USC Football: Where Caleb Williams Ranks In Post-Draft OROY Odds

The former Trojans great is now a Chicago Bear.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 NFL Draft is over, and USC quarterback Caleb Williams is already the favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Since Williams was the No. 1 overall pick by the Chicago Bears, him leading the odds is not surprising. The fact that he's leading the odds by a significant margin despite being in a draft class that was heavy with quarterbacks and offensive players taken in the first round is a testament to how good he is expected to be.

Currently, Williams' odds to win OROY are +210, via FanDuel Sportsbook. Arizona Cardinals wide receiver and the No. 4 overall pick, Marvin Harrison Jr., is in second with +600 odds. Washington Commanders QB (2nd overall pick) Jayden Daniels and Minnesota Vikings QB (10th overall pick) J.J. McCarthy are tied for the third highest odds at +1000. New York Giants WR (6th overall pick) Malik Nabers comes in with the fifth-best odds at +1400.

What also bodes well for Williams' odds to win OROY, beyond just playing quarterback, is the situation he's walking into with Chicago. The Bears already began showing improvement toward the end of last season, and now have bolstered their offense with the additions of running back D'Andre Swift and wide receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. With this supporting cast, Williams has the tools to throw for over 4,000 yards, 20+ touchdowns, as well as win games. Achieving any or multiple of these feats is critical to improve his shot at winning OROY.

Even if he can do this, he'll have stiff competition this year. If fellow first round quarterbacks Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy and/or Bo Nix have better success as a rookie or lead their team to the playoffs, they'll likely win the award. There should also be plenty of competition from skill position players like Harrison Jr. and Nabers. If the quarterbacks falter and one of these receivers goes for well over 1,000 yards, they could easily snatch the award.

Finally, there will also be dark horse contenders. The best example was Puka Nacua last year. As a fifth round pick in 2023, Nacua was not considered a contender in the OROY odds before the season, but he quickly made himself a top candidate by breaking multiple rookie receiving records. Had it not been for the phenomenal rookie performance of Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud, Nacua would have been a shoe-in to win the award.

Ultimately, the OROY award will be Williams' to lose, but certainly anything is possible heading into the 2024 NFL season.

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