ESPN FPI Predicts 10-2 record for Utah football

ESPN's FPI predicts just a two loss regular season for the Utah Utes.

With the 2022 football season inching closer and fall camp now less than a week away, FanNation AllUtes breaks down the ESPN FPI predictions for Utah's 2022 schedule. 

Overall, the reigning Pac-12 Champions are expected to go 10-2 according to FPI. 

The individual win probabilities for each game are listed below.

September 3 @ Florida Gators

Utah's FPI Win Probability: 47.9%

Despite a superior returning roster and much more successful 2021 campaign compared to their opponent, ESPN is not showing the Utes any love in week one as they are favored to lose against Florida by a spread of 2.5.

Sure, this is an SEC opponent and the spread is probably fairly accurate, but to favor a Florida team that went 6-7 last season over a Utah team that went toe-to-toe with Ohio State in the Rose Bowl and finished 10-4? This feels like it was based more on conference favoritism and superiority rather than the actual teams.

Keep the probability but switch the teams and that would feel much more accurate.

September 10 vs SUU Thunderbirds

Utah's FPI Win Probability: 99.4%

Home opener against a struggling SUU program? Seems about right. Utah should absolutely thump the Thunderbirds at Rice Eccles and that 0.6% should be seen as gracious.

September 17 vs SDSU Aztecs

Utah's FPI Win Probability: 90.2%

Lightning will not strike twice as the Utes now host the San Diego State Aztecs at Rice Eccles and will be looking for their revenge. 

Taking a look back at what happened last season, the simple explanation for that OT loss was the error of not only starting Charlie Brewer, but keeping him for the majority of the game. With Cameron Rising now at the helm from the start, Utah won't need some miracle come back and should take care of business fairly easily.

September 24 @ Arizona State Sun Devils

Utah's FPI Win Probability: 67.7%

After what ASU has endured over the last few months and the notable transfers they've seen, that program is on a rapid decline and could be doomed for the next few years. 

Even though the Utes will travel to Tempe for this game, this should be one of their easier Pac-12 matchups and a good opportunity to ease into the conference schedule.

October 1 vs Oregon State Beavers

Utah's FPI Win Probability: 84.9%

Another wild fluke from the 2021 season, the Utes 42-34 loss to the Beavers last year was a surprise for everyone involved. Not only was Utah rolling but the Beavers didn't appear to be much of a threat in any really any aspect. However, as Utah came to learn the Beavers should not be treated lightly and that's something they should remember for this upcoming season.

While the game is at Rice Eccles this year, an 84.9% win probability does seem a bit high as Oregon State returns nine defensive starters who got the job done last season. However, with Utah's star-studded offense they should avenge last years loss but don't expect a blow out.

October 8 @ UCLA Bruins

Utah's FPI Win Probability: 58.4%

After Utah's season opener against Florida, UCLA will be the first real test for the Utes as they're highly favored in every single matchup until they travel back to the Rose Bowl to face off with the Bruins.

Last season, UCLA was looking like a dark-horse contender until Dorian Thompson-Robinson went out with injury and missed the matchup with Utah which resulted in a loss and sealed their fate.

Assuming Dorian Thompson-Robinson remains healthy this year, it'll be interesting to see how Utah's defense handles him after he proved to be a diverse primary source of offense for UCLA last season.

Regardless of the winner, this game will show just how good both teams actually are nearing the midway point of the season.

October 15 vs USC Trojans

Utah's FPI Win Probability: 73.1%

This may be the most surprising odds of the season and not because Utah is favored to win, but because of how confident ESPN is in the Utes chances. 

Should Utah be favored? Absolutely. Rice Eccles is not an easy place to win and as of late, its been downright near impossible. Additionally, with how many new faces the Trojans have on their roster, it's unlikely they'll be firing on all cylinders.

However, with all that being said, USC has built arguably their best roster in recent years and are hungry to win a Pac-12 Championship one more time before they exit for the BIG10. Will that be this year? Probably not, but they aren't going to be a guaranteed win by any means either.

October 27 @ Washington State Cougars

Utah's FPI Win Probability: 81.1%

Assuming the Utes take care of business and prove ESPN's odds correct, the bye week will come at the perfect time and give them a chance to breathe after two of their most difficult Pac-12 matchups in back-to-back weeks.

Coming out of the bye week, Utah will then travel to Pullman to face off against Washington State which may prove to be slightly more difficult than what ESPN is predicting. Three years in a row, the Utes have bested the Cougars and they'd love nothing more than to potentially spoil any hopes of a College Football Playoff appearance for Utah.

However, with the addition of a new coach and without Jayden De Laura who is now a Wildcat, this doesn't exactly spell out spoiler.

November 5 vs Arizona Wildcats

Utah's FPI Win Probability: 93.3%

While Arizona has been somewhat of a joke for the last few years, this is the game that Utah has got to circle as it's got trap written all over it. 

To this point in the season, the Utes should be somewhere around 7-1 or potentially even 8-0, which could have them feeling overconfident, especially at home base. Additionally, with the recruiting and transfer work Arizona has done this offseason, they should not be taken lightly.

Is there a really good chance Utah wins this game comfortably? Yes. But don't sleep on Arizona.

November 12 vs Stanford Cardinal

Utah's FPI Win Probability: 86.0%

Another week, another set of high odds in Utah's favor. Not only has Stanford been declining for some time but in recent years, they've significantly struggled to figure out how to handle Utah.

Will it be an absolute blowout like last year? Unlikely. But will the Utes win by multiple possessions? Count on it.

November 19 @ Oregon Ducks

Utah's FPI Win Probability: 47.6%

Week 11 in Eugene presents the Ute's first conference matchup where they aren't favored by ESPN, but there's really no telling how this game will go at this point. 

Just under four months away, there's absolutely no way to determine how this game will go as there's just too many factors. Will Bo Nix still be under center at that point? What does the Duck defense look like after Kayvon Thibodeaux? Can the Utes actually win in Eugene? Is there any reason to believe that Utah won't do the same thing they did twice last year?

For now, chalk this up as a question mark as its too early to determine.

November 26 @ Colorado Buffaloes

Utah's FPI Win Probability: 83.7%

With five-straight victories over the Colorado Buffaloes, there's no reason to believe that the streak will end, especially with what may be riding on the outcome. 

If the Utes go into Boulder with ESPN's predicted 9-2 record, they may be looking to avenge an Oregon loss and secure a spot in the Pac-12 Championship in order to defend their title. However, if they walk into Colorado either undefeated or with just a single loss, they'll need to finish strong to keep any CFP hopes alive.

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