USC Basketball: Draft Expert Disappointed By Isaiah Collier's Deficiencies

Why is his stock dropping?

USC Trojans guard Isaiah Collier joined the program as the nation's top recruit this season. As such, he carried lofty expectations. 

Many scouts had Collier ranked as high as first on their big board for the 2024 NBA draft, suggesting that he would immediately enter All-American discussion and be the best player on a then-16th ranked USC squad. 

Unfortunately, things haven't been that way, as Collier has had some good moments, but aggregately, hasn't been great. Here's what John Hollinger of The Athletic wrote in a recent piece:

"A plague of turnovers continues to be [Collier's] nemesis: He had four miscues Sunday and averages an eye-popping 8.3 per 100 possessions. Going back through recent drafts, Collier’s figure would be the highest turnover rate of any legitimate prospect at any position. The only close comparison who turned into a decent NBA player would be Cade Cunningham, who turned it over 7.0 times per 100 in his lone season at Oklahoma State..."

Hollinger's observation about his turnovers is a serious issue, as Collier is a ball-dominant guard who penetrates the basket at a high level. If his turnover rate is high in college, the amount of collapsing defenses, swipes at the ball, and traps he'll face at the next level will increase that turnover figure tremendously. 

This is made worse by his shooting woes, as the turnover comparison Hollinger drew, Cade Cunningham, was a 40% three-point shooter in college and stands at 6-foot-7. 

As such, he can limit those turnovers by taking more jumpshots and finding ways to create that don't put him in disadvantaged positions. Collier, on the contrary, would end up creating shots similar to how a player like Russell Westbrook does in the NBA, and he's been a turnover machine his entire career. I wrote a piece on this just after USC's opening game, and unfortunately, all of the downsides have begun to show. 

Here's Hollinger's bit on Collier's shooting:

"Collier’s shooting also looms as a question mark. Watching him before the game, he corkscrews to his left as he gets into his jumper, which can make it difficult for him to square up on the move. Additionally, his stroke isn’t consistent, with the arc varying widely on each attempt. Collier is shooting 68.2 percent from the line and 33.3 percent from 3 through 10 games."

68.2% from the free throw line is woeful, as for someone who would attack the basket often and presumably at a high level, he'll be fouled frequently and likely put up double-digit attempts per game. 

Shooting those at a sub-70% clip as a guard is unacceptable, and worse, reflects his shooting ability/potential as a guard overall, as free throw percentage is often utilized as a vehicle to evaluate shooting mechanics and upside. 

A 33.3% three-point percentage is also bad, as it indicates that his ability to spread defenses out is essentially non-existent, and pairing that with his reliance on the pick-and-roll, and defenders can often just go under screens, as they wouldn't worry about him as a jump shooter. Damaging the efficacy of the pick-and-roll, Collier making an impact on the game outside of in transition could be next to impossible. 

Time will tell, and USC's spacing isn't great currently either, but those shooting numbers won't improve even in a more advanced offense. He's a poor shooter at every level, and in order to excel (or even be average) as a point guard in the NBA today, you need a reliable jump shot. Most capable starters in the league external to elite athletes like Ja Morant or De'Aaron Fox shoot 38%+ from three-point range, and if Collier can't reach that clip, he'll face countless challenges to produce in the NBA.