5 Burning Questions: Breaking down USC-Washington

A free-flowing weekly conversation on USC football with Pac-12 Networks analyst Yogi Roth that includes an in-depth preview and predictions on Saturday's game at Washington.

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Adam Maya: Hey Yogi, thanks so much for doing this.

Yogi Roth: Well, first off, congratulations on your recent success. I'm really happy for you. Maven and SI, in my opinion, are very fortunate to have you. I think you cover the Trojans as well as anybody in the country and you have an eye for the game.

Maya (1): Thank you! Let’s start with USC QB Matt Fink. If you’re Graham Harrell, what’s your game plan for him? The way he played against Utah might not be sustainable, chucking up so many 50-50 balls. If you're drawing it up for him this week, what are you asking him to do versus Washington?

Roth: I look at Utah and what they did to 'SC, and Utah does this to everybody, they play their defense. They're going to give a lot of times, and sometimes on third downs, stagnant looks, or consistent looks. I think for Matt Fink, that helped. He didn’t have to process an ever-changing look, which would be the defense moving. UW is constantly moving and changing their safeties. Traditionally they’ll play a post defense, which means they have somebody take away the post, take away the middle of the field, that deep safety at times could be 20, 25, sometimes even 30 yards down the field. He’s so deep, they're not going to let you take shots down the middle of the field to beat them. Sometimes they’ll play two safeties, but they’ll sky late, they’ll change the look late, and they also change the coverage late so one snap will look a certain way from a framework perspective and it'll be man to man. The next snap it'll look the same, framework-wise, and they’ll pass everything off. 

The biggest thing for Matt Fink and the biggest thing for the Air Raid offense as a philosophy is you got to trust your eyes. And there’s a phrase in the Air Raid where it says your reads are sacred. If I was talking to Matt Fink, trust your reads, as they’re sacred, and you have to trust your eyes. Against Washington, you can guess, you can anticipate and you can expect certain looks to be what they are pre-snap and they won't be that post-snap. I think for him it’s to go though this pure-progression offense with pure and clean eyes. In a pure-progression offense you go from read 1 to read 2 to read 3 based on if the receiver's open, not necessarily where the defense goes and what the defense does. Oh my gosh, they’re rotating strong-side rotation and here comes Myles Bryant so I’m going to throw back side. You can’t do that as a quarterback because you’ll get to the read too quick. You saw that’s what happened in the BYU game on the interception in the end. Kedon Slovis went too fast through his reads. They will get you to the right receiver with the proper timing. That will be the biggest thing for Matt Fink because this is the first time he’ll see anything like this. That would be priority No. 1, let alone, obviously, don’t turn the ball over.

Maya: Do you think that'll translate into a lot of short game?

Roth: No, I think they have to take shots. I called two of U-Dub's first four games, you’ll be able to take shots against them. They're going to be aggressive. You just got to make the plays. The challenge is they got elite playmakers when it comes to the ball being in the air, but so does ‘SC. I don’t think this is going to be as clean as it was a week ago, in terms of seeing the same picture and I’m just going to throw a go route and Michael Pittman's just going to run by a corner. I don't see it being like that because you're going to see bail, you’re going to see press bail, you’re going to see a lot of different techniques. So, again for Matt, the challenge will be not necessarily only going where his eyes tell him to go, but the type of ball. Press bail and a go route, you’re going to want to make a back shoulder throw. Those are the types of things that he just hasn't had any game experience to do any of those. Now, he’s capable. We have to give him credit for the throws he made. He looked like a guy who’s played a lot, in terms of ball placement. There weren’t a lot of badly thrown balls. I think they’ll be a combination (of deep and short passes). I would stay away from the crossing routes. The way Elijah Molden and Myles Bryant play, it’s just cloudy in there. It’s just got to be clean. He’s got to see it because corners will peel off late.

Maya (2): Do you think USC will run a fair amount and do you think they’ll be able to?

Roth: Yeah, I don’t think this is going to be like the second half of Fresno State where it’s super conservative and they run the ball to eat the clock. You know Graham Harrell. I would be shocked if they went conservative mode. This is an aggressive mindset, this is an aggressive team, and they got big-time playmakers. The challenge has been the quarterback. It’s just inexperience where you think they would cut things back. But based on the 12 general plays they have in this offense, it’s not as though they have to peel back. It’s not as though they have to change the game plan. Will they run the ball? Yes. Graham’s proven that’s a big part of what he’s going to do. We’re not going to see poor clock managing, we’re not going to see them not try to take possessions away from Jacob Eason. Yeah, they’ll run it to protect their defense. But I don’t think you're going see them slow the game up because I do think they got to find a rhythm.

Maya: I ask because Fink said he anticipated Washington being in Cover 3 and even dropping eight and mimicking BYU. If they're giving you that, I wondered if USC will take what they give them and run more than they planned to.

Roth: Well, I think that’s a great point and I would agree with that. You go back and you watch any of the Washington State-U-Dub games, which are the best comparison, I think for this game. That’s what they do. They’ll drop eight but they’ll do it in a bunch of different ways. The picture will change. And that’s really where Wazzu struggled over the last couple years. It’s not drop eight. Everybody's going to drop eight against the Air Raid. It’s just making sure you’re on time. Where Washington is the best in this conference defensively is they are taught route concepts. They're not taught drops. They’re taught, one guy goes in, one guy comes out, bait him into where the throw is. We’re going to play three deep. Matt Fink, dump it down to one of the running backs all game long and we’ll live with that. That’s just how they play. They make you bleed them out. That’s what Darnold did a couple years ago, and that’s what the teams that have beaten U-Dub have done — Dwayne Haskins last year or Trace McSorely two years ago. Even Bama, that’s how they beat them. It’s not like anybody has just rolled. You got to be efficient in that regard.

Maya (3): How do you expect USC, particularly in the front six/seven, to try to compensate for not having safety Talanoa Hufanga and cornerback Olaijah Griffin in the secondary?

Roth: If I was defensive coordinator against Jacob Eason, I would change looks all day long. When he stands there and and has a clean picture, he’s as good as Justin Herbert and he’s as good as anybody in the country. He’s really special in terms of ball placement. And Hunter Bryant is a big matchup issue. Will USC be able to line up and play Aaron Fuller and Andre Baccellia? You hope so. I don’t think they’re going to say, we can’t cover those guys, we can’t run with them. It’s not like they’re all Laviska Shenault. Or, they’re not their receivers, that they practice against every day. But Hunter Bryant is a matchup issue and the stuff they do in between the hashes with the Wildcat – I'm not sure of Salvon Ahmed’s status – but the rest of the running backs have been talented. This offensive line is going to be the best O-line USC has seen all season long until they play Oregon. But they’re elite. Nick Harris (versus) Jay Tufele and Marlon Tuipulotu, I can’t wait to watch that. ‘SC’s got to win some of those. Drake Jackson, can he beat Trey Adams, one of the best tackles in the country? So if I’m (USC), I’m overloading a side and I’m bringing pressure. 

You have to make it difficult for Jacob Eason to complete balls down the field. The challenge is he can see pressure pretty good and when he sees it, the way you're taught at quarterback is throw to pressure. Throw it to the guy who’s replacing it and usually the guy replacing the pressure is the guy not playing — Talanoa Hufanga, who’s really special, based not only on 14 tackles (last week), but we saw it a year ago when he came in (spring). Other guys, whether it’s EA (Palaie Gaoteote) or whether it’s Kana’i Mauga, guys have to play extremely well, extremely consistent, extremely sound on defense. ‘SC can’t give up explosive plays. They’re 101st in the nation in allowing 10-plus-yard plays. You’re not going to survive in this game if that's the case, if you're going to allow Hunter Bryant and those guys to make plays down the field. They have an elite passer in Jacob Eason. So ‘SC’s going to be challenged with those two guys out, more than they have been in any game this year.

Maya (4): Where will this game be decided? What is the matchup or the X factor that will determine it?

Roth: I think it’s Matt Fink. U-Dub, they’re the best defense in the Pac-12 the last four years. Granted, they lost nine starters on the defensive side, but they’ve played four games now. I saw them go through the learning curve. I think they’re going to be at their best in this game at home. You go back, I think of Aaron Corp’s first start on the road at U-Dub, that place is a difficult place to play. I think for them they got to play catch all over the field. For Matt Fink, he’s got to play quarterback. He’s got to really play his most efficient game, and defensively they can’t give up explosives. If they do those things, they’ll win the game. ‘SC is talented enough to go win this ballgame. But if they’re not sound early, I’ve seen it where U-Dub can make it ugly. They (the Huskies) are going to take shots down the field. This is a much more aggressive offense than we’ve seen in years past. You hate to say the easy layup is always the quarterback and that’s the key factor but it is in this game, the decision-making of Matt Fink and of course the playmaking of his wideouts.

Maya (5): What’s your prediction?

Roth: I think U-Dub wins this game at home. The thing I’ve been most impressed with ‘SC, and it’s why I think people should pump the breaks a bit on all the heat on Clay Helton, this team has really competed. They haven't flinched in the face of adversity. I think last year, it’s fair to say they struggled when it got hard. So they’ll have another opportunity to do that. This is a huge chance for them. I wouldn’t be shocked if they pulled it out, but Matt Fink’s going to have to play his best ball. Based on what we’ve seen on tape and the injuries, I have to go with U-Dub in this ballgame. I’d probably go 31-28. It might not be as close as that in terms of what it feels like, but that’s what I’ll go with it. I’m looking forward to it. This is a huge chance for ‘SC’s season, obviously, if they go on the road and make a statement for Clay.

Maya: By the way, you just horrified everybody by mentioning Aaron Corp.

Roth: What do you think happens?

Maya: I could see the score ending up like you’re saying. Maybe a 10-point game, 31-21, something like that, and USC scores with two minutes left. You mentioned the post-snap changes, which is what gave Kedon a hard time, I think it will give Fink just as hard of a time except he’ll be maybe a bit more reckless. He’s not as comfortable making the intermediate throws. This is a game where you’d love to have Kedon or JT (Daniels). But Fink being more willing to air it out might be to his detriment. He’ll hit a couple, but I think he’ll get picked off too.

Roth: ‘SC’s receivers are going to have to ball out.

Maya: I’d like to see them run the ball a lot. I know that’s not what they’re going to do. That’s not in their DNA. But I actually think Washington's front seven can be beat that way. If USC had Kedon and they had Hufanga and Griffin, if they had their team, then this game could be awesome. But I think this game could get ugly.

Roth: I bet USC jumps out early and then we’ll see what happens.

Maya: They’ll have to. OK, Yogi, really appreciate this.

Roth is a Pac-12 Networks college football analyst, award-winning filmmaker, scholar, New York Times best-selling author, coach, motivational speaker and world-traveler. Be sure to check out all his latest work.