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Behind the Numbers of Ronald Jones’ 4th and Goal Play in Super Bowl LV

Ronald Jones finished with 12 carries for 61 yards in Super Bowl LV.

Austin Grad

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense had their way at Raymond James Stadium Sunday evening, during the 31-9 massacre of the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV. 

While the high-powered Chiefs offense couldn't find the end zone, Tampa Bay did an excellent job of crossing the goal line all night long. 

With 10:54 remaining in the second quarter, running back Ronald Jones II stood behind quarterback Tom Brady on 4th and goal from the 1-yard-line up 7-3 on the leagues best team with all of the momentum in the Bucs favor. 

Brady would take the snap, and the former USC tailback tried to charge past the goal line defenders, but was unable to reach the ball across the white chalk, getting stopped inches short of a TD in the Super Bowl. 

Having Brady under center needing one yard can also entail a QB sneak which is something the defense could have had on their minds. But head coach Bruce Arians decided to give Rojo the chance to power in.

Ronald Jones II made several great plays on Sunday night, but let's dive into the numbers behind this one play in particular. 

This was the fourth time in the history of the Super Bowl, that a team rushed the ball from 4th and goal from the one. After the stop of Jones, only one of the four rushers made it across the pylon, that being Emmitt Smith who scored in Super Bowl 28. 

According to a study conducted by Yale University that looked at the 3,181 4th-and-1 plays from 1998-2015, teams that call running plays have a 67.9% chance of converting for a first down or touchdown. 

But the types of rushing plays that are called can have a drastic difference in the success rate. If the play type was a quarterback sneak, the chance of converting it was at an 82.8% clip. On the contrary, running plays that didn't involve the signal-caller were only converted 63.4% of the time.

It makes sense as to why the success rate is lower. After all, the halfback normally lines up several yards behind the line of scrimmage, while the QB is right behind center. 

But the momentum and vision of the running back is why play-callers use the speedy and powerful position more often. In this instance, teams were 9-for-9 when going for it on 4th-and-1 against Kansas City this season. 

While the Chiefs defense prevailed that time, it was one of the few bright spots for the AFC Champions as the defense was penalized early and often. Star QB Patrick Mahomes struggled all night with the strong Bucs pass rush breathing down his neck in the 22-point blowout.

Jones would finish the night with 12 carries for 61 yards while getting his first ring as an NFL player. And at the end of the night, that 4th down stand in the 2nd quarter ended up having no effect to the final score as Tampa Bay made history in Florida.

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Austin Grad
AUSTIN GRAD

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