How Virginia’s Big Win at Miami Impacts the Hoos' NCAA Tournament Hopes

Will the Cavaliers earn a March Madness bid?

Virginia’s recent four-game winning streak, which included pivotal wins over Miami and at Duke, seemingly resurrected UVA’s March Madness chances after a lackluster start to conference play that saw the Cavaliers alternate wins and losses for nine consecutive games. Last Monday’s loss at Virginia Tech snapped that winning streak and served as a serious setback to those postseason hopes.

Coming into the weekend, BracketResearch.com gave Virginia a 0.9% chance of making the NCAA Tournament. UVA was ranked 82 in the NET rankings, 78 on KenPom, 60 on Sagarin, 61 in BPI, and Virginia was 52 in strength of schedule and 66 in strength of record. Evidently, the Cavaliers’ path to March Madness hinged on a near-perfect run to end the regular season and a strong showing in the ACC Tournament.

While Virginia’s 74-71 victory at Miami on Saturday was a crucial first step, its singular impact on UVA’s current March Madness odds was marginal. After the win, BracketResearch.com now gives the Cavaliers a 1.7% chance of making the NCAA Tournament. Virginia’s NET ranking moved up two spots to 80 and UVA had similar small improvements in the other ratings: Kenpom 74 (up four), Sagarin 59 (up one), BPI 59 (up two), SOS 50 (up two), SOR 63 (up three). Just two of the 119 bracket projections listed on BracketMatrix.com currently include the Cavaliers in the field of 68. Most bracketologists have Virginia ranked in the high 70s, around 10 positions away from the cut line. 

Virginia’s win at Miami gives the Hoos a marquee road victory against a team that will likely make the NCAA Tournament as well as a third Quad 1 win. UVA is now 3-5 against Quad 1, 4-2 against Quad 2, 3-3 against Quad 3, and 7-0 against Quad 4. 

But most importantly, UVA won a must-win game, which sets up another golden opportunity for a season-defining win as the Cavaliers aim for the ultra-rare season-sweep of Duke on Wednesday night at John Paul Jones Arena. Duke is currently ranked No. 12 in the NET rankings and No. 9 in KenPom. A win over the Blue Devils would also give the Cavaliers a fourth Quad 1 win.

Of course, Virginia has to also take care of business at home against Florida State (NET 98) and at Louisville (Net 124) in the regular season finale and then win a game or two in the ACC Tournament in order to be squarely on the right side of the bubble. But, the win at Miami means that the Cavaliers still have a chance to control their own destiny, whereas a loss to Miami likely would have reduced their chances of making the NCAA Tournament down to a single avenue: winning the ACC Tournament Championship and securing the conference’s automatic bid.

In all likelihood, Duke will be the heavy favorite to avenge the 69-68 loss to Virginia at Cameron on February 7th and there is no question that the Blue Devils will bring their A-game as they look for some payback against the Cavaliers on their home floor. The odds are stacked against UVA, but the Wahoos have proven that they are capable of beating Duke, so who’s to say that they can’t do it again. The season depends on it. 

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