Point/Counterpoint: Six Preseason Questions for Virginia Men's Basketball

Matt and Val try to answer the questions looming large as the Cavaliers prepare for the 2023-2024 basketball season

If there is one common denominator to both the UVA men's and women's basketball programs this year, it is churn. As in there are a LOT of new bodies for Coach Bennett and Coach Mox to assimilate into their respective programs. And questions abound. We're going to cover both sides of the house, but we're starting with the men. Matt has begun his player-by-player breakdown with Isaac McKneely (which you can read here) and Taine Murray (here.) and Val has written on the overall roster here.

Let's see what the big questions that are on the mind of Cavalier Nation.

1. Only three returning players played significant minutes last season: Reece Beekman, Isaac McKneely and Ryan Dunn. Of the three, who is the most important?

Matt: All three of these players will be vitally important for Virginia this season. They have serious 'Big Three' potential, of course alluding to the Kyle Guy-Ty Jerome-De'Andre Hunter trio from the 2019 National Championship team. Each of those three guys had the ability to create their own shot, especially in critical moments and that's something that's largely been missing for Virginia since then. With that in mind, Reece Beekman is the most important player on the team as he could very well become that go-to playmaker in crucial situations. We already know that he has the clutch gene - his buzzer-beating threes against Syracuse and Duke immediately come to mind. But with the keys to the offense firmly in his possession this season, Beekman has to fully step into that role and make the game-winning plays with the ball in his hands. Ryan Dunn and Isaac McKneely can elevate the ceiling of this team with breakout seasons, but Beekman is driving the bus, so it all starts with him.

Val: No doubt that this is Reece’s year. I’m as big a fan of Kihei as there is, but even I am truly excited to see Reece as the conductor of this orchestra. We know what we are going to get in Beekman, and I don’t think it’s too big of a leap to think that McKneely is going to make the sophomore jump. No, the more important guy is Ryan Dunn. You and I have both seen the mock drafts that show Dunn as a future 1st round pick. I don’t buy it; but there is no doubt that Dunn is a physical specimen. One of the things I was critical of Coach Tony Bennett last year was his use of Dunn, whose minutes fluctuated spasmodically. Dunn had only four games where he played over 20 minutes, yet he had 13 games where he played 10 minutes or less, the last of which came as late as the first round of the ACC tournament! Dunn has the tools, but he shot 50% from the line and 31% from deep. Dunn has to be special for this to be a special team. He is the most important player.

2. In a similar vein, who amongst the newcomers is going to have the biggest impact?

Matt: It's going to be close between Andrew Rohde and Jordan Minor for the biggest impact transfer for Virginia this season. Minor will be relied on to play a big role on the defensive end as he slides in at center, but Rohde could have an even greater impact on the offensive end. Rohde gives the Cavaliers another big guard capable of handling the ball, generating offense, and knocking down shots. I'm optimistic that his 32.0% three-point percentage will improve as his shot quality improves. Rohde was taking a lot of difficult shots off the dribble last season. At Virginia, he'll be the beneficiary of Reece Beekman's dribble drives and the spacing provided by Isaac McKneely on the other side of the floor, leading to more open catch-and-shoot three-point attempts. Rohde isn't likely to replicate his 17.1 points per game from last year, but he'll bring an essential scoring punch to the Cavaliers this season.

Val: I am as tantalized as anyone by the prospect of what Rohde can bring, but I’m not even sure he starts. There are other guys, Matt, who can line up at the three for this team, but as of right now, there is only one guy who can play the five, and that is Minor. Other than Beekman, Minor is the only lock to get 30 minutes a game. He had some freshman issues with fouling, because, you know, playing center is hard for freshmen. (Mamadi Diakite and Kadin Shedrick are examples 1 and 1A of this fact.) Minor has steadily improved on that with experience, though he, like Rohde is making a huge jump in competition coming to the ACC. If Minor can give us production down low like Justyn Mutts did at Virginia Tech, I will be very happy.

3. 4/5s of the starting lineup seems assured at this point. Beekman is at point, McKneely is shooting guard, Dunn is the big wing (or the four) and Jordan Minor will be in the center. Who is the fifth starter?

Matt: I think it's possible that the answer to that question differs depending on if we're talking about Virginia's starting lineup for the season opener or for the entire season. Tony Bennett could go with a more experienced player like Taine Murray or another one who has been in the program for more than a year like Leon Bond III, who is coming off of a redshirt year, as that last starter to begin the season. But I think Andrew Rohde has as good a chance as any to crack the starting lineup by the time conference play rolls around. With his potential to significantly elevate Virginia's ceiling on the offensive end, give him some time to get adjusted (especially to the Pack Line Defense) and Rohde could slide in perfectly to make a formidable starting five for the Cavaliers.

Val: It ain’t going to be Taine Murray, Matt. And I think you hinted at the answer when you said “been at the program….” Because that describes Dante Harris, the Georgetown point guard who transferred in for the spring semester last year. Harris does have that Bennett seasoning of more time in the system. Since the arrival of Kihei Clark on grounds, Bennett has been very comfortable with two ball handlers. And assistant coach Jason Williford has just said that the thinks Harris is a better on-ball defender than Clark. All the bigs at the back end of the Pack Line are new. I’m betting that Bennett is going to want to have the best defense possible in the back court.

4. It seems Virginia has an easier schedule this year (since you can't play all fourteen teams twice with a 20-game ACC slate) in that UVA only plays Duke and UNC once. Is this a good thing or a bad thing?

Matt: For resume purposes, it's not good that Virginia only plays Duke and North Carolina once. But considering those matchups come towards the back end of the season, they'll carry so much weight on their own that (assuming the normal recency bias for the NCAA Tournament selection committee) it won't matter quite as much that UVA only plays those two teams once - and there's still the possibility (likelihood) that Virginia meets either or both of those teams in the ACC Tournament as well. Additionally, success in March is most important, but winning the ACC regular season title is no small feat and this schedule gives the Hoos a great chance to win their second-straight ACC regular season title and seventh in the last 11 seasons.

Val: Definitely it’s better for winning that seventh ACC regular season title. As a soccer guy, I think the champion, and the team to get the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, ought to be regular season winner. Not the tourney winner. So, I want regular season titles. Full stop. But if this team wants to advance to at least the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, then this team needs more preparation. The ACC is down. Sad fact, but true. Duke and UNC look good this year, but nowhere as elite as they’ve been. Louisville is coming off an historically awful season and the bottom dwellers this year might be Florida State and Notre Dame. Whew. The ACC isn’t the meat grinder it’s normally been. And after last year’s sparkling out-of-conference slate, which included then top 10 teams Baylor, Illinois and Houston (plus Michigan) this year seems rather tame. Texas A&M? Wisconsin? Memphis? That’s lackluster. The women’s soccer team played a similarly un-challenging OOC slate, have been caught unprepared for ACC play, and are in serious jeopardy of missing their Big Dance for the first time in 25 years. I fear the men could be hammered when the seeds are announced.

5. What is flying under the radar as this season is coming upon us?

Matt: I'm going to go with the low-hanging fruit that VIRGINIA is flying under the radar as the season approaches. Preseason polls are coming out and most of the pundits who cover college basketball on a national level are omitting the Cavaliers from their preseason rankings. We'll see where UVA sits in the official ACC preseason poll after the ACC Tipoff event, but it seems Tony Bennett and company are being doubted once again. We could go on and on about how the recruiting data actually suggests that this will be one of the most talented teams of the Bennett era or that this is likely his most athletic roster, but we'll just settle on saying: when will they learn?

Val: I’m going to go with the date of November 10th, the date of the second game, against Florida in Charlotte, North Carolina. It was after the second game last year that Bennett announced that Isaac Traudt was redshirting. Traudt was the highest ranked of the McKneely – Dunn – Bond – Traudt quartet, and while we now know he suffered from homesickness, I am sure that not being able to play the game he loved had to factor into Traudt’s decision to transfer away. Which brings me to Blake Buchanan. Is he going to redshirt this year? Every big since Mike Tobey has redshirted. Is Bennett going to allow Buchanan to play this year? He’s a true center on a team that really only has Minor to man the low block. Transfer Jake Groves has some height, but he’s been a stretch four for his entire career and he’s going to spell Dunn. I’ve heard some hopeful chatter that freshman Anthony Robinson is special, but he, hello, is also a freshman. I can’t see him playing if Buchanan is not. Last year Bennett had Shedrick and Francisco Caffaro when he redshirted Traudt. Buchanan’s path to playing time is clearer, but has Bennett adjusted to the notion of playing a freshman center?

6. What's the biggest key for a successful season?

Matt: I don't believe that how a team fares in the NCAA Tournament is the sole determinant in whether that team had a successful season. I would still argue that the 2017-2018 Virginia Cavaliers that went 31-3, winning both the ACC regular season and Tournament titles along the way, but losing historically to UMBC in the first round, had a wildly successful season. [Val: Hear! Hear!] With that said, since Tony Bennett has had so much pre-NCAA Tournament success but hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game since winning it all in 2019, whether the Cavaliers can go on a run in March or not will ultimately define if the 2023-2024 UVA men's basketball season is a successful one.

The biggest key towards Virginia having a successful season is three-point shooting. No matter how good UVA's defense is or how well the Hoos execute in the other facets of Bennett Ball, the NCAA Tournament is a crapshoot and the only way to develop an immunity to the fluky nature of March Madness is to be able to consistently put the ball in the basket, in particular from beyond the arc. Virginia's most successful NCAA Tournament teams under Bennett (2016 Elite Eight and 2019 National Champs) shot the ball around 40% from three. That's the key to a sustained run in the NCAA Tournament.

Val: The key to the season is how quickly Bennett settles on his rotation. There are a lot of tantalizing options available to Bennett. The raw athleticism of Leon Bond and Elijah Gertrude, coupled with the speed of Harris, means that this could be the most physical backcourt Bennett has ever coached. Groves has a sweet stroke, and if he is the third best three-point shooter on the court (behind McKneely and Rohde) well that would speak well to your point, Matt. Bennett has had teams where I thought the depth warranted going ten players deep. But traditionally Bennett keeps his bench short, rarely playing more than eight players. If Bennett goes only 8-deep again, only one of Buchanan, Bond or Gertrude will see the hardwood this year. Those that make it early into the rotation will have done so against marginal competition. How well those guys adjust as we move into ACC play will determine how successful the year goes.

CavaliersNow will be here all season breaking down the men’s and women’s seasons. Both teams will be on display this Saturday for the Blue – White scrimmage. Matt will be on the scene for the scrimmages and will have the full scoop, including stats, video highlights, and key takeaways. 

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