Ranking Virginia's Last Ten Games from Most Winnable to Least Winnable

How many of the last ten games will the Cavaliers win?

With just ten games remaining the Virginia men's basketball regular season, the Cavaliers finds themselves in unfamiliar territory. UVA is at risk of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013. The Hoos likely need to win at least eight of their last ten games in order to give themselves even a chance at earning an at-large March Madness selection. Otherwise, UVA will have to win the ACC Tournament and secure the conference's automatic bid. 

With that in mind, here are our rankings for Virginia's final ten games, ordered from most winnable to least winnable. 

Ranking Virginia's Last Ten Games from Most Winnable to Least Winnable

Ranking the final ten games on the Virginia men's basketball schedule from most winnable to least winnable

vs. Georgia Tech (Feb. 12)

Photo courtesy of Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports

Current record: 9-10, 2-6 (14th in ACC standings)

The defending ACC Tournament Champions currently sit at 14th in the ACC standings, but managed to take down Florida State on Wednesday night. UVA ought to know by now not to underestimate any opponent, but playing the Yellow Jackets at home is certainly the most winnable game left on the schedule for the Cavaliers. 

vs. Boston College (Feb. 1)

Photo courtesy of Jamie Rhodes/USA TODAY Sports

Current record: 8-11, 3-6 (tied 9th in ACC standings)

The Eagles have shown their promise in impressive ACC wins over Notre Dame and Clemson, but the 13th-ranked offense in the conference has routinely struggled to put up enough points to win games. If Virginia can deliver a solid defensive performance, a home game against BC should be a win for the Hoos. 

at Louisville (Mar. 5)

Photo courtesy of Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports

Current record: 11-9, 5-5 (8th in ACC standings)

Virginia led wire-to-wire and beat Louisville 64-52 at JPJ in the first meeting. Beating a team twice in one season is no easy feat and UVA will have to do so on the road. But, the Cavaliers have had Louisville's number since the Cards joined the ACC and there seems to be no shortage of internal issues in the program, as Chris Mack steps down from his position in the middle of the season. 

at Virginia Tech (Feb. 14)

Photo courtesy of Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports

Current record: 10-10, 2-7 (15th in ACC standings)

The Cavaliers held on to take down their in-state rivals 54-52 in Charlottesville on January 12th. As we said before, beating any team twice is challenging, and the Hoos will have to overcome a very motivated Virginia Tech team on the road in what is sure to be a very energized and hostile environment at Cassell Coliseum. 

at Notre Dame (Jan. 29)

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports

Current record: 13-6, 6-2 (tied for 2nd in ACC standings)

Virginia's next game is certainly one of the most critical games remaining on the schedule. The Fighting Irish have quietly put together a very strong season so far, picking up wins over Kentucky and North Carolina and jumping out to a 5-2 start to ACC play. Virginia has played and won some very competitive games against Notre Dame in the last couple of years. The Cavaliers will need to do so again to achieve a critical victory over the Irish in South Bend. 

vs. Miami (Feb. 5)

Photo courtesy of Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports

Current record: 15-5, 7-2 (1st in ACC standings)

Miami has been without a doubt the surprise of the ACC season so far. Picked to finish 12th in the ACC in the preseason media poll, the Hurricanes have shocked everyone with a strong start to ACC play, which has included wins over North Carolina and at Duke. Virginia will need to win at least one of its two games against the Canes this season and it obviously will be easier to do that within the friendly confines of John Paul Jones Arena on February 5th. 

vs. Duke (Feb. 23)

Photo courtesy of Rob Kinnan/USA TODAY Sports

Current record: 16-3, 6-2 (tied for 2nd in ACC standings)

As usual, Duke certainly has the talent to win the ACC and reach the Final Four in Coach K's final season. The Blue Devils are not perfect, but beating them has required outstanding performances from Ohio State, Miami, and Florida State, who all beat Duke by a combined eight points. As with Miami, Virginia will likely need a win in one of its two matchups with Duke in order to make the NCAA Tournament. UVA goes to Durham on February 7th and the two teams will meet again just 16 days later in Charlottesville. 

vs. Florida State (Feb. 26)

Photo courtesy of Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat/USA TODAY NETWORK

Current record: 13-6, 6-3 (tied for 5th in ACC standings)

Florida State had its six-game winning streak, which included two wins over Miami and another against Duke, snapped in a loss to Georgia Tech on Wednesday night. The Seminoles fell from tied for first to tied for fifth in the ACC with the loss, but they remain a formidable team that is likely headed to the NCAA Tournament. Leonard Hamilton's squad is deep and athletic as always and Virginia will need one of its better performances in order to slow down the Seminoles when they come to Charlottesville on February 26th. 

at Miami (Feb. 19)

Photo courtesy of Rob Kinnan/USA TODAY Sports

Current record: 15-5, 7-2 (1st in ACC standings)

Of course, a win at Miami will be a statement win for the Hoos, who have had a surplus of bad losses (Navy, JMU) and a shortage of good wins (Providence) this season. The Hurricanes are not unbeatable at home, as Florida State and UCF have managed to beat them in Coral Gables this season, but that will undoubtedly be a tall task for a Virginia team that has gone 3-4 in road games so far this season.

at Duke (Feb. 7)

Photo courtesy of Rob Kinnan/USA TODAY Sports

Current record: 16-3, 6-2 (tied for 2nd in ACC standings)

Virginia let a golden opportunity to beat a bad Duke team in Cameron slip away last year, as the then-No. 7 Cavaliers fell to the Blue Devils 66-65. UVA's victory at Duke in 2018 after Ty Jerome's clutch three-pointer remains Virginia's lone win in Durham since 1995. Nothing is impossible, but this is undeniably the least winnable game remaining on Virginia's schedule. 

Which of Virginia's last ten games do you think the Cavaliers will win? Share your thoughts at Cavaliers Now Forums

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