending six guys on all-out blitzes. If Carolina's pass rush isn't responsible in its pressure, it could open up huge seams that Bryce Perkins has the speed to exploit for big yardage.
• Virginia ranks 123rd nationally in rushing, averaging 105 yards per game. The Tar Heel run defense has been up and down this season, and it can't afford to have an off day against an opponent it should shut down.

What would a win mean for Carolina?

The Tar Heels will head into their second open week of the season tied for first place in the Coastal Division, while basically knocking Virginia out of the running. (Of course, this is the Coastal, so is anyone really ever out of it?)

Not only will be Carolina be riding the high of two straight wins into the open week, it will get some much-needed time to heal up for the stretch run, needing just one victory for bowl eligibility. 

What would a loss mean for Carolina?

It's time to kiss the Coastal Division title goodbye, and suddenly, the Tar Heels will need to win two of the next three games to make a bowl game.

It would certainly be a disappointment for a fanbase that has sold out every game this season in what will be the most meaningful game at Kenan Stadium since 2015.

In the Footprint

N.C. State (4-3, 1-2) at No. 23 Wake Forest (6-1, 2-1), 12 p.m. (ESPN)
Boston College (4-4, 2-3) at Syracuse (3-5, 0-4), 12 p.m. (ACC Network)
Virginia Tech (5-2) at No. 16 Notre Dame (5-2), 2:30 p.m. (NBC)
Miami (4-4, 2-3) at Florida State (4-4, 3-3), 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
Wofford (5-2) at No. 4 Clemson (8-0), 4 p.m. (ACC Network)
Pitt (5-3, 2-2) at Georgia Tech (2-5, 1-3), 4 p.m. (ACC Network Extra)

Pregame Reading

Mack Brown's First Construction Project at Carolina Now Benefiting his Current Rebuild

Five Storylines for UNC vs. Virginia: Dazz's Breakout, QB Pressure and Healing Heels

Passing the Test: DeAndre Hollins Turns Defensive Knowledge into Performance

UNC Knew a Pass Was Coming. Jay Bateman Knew Exactly Where, Thanks to a 2016 Loss

WATCH: Carolina Players Talk Virginia

Jace Ruder Likely Out; Other Injured Tar Heels 'Have a Chance to Play' vs. Virginia

Mack Brown Wednesday Update: Feeling the Buzz, Preparing for Virginia and Kicker Confidence