USC Trojans Vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction: Upset Alert?

The USC Trojans are hosting No. 4 Penn State on Saturday in a game that could have College Football Playoff implications down the line. A loss for USC and they are knocked out of the CFP picture entirely, and a home win vs the No. 4 team in the country could be just what the Trojans needed.

Oct 5, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Miller Moss (7) warms up before the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans are hosting No. 4 Penn State in a must-win game for the Men of Troy. If the Trojans want to stay in the College Football Playoff hunt, they need to knock off a red-hot Penn State team.

The last time these two teams met up, in the 2017 Rose Bowl where USC came back to defeat the Nittany Lion 52-49.

Jan 2, 2017; Pasadena, CA, USA; USC Trojans wide receiver Deontay Burnett (80) catches a pass for a touchdown against Penn State Nittany Lions safety Marcus Allen (2) during the fourth quarter of the 2017 Rose Bowl game at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

This season, USC has started off with a 3-2 record, with their two losses coming via Big Ten play. The Trojans dropped both games on the road as they played at Michigan and Minnesota. Both games were filled with opportunities for USC to win, but time and time again, the Trojans would squander said chances.

"You have to keep perspective. . . . If you change two plays this year, then we're 5-0, and we feel like we're world beaters and we're worried about being over confident," said USC head coach Lincoln Riley on Monday, Oct. 7.

Sep 21, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley on the sideline in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Penn State heads to Southern California for the first time for a Big Ten conference game. They are coming in with a 6-0 record with back-to-back wins over UCLA and Illinois. The Nittany Lions have been led by quarterback Drew Allar. The junior quarterback has thrown for over 1100 yards and nine touchdowns this season.

Earlier in the week, USC defensive back Jaylin Smith reiterated that Allar is one of the more talented quarterbacks in the conference.

"(He's a) physical specimen, he's super big. Has the arm talent, super strong arm talent. He's not really phased that much, (he) makes a lot of good throws, great throws actually," Smith admitted. "He's a good leader."

Sep 28, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Miller Moss (7) throws against the Wisconsin Badgers in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

According to ESPN BET, Penn State is the -4 favorite heading into Saturday's matchup. USC is 9-9 as a home underdog. This is the first time all season long that the Trojans will not be favored at home. ESPN's Football Power Index has predicted that USC is a 51.7 percent favorite to win the game despite being the betting underdog.

The Prediction

USC may have convinced the FPI that they can out the win over Penn State. They will have to play completely different ballgame then they did last week vs. Minnesota. The Trojans offense has to put up more points in the first half than they have been, something that may be challenging to do considering how good the Penn State defense is.

If USC is able to contain the Penn State offense early in the game similarly to how UCLA did, the Trojans will have a chance.

The Pick

USC 31, Penn State 27

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