After an abysmal 2021-22 season, what should be the expectations for the Runnin' Utes moving forward?

After one year at the helm, what should fans expect from Craig Smith in year two and beyond?

The University of Utah Runnin’ Utes are one of the most storied programs in NCAA Men’s Basketball history. The school has made the NCAA Tournament 29 times, which is 20th nationally and tied for third in the Western US with Gonzaga, just behind UCLA and Arizona. The Runnin’ Utes boast a very strong basketball history and claim an educated fanbase with high expectations.

However, the squad has suffered through an uneven period lately and fan support has waned as a result. With Craig Smith’s first season as head coach almost over, what should the expectations be going forward?

Making the NCAA Tournament field is generally considered to be the dividing line between a successful season and an unsuccessful one. Before we look forward, let’s take a look back through the program’s history with the NCAA Tournament.

1940’s: 2 appearances, 1950’s: 3 appearances, 1960’s: 3 appearances

The NCAA Tournament began in 1939 and took a backseat to the NIT in those early years. The Runnin’ Utes won the 1947 NIT title and that was considered to be the national championship. Due to the competing tournaments and the small field, this era of Utah Basketball isn’t very conducive to figuring out what current expectations should be. The team was coached by the legendary Vadal Peterson, who was succeeded by another legend in Jack Gardner.

The beginning of the Jack Gardner-era was a great one for the Runnin’ Utes. The team made the 16 team field NCAA Tournament three times, with one Elite Eight berth. Similar to the previous decade, the field was still too small for the purpose of this exercise.

We’re getting closer to the modern-era of college basketball and the 1960’s provided Utah with its first two Final Four berths since the 1944 title run. The field would still be 16 teams until 1975, but the Utes helped solidify their legacy with strong performances this decade.

1970’s: 3 appearances

Now we enter the modern-era that is much more instructive to our prognostication of the future. Coach Gardner retired in 1971 after a tepid final few years. The Utes hired Bill Foster, who ended the program’s streak of all-time coaching greats. Foster lead the team to an NIT runner-up and then promptly left the program to take the head job at Duke. This takes us to Jerry Pimm and the Tournament field expanding to 32 teams in 1975. Pimm lead the Utes to three NCAA appearances in the 1970’s and helped restore the program to its former reputation.

1980’s: 3 appearances

Under Coach Pimm, the team made the tournament field two of the first three seasons in this new decade but he left the Utes as a result of a strained relationship with the AD. To this point in the team’s history, a coach had yet to be fired for poor results. The Tournament field increased to 64 teams in 1985 and new Utah HC Lynn Archibald made the field in 1986. A few lackluster seasons followed and Archibald was let go in favor of Big Rick Majerus. The takeaway here is that a single NCAA appearance in six seasons was deemed unacceptable.

1990’s: 7 appearances

Rick Majerus lead the Runnin’ Utes into the 1990’s and the most prolonged success in program history. This is also the era that the majority of fans either grew up in and/or remember extremely well. Keith Van Horn, Andre Miller, Michael Doleac, and others lead the parade from Utah to the NBA. Big Rick guided Utah to SEVEN Tournament appearances in the 1990’s, including a run to the 1998 Championship Game.

2000’s: 6 appearances

The good times continued to roll into the new decade, with the team making the Tournament four of the first five years before Coach Majerus retired for health reasons in 2004. Ray Giacoletti was then hired and the program’s struggles began. Coach Giac made the Sweet Sixteen in his first season, with Majerus’ inherited players. He followed that season up with two losing seasons in a row and was promptly let go. Career Assistant Jim Boylen was then hired by the program he would make one NCAA Tourney through winning the MWC Tournament but was then fired after consecutive losing seasons.

2010’s: 2 appearances

Larry Krystowiak was hired in 2011 to lead the Runnin’ Utes into the Pac-12 Conference and had to do so with an extremely depleted roster. Larry K began to build his program that would beak with back-to-back NCAA appearances in 2015 and 2016 before falling back into mediocrity. Three NBA 1st Round picks in Delon Wright, Jakob Poeltl, and Kyle Kuzma helped show that Utah at its best could still be a college basketball powerhouse. Though Larry K was unable to sustain that peak, he was still able to reset the high bar of expectations within the program. In what was becoming tradition, Coach K was let go after consecutive losing seasons in conference play.

2020’s: 0 appearances, so far

The hiring of Craig Smith in 2021 has opened yet another era of Runnin’ Utes basketball. Expectations were low heading into this season and things have gone more or less as predicted. So where do we go from here and what are valid expectations? We see from our recent history that consecutive losing seasons (overall or in conference play) is grounds for dismissal except for in Larry K’s case where he was given a third season to get right. My opinion is that Craig Smith will receive similar latitude by the administration and the boosters. If positive progress is shown next season, then the pressure will be on for a winning record in year three.

But what about upside expectations? Larry K went from 6-25 in his first season to 26-9 and a Sweet Sixteen in his fourth. This should be the “worst case” goal for Craig Smith as he continues at Utah. The true key to expectations is sustainability. How often should Utah be making the NCAA Tournament is a question often discussed on fan forums and Twitter. Tournament field size has grown roughly inline with the growth of D1 teams and conferences investing in the sport. In the program’s greatest decade with its greatest coach, there were seven NCAA appearances. This sets our upward bound. Two appearances in the 2010’s sets our downward bound and establishes another bar for firing a coach. Finding common ground between these two points says that we should set fan expectations at 4-5 NCAA Tournament berths per decade.

Even during a “down” period, Utah Basketball is still the premiere program in the state of Utah and one of the stalwart names in the West. The program has the facilities, the money, the potential fan support, and the history to return to its former glory. The ceiling is still extremely high and all eyes are on Craig Smith to achieve it.