Vanderbilt Commodores

NCAA Baseball Tournament Prediction 3.0: New No. 1 Team is Familiar to Vanderbilt

The Commodores' biggest rival lost twice this weekend, forcing Tennessee to lose its No. 1 ranking, and Vanderbilt nearly climbs back into the top 16.

Taylor Hodges

Vanderbilt shortstop Jonathan Vastine (13) fields a ground out hit by Arkansas third baseman Brent Iredale (10) during the ninth inning at Hawkins Field in Nashville, Tenn., Friday, March 28, 2025.
Vanderbilt shortstop Jonathan Vastine (13) fields a ground out hit by Arkansas third baseman Brent Iredale (10) during the ninth inning at Hawkins Field in Nashville, Tenn., Friday, March 28, 2025. / Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Vanderbilt fans should be pretty happy this week. The Commodores just swept Florida for the first time in Gainesville, Fla. and their biggest rival, Tennessee, lost two of three games to Texas A&M (a team the Commodores swept themselves).

The Tennessee losses have an added consequence and that is there’s a new No. 1 team in the nation, Arkansas (who swept Vanderbilt two weekends ago). So, Commodore fans won’t have to see “Knoxville Regional” as the first regional in my NCAA Baseball Tournament Bracket 3.0.

The Volunteers are still in line to host a regional and Vanderbilt is right on the edge of breaking back into the top 16 nationally ranked teams. If Vanderbilt can avenge a shocking upset loss a year ago against Dayton on Tuesday, and then win their next SEC series against No. 19 Oklahoma, there’ll be a Nashville Regional in next week’s bracket predictions.

The third version of my NCAA Tournament bracket is below, but here are a few notes and thoughts about my selection process:

  • The SEC leads the way with 13 teams in the tournament, followed by the ACC with eight teams, Big 12 with seven, Conference USA with three and the Big 10 had two.
  • Including Florida or not in last week’s version was a tough choice. It was a lot easier this time after the Gators were swept at home by Vanderbilt. They could still make it into the tournament, but do they really need it? It’s not like anyone in Gainesville would notice because they’re busy celebrating a national basketball championship.
  • Wake Forest made it into the bracket, but that may not last much longer after outfielder Ethan Conrad underwent a season-ending shoulder surgery.
  • Not many other bracket projections include McNeese, but mine does. In my opinion, if Western Kentucky (27-5, 49 RPI) is in then the Cowboys (20-5, 30 RPI) should be too.
  • There are several teams that could be in the last four in and is tough to decide. Here’s the full list of teams that were or could’ve been in my last four in: Michigan, South Florida, Kentucky, Baylor, Creighton, Florida Atlantic, Lamar, Southeastern Louisiana, Fairfield, East Tennessee State, Hawaii, USC, Mississippi State and NC State. Go look at those teams’ resumes and tell me it’s not hard.

Reminder, this isn’t a projection. This is what I think the bracket would look like if the selection committee made its selections today. I use the D1Baseball Top 25 Rankings for the 16 national seeds and use current conference leaders to determine who receives the automatic tournament bids. Also, it seems fair to state that the top 25 ranked teams are in the tournament. So, once those spots were filled, I was left 14 at-large bids to hand out. You can see the full bracket below:

NCAA Baseball Tournament Bracket 3.0

The Michigan Wolverines play the Arkansas Razorbacks during the Amegy Bank College Baseball Series.
The Michigan Wolverines play the Arkansas Razorbacks during the Amegy Bank College Baseball Series presented by Kubota Weekend 2 at Globe Life Field. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Fayetteville Regional

(1) Arkansas
Duke
UT Rio Grande Valley
Navy*

Texas baseball players stand for the National Anthem ahead of the Longhorns' game against the UTSA Roadrunners.
Texas baseball players stand for the National Anthem ahead of the Longhorns' game against the UTSA Roadrunners, March 18, 2025 at UFCU Disch-Falk Field in Austin. / Sara Diggins/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Austin Regional

(2) Texas
Dallas Baptist
UTSA*
Austin Peay*

Tigers Head Coach Jay Johnson, LSU Tigers take on Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Alex Box Stadium in Baton Rouge, LA. Tuesday.
Tigers Head Coach Jay Johnson, LSU Tigers take on Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Alex Box Stadium in Baton Rouge, LA. Tuesday, March 25, 2025. / SCOTT CLAUSE / USATODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Baton Rogue Regional

(3) LSU
Southern Miss
McNeese
Louisiana Tech*

Clemson Head Coach Erik Bakich meets with players and relief pitcher Drew Titsworth (00).
Clemson Head Coach Erik Bakich meets with players and relief pitcher Drew Titsworth (00) during the bottom of the seventh inning at Doug Kingsmore Stadium in Clemson, S.C. Friday, March 21, 2025. / Ken Ruinard - staff / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Clemson Regional

(4) Clemson*
Coastal Carolina
Northeastern*
Missouri State*

Fans fill up Lindsey Nelson Stadium during a NCAA baseball game between the Tennessee Volunteers and Florida Gators.
Fans fill up Lindsey Nelson Stadium during a NCAA baseball game between the Tennessee Volunteers and Florida Gators in Knoxville, Tenn., on Sunday, March 16, 2025. / Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Knoxville Regional

(5) Tennessee
TCU
Fairfield
Davidson*

Ole Miss baseball coach Mike Bianco heads to the mound to change pitchers again after Mississippi State scored four runs.
Ole Miss baseball coach Mike Bianco heads to the mound to change pitchers again after Mississippi State scored four runs in the eighth inning at Trustmark Perk in Pearl, Miss., Wednesday, May 1, 2024. / Barbara Gauntt/Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK

Oxford Regional

(6) Ole Miss
West Virginia
St. John's*
Pennsylvania*

Georgia gets ready to take the field during a NCAA baseball game against Kentucky on March 14, 2025.
Georgia gets ready to take the field during a NCAA baseball game against Kentucky on March 14, 2025. / Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Athens Regional

(7) Georgia
Georgia Tech
Grand Canyon*
New Jersey Tech*

Oregon State players huddle Nelson Keljo (36) on the mound during an NCAA college baseball game at Goss Stadium on Friday.
Oregon State players huddle Nelson Keljo (36) on the mound during an NCAA college baseball game at Goss Stadium on Friday, March 7, 2025, in Corvallis, Ore. / Kevin Neri/Statesman Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Corvallis Regional

(8) Oregon State
Cal Poly*
Samford*
Gonzaga*

The Florida State Seminoles hosted the Florida Gators at Dick Howser Stadium on Tuesday, March 11, 2025.
The Florida State Seminoles hosted the Florida Gators at Dick Howser Stadium on Tuesday, March 11, 2025. / Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tallahassee Regional

(9) Florida State
Kentucky
Florida Atlantic
Florida A&M*

Los Angeles Regional

(10) UCLA
Oklahoma
Wake Forest
Ball State*

The Auburn Tigers play against the Oregon State Beavers during the Amegy Bank College Baseball Series.
The Auburn Tigers play against the Oregon State Beavers during the Amegy Bank College Baseball Series presented by Kubota Weekend 3 at Globe Life Field. / Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Auburn Regional

(11) Auburn
Virginia Tech
Western Kentucky
Houston Christian*

Alabama head coach Rob Vaughn watches from the dugout as Alabama plays Tennessee.
Alabama head coach Rob Vaughn watches from the dugout as Alabama plays Tennessee in game 2 of the series at Sewell-Thomas Stadium. / Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tuscaloosa Regional

(12) Alabama
Troy*
Baylor
Southern Indiana*

UC Irvine's Ricky Ojeda pitches against Texas Tech during a non-conference Division I baseball game, Friday, Feb. 21, 2025.
UC Irvine's Ricky Ojeda pitches against Texas Tech during a non-conference Division I baseball game, Friday, Feb. 21, 2025, at Dan Law Field. / Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Irvine Regional

(13) UC Irvine
South Carolina
St. Thomas*
Wright State*

Louisville Regional

(14) Louisville
Kansas
Mississippi State
Central Connecticut

Oregon Ducks baseball series vs. Michigan Wolverines April 4, 2025.
Oregon Ducks baseball series vs. Michigan Wolverines April 4, 2025. / Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Eugene Regional

(15) Oregon
Arizona
Kansas State
Fresno State*

North Carolina Tar Heels players look an after a loss against the Florida State Seminoles at Charles Schwab Field Omaha.
North Carolina Tar Heels players look an after a loss against the Florida State Seminoles at Charles Schwab Field Omaha. / Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images

Chapel Hill Regional

(16) North Carolina
Vanderbilt
Creighton
High Point*

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Taylor Hodges
TAYLOR HODGES

Taylor Hodges is a staff writer for Vanderbilt Commodores On SI covering all-things Vanderbilt. Taylor brings more than a decade’s worth of award-winning sports writing, photography and video experience covering every level of sports — from Little League baseball to professional sports and other sports like hunting and fishing. Taylor is fueled by his lifelong passion for sports that began the same day Kirk Gibson hit his legendary World Series walk-off home run, Arkansas beat Texas in Austin and No. 4 Notre Dame beat No. 1 Miami in the Catholics vs. Convicts game.

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