USC Football: Is Caleb Williams' Heisman Bid in Jeopardy?

You can probably guess the answer.

After a 48-20 loss at the hands of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend Saturday night, your USC Trojans have a number of issues to sort out, ranging from the offensive line, to the run defense, to injuries in the secondary, to receiver play, and more. 

But, arguably the most tangible takeaway from USC's breakdown on national television was what may happen to Caleb Williams' Heisman case. 

And, by that, I'm referring to his probability of winning the award, which, unfortunately has most certainly dropped from nation-leading odds, to potentially out of the top 5. 

USC Head Coach Lincoln Riley (left) and Notre Dame Head Coach Marcus Freeman (right) ahead of the Trojans' 48-20 defeat at the hands of Notre Dame

Williams finished the contest with an abhorrent 3 interceptions, his first college game with that many. The former Heisman frontrunner finished with a 62% completion percentage (9% less than his season average) and under 200 yards passing, with just one touchdown. 

While Williams' overall season statistics are still solid (29 total TDs, 4 turnovers), this performance was absolutely dreadful, and will certainly leave an asterisk on his junior campaign. 

What was arguably more significant than the loss at large and Caleb's poor performance was what other Heisman candidates did this weekend. 

Matt Johnson of Sportsnaut.com writes in his most recent Heisman watch list (prior to this week's games), that Washington QB Michael Penix Jr., Oregon QB Bo Nix, Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel, and Florida State QB Jordan Travis trailed Williams and were ranked 2-5 in his ladder, in order. 

In a Pacific Northwest, Penix defeated Nix 36-33, but both quarterbacks (especially Penix) were highly impressive. Penix led a game-winning drive with under 2 minutes to play, leading Nix to have to do the same to either tie the game or take the lead. Nix led his team into field-goal territory, where kicker Camden Lewis missed a 36-yard attempt to send the game into overtime as time expired. 

Michael Penix Jr. (9) attempting a pass against the University of Oregon, 10/14/23

To that end, while Nix lost, he threw for 337 yards and 2 touchdowns, and should've been able to play for the game in overtime. Penix was terrific too, finishing with 302 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Oregon QB Bo Nix (10) attempting a pass against the University of Washington, 10/14/23

As such, the 2nd and 3rd ranked players behind Caleb are nearly guaranteed to overtake him (at least Penix, for sure). Dillon Gabriel (ranked 4th) and Jordan Travis (ranked 5th) also both led their teams to blowout wins. 

Gabriel, last week, led OU to a rivalry over then-3rd-ranked Texas, highlighting his case. Travis has a slightly less impressive resume on the season, and I see him probably staying behind Caleb on the rankings overall. But that said, Gabriel, Penix, and Nix (certainly Gabriel and Nix) will be overtaking Williams on the Heisman ladder.

The challenge for Williams when it comes to rebounding and potentially staying in contention for the award is the fact that he'd need to play flawlessly for the rest of the season. 

Williams (13) attempting to make a tackle off of his own interception. 

For example, 2023 Heisman winner Bryce Young had just 5 interceptions all season, and with Caleb currently sitting at 4 with a tough slate of games ahead, he'll need to take perfect care of the ball to avoid leading all candidates in turnovers by a substantive margin. 

Unfortunately, things don't get any easier for USC. In fact, they get harder. 

Next week, USC hosts the currently 16th-ranked Utah, who, at the time of this publication, just came off of a 34-14 win against Cal, and will likely go up in ranking. Their ranking aside, USC has lost 3 straight contests to Utah, including a 48-24 blowout in the Pac-12 Championship game in Las Vegas this past December. 

University of Utah team member in their 48-24 defeat of the USC Trojans on December 2nd, 2022

To make matters worse, that Pacific Northwest showdown mentioned earlier will become USC's schedule the ensuing 2 weeks after a battle with Cal on October 28th.

On November 4th, they host Michael Penix Jr.'s Huskies, and on November 11th, they travel to an extremely hostile road environment in Oregon to take on Bo Nix's Ducks. 

To cap it all off, they host the 18th-ranked Bruins on November 18th, who have one of the nation's top defenses. 

This schedule is rough. In fact, it's arguably the nation's toughest from this point forward. USC has yet to enter the realm of competitive conference play, but already sit at 6-1. 

The margin for error when it comes to winning a second straight Heisman Trophy or making the College Football Playoff is extremely, extremely small. It's highly possible that this brutal loss may have just ended USC's hopes of both. 

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