Utah would be Big 12's top Playoff pick, but bettors wasting money on "Prime Effect"

Kyle Whittingham's team is one of the true favorites to make the 12-team postseason

Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 season marks a significant shift in college football, introducing the new 12-team format for the College Football Playoff. This change offers more teams the opportunity to compete for a national championship, and it arrives just in time for Utah's inaugural season in the Big 12. With this new format, the top four highest-ranked conference champions receive a first-round bye, while teams seeded five through twelve will battle it out in the first round. Notably, higher-seeded teams in this range will enjoy the advantage of playing at home.

For Utah, joining the Big 12 comes with fresh prospects and challenges. Historically viewed as a step below the powerhouse Big Ten and SEC, the Big 12's path to the playoffs is more competitive, often limited to one automatic qualifier. This dynamic makes Utah’s mission clear that winning the Big 12 is their best bet to secure a CFP spot. Currently, Utah stands with the third-best odds to make the Playoff at +200 on BetMGM.

However they're not the conference team favored by bettors. The general public's fascination with Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes is undeniable. As soon as Sanders signed on as the team's head coach last year, there was a surge of bets on Colorado to win a national championship. Despite a disappointing season where the Buffs only managed four wins, this enthusiasm has not waned.

Utah Utes 2024 football season at a glance preview

In fact, bettors continue to place significant wagers on Colorado, making them BetMGM's biggest liability to win the Big 12. Remarkably, Sanders' squad is also being heavily backed to make the College Football Playoff. Though five other teams have drawn more money, the Buffaloes’ odds of +2000 to make the Playoff are the longest among the top contenders. Yet, they hold the highest ticket percentage at 8.6%, signaling a strong belief in their potential despite the long odds.

From a rational standpoint, this could be viewed as imprudent betting. Even with the CFP expanding to 12 teams, it is difficult for even the most optimistic fans to envision a team that finished 4-8 last season overcoming significant roster deficiencies to make the playoffs. Nevertheless, bettors seem undeterred by past performance or current realities.

This enthusiasm extends to national championship bets, where Colorado is the second-biggest liability behind Ohio State. The Buckeyes, with a more realistic shot at +700 odds, are logical favorites. In contrast, the Buffaloes’ +20000 odds reflect the immense challenge they face. Despite these odds, Colorado ranks fourth in the number of tickets at 5.1% and sixth in the handle at 4.1%, underscoring the seemingly irrational confidence of the betting public.

So, why are so many people placing bets on a team that sportsbooks suggest has little to no chance? The phenomenon can partly be explained by the charisma and appeal of Deion Sanders, combined with the hope and excitement he brings to the program. Sanders’ reputation as a transformative figure in football could be leading bettors to believe in a rapid turnaround for Colorado.

What's key to Utah's potential success is the return of quarterback Cameron Rising, who missed the previous season. His comeback injects hope and talent into the team, setting the stage for a promising campaign. The Utes' season opener is slated for August 29, with a home game against Southern Utah, marking the beginning of their quest for a national championship.

As Utah navigates this new chapter, their performance in the Big 12 will be pivotal. The combination of the expanded playoff format and the return of a crucial player positions them as a team to watch in the 2024 season. The Utes aim to capitalize on this opportunity, striving to make a significant impact in their new conference and the broader college football landscape.