How Florida State's Situation with the ACC Could Trigger More Conference Realignment

With Florida State beginning talks with the ACC to seek a withdrawal, college football fans can't help but be reminded of the Pac-12's untimely demise

Whether you like the idea or absolutely hate it, college football might be headed in the direction of two ‘super-conferences’.

A recent article from On3 columnist Andy Staples opens up a laundry list of questions regarding the future of college football as we know it.

While Staples’ article is largely concerned with realignment negotiations between Florida State and the ACC, determining if there is even a remote possibility of the Seminoles leaving, if negotiations were to go in favor of FSU, college football could find itself on the precipice of undeniable change.

The facts and figures of Florida State’s negotiation with the ACC are truly mind-boggling, but greater importance lies in the wavelengths a potential divorce between the two entities would make.

“Make no mistake, a negotiation is going to happen,” Staples wrote, “The potential outcomes at trial are disasters for Florida State or the ACC. Should Florida State lose, it could be stuck in the ACC no matter how much it’s willing to pay. Should the ACC lose, Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami and any other school that wants to leave could walk away scot-free.” 

While the latter outcome might seem like a near impossibility; it wouldn’t be the first time a major conference imploded due to turmoil regarding television rights and profits.

The ball that started rolling when USC and UCLA left the Pac-12 couldn't be stopped. After the two Los Angeles schools packed their bags for the Big 10, other teams in the conference saw no other option. In a sport driven by profits and television rights, teams like Utah, Arizona, Stanford, and Oregon all were forced to escape while they still could. If FSU leaves the ACC, a very similar reality may occur.

For those who still see the collapse of the ACC as an impossibility, Staples paints a clear picture:

“Even if the cost to exit is $300 million or $350 million and Florida State (and/or the others) exits prior to the 2025 football season, it’s not a bad deal for the schools. A school in the Big Ten or SEC is going to make at least $35 million more from its conference than a school in the ACC as currently constituted. With 11 years remaining on the ACC deal at that point, it’s nearly a break-even proposition with a brighter future on the back end.”

The reality is, conferences like the Big 10 and the SEC have more to offer. This makes the fantasy of a ‘Power 2’ a very real (and somewhat scary) possibility.

“If several potentially additive programs buy their way into free agency at once, the competitiveness of the true Power 2 could take over. The Big Ten would see an opportunity to plant its flag in the South. The SEC might feel a need to defend its borders or expand its footprint.”

While it might sound similar to a Sci-Fi plot like that of Dune, conference realignment and the politics of college football will continue so long as schools and programs think they can make greater profits elsewhere.

Regardless, the Florida State-ACC negotiations will be extremely important concerning the future of college football. In the event the ACC’s fate is similar to that of the Pac-12’s, it might only be a matter of time before the grim reaper knocks on the Big 12’s door.