ACC Weekly Roundup: Power Rankings and the Good, Bad, and Ugly

William Smythe | Feb 23, 2025

Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Duke has distanced itself from the ACC field with a 43-point win over Illinois — the worst loss suffered in program history. Although Clemson bested the Blue Devils in Littlejohn Coliseum, Coach Jon Scheyer’s crew has all the makings of a National Championship-caliber team. They just proved that they can take a break from a lighter ACC schedule and still dismantle a Big Ten opponent on a neutral site; moreover, freshman Cooper Flagg (19.5 PPG, 7.7 RPG) is building his case for the National Player of the Year, competing against fifth-year Auburn center Johni Broome (18.0 PPG, 11.0 RPG) at this juncture in the season.

As for other ACC news, a 36-year-old Jai Lucas — the associate head coach at Duke — will be taking the Miami job at the end of the season. Lucas played at Florida and Texas, and he has garnered attention for churning out Duke’s ever-consistent recruiting classes. Miami’s NIL war chest and unique position in South Beach will give him some leverage in that arena. 

Now, with the Miami position secured, vacancies remain at Florida State (and at Virginia). I wouldn’t be surprised if Virginia Tech sees a changing of the guard, as well, even with Coach Mike Young’s success with an inexperienced roster this season. Multiple coaches — Notre Dame’s Micah Shrewsberry, NC State’s Kevin Keatts, Syracuse’s Adrian Autry, and North Carolina’s Hubert Davis — will all likely have one more year to prove themselves.

In terms of Joe Lunardi’s ESPN Bracketology, this is where things stand for the ACC: Duke (1), Clemson (6), Louisville (6), Wake Forest (First Four In), North Carolina (First Four Out). Following their 12-point loss at NC State, the Demon Deacons still haven’t fallen to the other, less attractive side of the bubble, but their margin for error is razor-thin. The Tar Heels might soon swap with them after dominating NC State and Virginia. Pitt found themselves out of bubble consideration on account of a crushing loss to Notre Dame this weekend. Realistically, North Carolina could emerge as the lone bubbler.

In a League of their Own:

1. Duke (24-3, 15-1 ACC)

2nd Tier:

2. Clemson (22-5, 14-2)
3. Louisville (21-6, 14-2)

3rd Tier: 

4. North Carolina (17-11, 10-6)
5. Wake Forest (19-8, 11-5)
6. SMU (20-7, 11-5)
7. Stanford (17-10, 9-7)
8. Pittsburgh (16-11, 7-9)

4th Tier:

9. Florida State (16-11, 7-9)
10. Georgia Tech (13-14, 7-9)
11. Virginia Tech (12-15, 7-9)
12. Virginia (13-14, 6-10)
13. Notre Dame (12-15, 6-10)
14. California (12-15, 5-11)
15. Syracuse (11-16, 5-11)
16. NC State (11-16, 4-12)
17. Boston College (12-15, 4-12)
18. Miami (6-21, 2-14)

The Good: North Carolina pushing for an at-large, Boston College easily defends home court

Sure, the Tar Heels didn’t play Duke, Clemson, or Louisville this week. However, they trounced both NC State and Virginia as they continue to fight for a spot on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. Fifth-year forward Jae’Lyn Withers has risen from the ashes after a rough start to the season and scored 19 and 16 against the Orange and Cavaliers, respectively. Withers — who went nine for 14 from three-point land during that three-game stretch — has the ability to stretch the floor and provides a semblance of an interior presence for a roster still lacking a formidable frontcourt. 

A backcourt duo of fifth-year RJ Davis (17.5 PPG) and freshman Ian Jackson (13.6 PPG) should strike fear in the hearts of opposing guards. While sophomore Elliot Cadeau has struggled to take the reins as North Carolina’s next great point guard, the rest of the Tar Heels’ backcourt can score in bunches. The burden will still fall on this group, though, as success in March and April is often determined by guard play.

Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has the Tar Heels as one of his “First Four Out” in the NCAA Tournament field. With Duke the only true resume-building opportunity on the horizon, the stakes in the Tobacco Road Rivalry will be higher than ever come March 8th in Chapel Hill.

Boston College’s 54-36 win over Virginia Tech appeared to be an average Virginia score line against a middling ACC opponent in the Bennett era. Their stout defensive performance carried over into a commanding 69-54 victory over Georgia Tech at home, with the Eagles forcing 13 turnovers and a measly 32.1% FG from the Yellow Jackets. Boston College, moreover, held Virginia Tech to the lowest output by an ACC team against the Eagles since the 2005-06 season. That’s quite a turnaround considering their four-game losing streak coming into that contest in Chestnut Hill. The Hokies scored 11 points in the first half.

The Eagles now have something for which to aspire — a spot in the ACC Tournament. 15 of the 18 teams in-conference will make the field. Boston College will have to hope that California and/or Syracuse slides, yet they can also control their own destiny on a road trip out west against the former and Stanford. Their last two matchups — home against Clemson and at Pittsburgh — are more difficult opportunities. 

Boston College’s priority this offseason ought to be sophomore guard Donald Hand Jr. (16.6 PPG). The Virginia Beach native has taken a major leap in his second year in the ACC and will be courted by multiple suitors this offseason. Can the Eagles retain a budding talent, or is it inevitable that Hand looks elsewhere?

The Bad: Virginia’s momentum screeches to a halt, Syracuse’s continued disappointment

A brief moment of optimism within Virginia’s turbulent season has fizzled out. The Cavaliers — who won three straight prior to a home matchup against Duke — couldn’t compete with the Blue Devils’ talent, and they were a no-show against North Carolina in the first half. Virginia allowed the Tar Heels to race out to a 21-2 start in the Dean Dome. Why didn’t interim head coach Ron Sanchez start freshman center Anthony Robinson or roll out more combinations with him and Jacob Cofie — two promising frontcourt talents for the ‘Hoos? Virginia didn’t take advantage of their size advantage over North Carolina and lost the rebounding battle, 35-21. 

Sophomore center Blake Buchanan (5.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG just hasn’t played up to expectations, and Sanchez ought to roll out a shorter leash in favor of Robinson. The ‘Hoos also shot 27.3% from behind the arc as opposed to the Tar Heels’ 56.3% clip. Unfortunately, junior guard Andrew Rohde committed four turnovers and only dished out four assists, a stark contrast from his near-flawless play against the likes of Virginia Tech, Pitt, and Georgia Tech. 

It is now almost certain that Virginia will move on from Sanchez. Opportunities against Duke and North Carolina emerged as needle-moving windows for him to push for a full-time position, but to no avail. The ‘Hoos, however, have put themselves in a comfortable position to make the ACC Tournament. An upset at home against Clemson would help.

Coach Adrian Autry’s second year as the head coach at Syracuse hasn’t gone according to plan. Losses to Pitt and North Carolina are understandable, but the Orange had home court advantage against the latter and squandered an 11-point lead against the former. Syracuse — a proud program which won the National Championship in 2003 — won’t make the tournament for the fourth consecutive season. Do they look elsewhere already, or do they stick with Autry in a make-or-break year in 2025-26? He’ll almost certainly get another chance.

The Orange don’t have any wins over a top-half team in the ACC; moreover, their best non-conference result came against Cornell. Junior guard JJ Starling (18.5 PPG) has been the straw that stirs the drink for Syracuse’s offense, but his production is also offset by a porous 28.4% 3PT. Junior forward Chris Bell — his supposed partner-in-crime — has shown flashes but hasn’t been nearly consistent enough as a scorer. There’s a very slim chance that Syracuse hangs on to five-star freshman Donnie Freeman (13.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG), as well.

‘Cuse is now playing for a berth to the ACC Tournament. While expectations weren’t exactly high for the Orange, they’ve majorly disappointed in year two of Autry. A change from the Boeheim era might not hurt a school with ample resources, a strong pedigree, and the largest arena in college basketball.

The Ugly: Bubble chances dwindle for Wake Forest, SMU, and Pitt

SMU’s 79-69 loss to Clemson wasn’t exactly ugly. However, the Mustangs have no Quad 1 wins, and that chance slipped through their fingers against the Tigers. They’ve also lost big to the likes of Duke, North Carolina, and Louisville — all Quad 1 teams. It will be incredibly hard for Coach Andy Enfield’s team to earn a spot in the Big Dance without a semifinal/final run in the ACC Tournament, and that will have to include a win over Duke, Louisville, or Clemson.

Wake Forest just witnessed its tournament chances dwindle considerably after a road loss against an 11-16 NC State. The Demon Deacons have wins over Michigan, North Carolina, and SMU, but they’ve also dropped brutal losses to Florida State and the Wolfpack. Coach Steve Forbes must feel tormented by the “so close, but so far” epidemic that has plagued Wake Forest in his five-year tenure in Winston-Salem. Many thought that this was the year to get the Demon Deacons over the tournament hump, but they might have to beat Duke on the road to make that a serious possibility. As with SMU and Pitt, Wake Forest needs to put together a strong performance in the ACC Tournament. 

It would be a shame if a program that has produced two ACC Players of the Year and an All-ACC First-Team guard — Hunter Sallis (18.3 PPG) — in the last three years can’t get to the tournament under Forbes. A good chunk of this crew will be heading elsewhere next year, so the clock is ticking.

Pitt looked poised for a top-three finish in the ACC at the start of the season. Two separate four-game losing streaks ensued, and the Panthers are now quite far from the right side of the bubble with only one major opportunity lying ahead — at Louisville. A recent loss to Notre Dame (alongside defeats to Virginia and Florida State) might be the nail in the coffin for this group. Although Coach Jeff Capel has a Round of 32 appearance under his belt, the momentum from that 2022-23 season has slowed. Capel is in a similar boat as Forbes.

I would be surprised if any of these three made the NCAA Tournament. As mentioned, North Carolina looks to have the best chance to complement Duke, Louisville, and Clemson in the Big Dance, and that assumes they avoid trap games at Florida State and Virginia Tech prior to the big one in Chapel Hill.

We skipped last week, but click here to read the most recent edition of the ACC Basketball Weekly Roundup.