ACC Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding Scenarios

ACC Tournament scenarios for every ACC team for the final weekend of the regular season

As we enter the final weekend of the college basketball regular season, the seeds and matchups for next week's ACC Tournament are nearly set, but there are still some significant changes that can take place in the conference standings with the outcomes of Saturday's games. 

Here are the current ACC men's basketball standings as well as what's at stake for each team's seeding scenario on the last day of the regular season:

1. Duke (26-4, 16-3 ACC)

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The Blue Devils have already clinched their first ACC regular season title since 2010 and the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament, but they still have plenty to play for on Saturday, as they look to complete the season sweep over North Carolina in Coach K's final game at Cameron Indoor. 

2. Notre Dame (21-9, 14-5 ACC)

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The Fighting Irish cannot catch up to the Blue Devils for the No. 1 seed, but they currently hold the No. 2 seed due to owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over North Carolina. Notre Dame locks up the No. 2 seed with a win against Pittsburgh OR a North Carolina loss at Duke. Notre Dame can finish no worse than No. 3 in the ACC, as the Irish also own the head-to-head tiebreaker over current No. 4 seed Miami in the event of a tie. 

In the event of a three-way tie for No. 2 between Notre Dame, Miami, and North Carolina, the seeding would be as follows due to the teams' combined winning percentage against the group: 

2. Notre Dame (2-0 vs. Miami and North Carolina)

3. Miami (1-1 vs. Notre Dame and North Carolina)

4. North Carolina (0-2 vs. Notre Dame and Miami)

3. North Carolina (22-8, 14-5 ACC)

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The Tar Heels have clinched at least a double-bye in the ACC Tournament, but they will need to pull the upset at Duke AND have Notre Dame lose to Pittsburgh in order to move up to the No. 2 seed. UNC could also slip down to the No. 4 seed with a loss to Duke and a win by Miami at Syracuse. 

In the event of a three-way tie for No. 2 between Notre Dame, Miami, and North Carolina, the seeding would be as follows due to the teams' combined winning percentage against the group:

2. Notre Dame (2-0 vs. Miami and North Carolina)

3. Miami (1-1 vs. Notre Dame and North Carolina)

4. North Carolina (0-2 vs. Notre Dame and Miami)

4. Miami (21-9, 13-6 ACC)

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The Hurricanes have guaranteed at least a fourth-place finish in the ACC standings, ensuring that they will have a double-bye in the ACC Tournament. Even with a loss at Syracuse on Saturday, Miami maintains the No. 4 seed over Wake Forest, who the Canes swept in the regular season. 

Miami can move up to the No. 3 seed with a win at the Carrier Dome and a loss by North Carolina at Duke, as the Hurricanes own the head-to-head tiebreaker over UNC as well. 

In the event of a three-way tie for No. 2 between Notre Dame, Miami, and North Carolina, the seeding would be as follows due to the teams' combined winning percentage against the group:

2. Notre Dame (2-0 vs. Miami and North Carolina)

3. Miami (1-1 vs. Notre Dame and North Carolina)

4. North Carolina (0-2 vs. Notre Dame and Miami)

5. Wake Forest (23-8, 13-7 ACC)

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Wake Forest is locked into the No. 5 seed in the ACC Tournament. The Demon Deacons do not play a game this weekend and, even if Miami loses at Syracuse to bring the two teams even at 13-7 in ACC play, the Hurricanes own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Wake Forest is a game and a half above Virginia and Virginia Tech in the standings. 

6. Virginia (17-12, 11-8 ACC)

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Virginia will clinch the No. 6 seed in the ACC Tournament with a win at Louisville OR a loss by Virginia Tech at Clemson. The two rivals are tied at 11-8 in ACC play and they split the regular season series 1-1. The Cavaliers hold the advantage in the next round of tiebreaking procedures, due to their 1-1 record against the top seed in the ACC: Duke. Virginia Tech went 0-1 against the Blue Devils this season. 

READ MORE: College Basketball Bracketology: How Many ACC Teams Will Make the NCAA Tournament?

7. Virginia Tech (19-11, 11-8 ACC)

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Virginia Tech needs to win at Clemson AND have Virginia lose at Louisville on Saturday in order to move up to the No. 6 seed. Otherwise, the Hokies will be the No. 7 seed in the ACC Tournament, as the Cavaliers own the tiebreaker due to their better winning percentage against Duke this season. 

8. Florida State (16-13, 9-10 ACC)

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Similar to the scenario with Virginia and Virginia Tech, Florida State and Syracuse are tied in the ACC standings and split the regular season series 1-1. The Seminoles hold the tiebreaker due to their 1-1 record against top-seeded Duke, while Syracuse went 0-2 against the Blue Devils. 

Florida State clinches the No. 8 seed with a win against NC State OR a loss by Syracuse to Miami. 

Interestingly, Florida State and Syracuse are set to face each other in the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game in the second round of the ACC Tournament regardless of the outcome of this weekend's games. Whether the Seminoles or the Orange have the eighth seed only changes which team wears their home jerseys when the two teams meet on Wednesday at the Barclays Center. 

9. Syracuse (15-15, 9-10 ACC)

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See the tiebreaker above: Syracuse will need a win over Miami AND a loss by Florida State to NC State in order to move up to the No. 8 seed. And, as we said above, it essentially doesn't matter. Syracuse and Florida State are already locked in to play in the second round of the ACC Tournament as the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds on Wednesday at 12pm. 

10. Clemson (15-15, 7-12 ACC)

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With a win over Virginia Tech on Saturday, Clemson locks up the No. 10 seed in the ACC Tournament. If the Tigers lose, they could fall into a tie with as many three other teams: Louisville, Boston College, and Pittsburgh (depending on if any of those teams win their games on Saturday), triggering several other tiebreaker scenarios that we won't get into. 

11. Louisville (12-17, 6-13 ACC)

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Louisville is one game below Clemson for 10th place in the ACC standings. With a win over Virginia AND a loss by Clemson to Virginia Tech, the Cardinals would finish tied with the Tigers in the ACC standings at 7-13. Louisville owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Clemson, but the situation becomes vastly more complicated if Boston College and/or Pittsburgh also win on Saturday, bringing those teams into the tiebreaking procedures as well. 

12. Pittsburgh (11-19, 6-13 ACC)

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Pittsburgh is also one game below Clemson, but the Tigers own the head-to-head advantage over the Panthers. Pitt would need a cluttered tiebreaker scenario to move up to the No. 10 seed, but could also finish as low as the No. 13 seed with a loss at Notre Dame on Saturday. 

13. Boston College (11-18, 6-13 ACC)

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The Eagles can put themselves in the crowded tiebreaking procedures for the No. 10 seed with a victory at Georgia Tech on Saturday. As is the case with Pittsburgh and Louisville, Boston College can finish as low as the No. 13 seed or as high as No. 10 if the cards fall right for the Eagles. 

14. NC State (11-19, 4-15 ACC)

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NC State is currently tied with Georgia Tech for 14th-place in the ACC standings at 4-15 in conference play. The Wolfpack own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Yellow Jackets, so NC State will lock up the No. 14 seed with a win at Florida State OR a loss by Georgia Tech against Boston College. 

15. Georgia Tech (11-19, 4-15 ACC)

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The defending ACC Tournament champions will enter this year's tournament as the No. 15 seed unless the Yellow Jackets beat Boston College AND NC State loses at Florida State on Saturday, in which case they will have the No. 14 seed. 

Here is the bracket and schedule for the 2022 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament, which begins next week at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. 

2022 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament Bracket

READ MORE: College Basketball Bracketology: How Many ACC Teams Will Make the NCAA Tournament?