Virginia at Louisville Game Preview, Score Prediction

The Cavaliers look to complete the season sweep over the Cardinals on Saturday in Louisville

Coming off of an overtime victory over NC State, Virginia seeks to keep its winning ways going and complete a season sweep over the Cardinals on the road on Saturday in Louisville. 

Read on for a full preview of Virginia at Louisville, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a prediction for Saturday's matchup. 

Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (14-5, 5-3 ACC) at Louisville Cardinals (6-13, 1-7 ACC)

When: Saturday, January 27th at 12pm ET

Where: KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky

How to watch: The CW

How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

How to listen: SiriusXM 383, SXM App 973 | Virginia Sports Radio Network - click here for affiliates

All-time series: Virginia leads 23-5

Last meeting: Virginia defeated Louisville 77-53 on January 3rd, 2024 in Charlottesville

Game Notes

• Virginia holds a 23-5 advantage over Louisville in the all-time series, which dates back to 1924. 
• UVA has won the last eight games against Louisville and is looking to sweep the season series with the Cardinals for the fourth season in a row. 
• Virginia is 18-2 against Louisville since the Cardinals joined the ACC in 2014 and owns the same record against Louisville under Tony Bennett. 
• The Cavaliers are 10-4 against the Cardinals in Louisville and 7-2 at the KFC Yum! Center. 
• Virginia is 9-2 all-time at the KFC Yum! Center, including wins in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight en route to the 2019 National Championship.
• Virginia is tied for fourth in the ACC standings at 5-3 and Louisville is 15th at 1-7. 

Opponent Scouting Report: Louisville

2022-2023: 4-28, 2-18 ACC
2023-2024: 6-13, 1-7 ACC

Since suffering a 24-point loss at Virginia back on January 3rd, Louisville has gone 1-5, with the one win being a very surprising 80-71 victory on the road over a Miami team struggling to find its identity after making the Final Four last year. Still, the Cardinals have competed well with their opponents for the most part, with the exception of a 25-point loss at Wake Forest last Saturday. Louisville lost to Pittsburgh by 13, NC State by six, North Carolina by 16, and to Duke by 14 last Tuesday. Point being, the Cardinals are not exactly rolling over for their opponents. Despite the bleak outlook for their season and the program under Kenny Payne, whose days as Louisville's head coach are undoubtedly numbered, there are still talented players on this team who are giving quality effort. 

In the first meeting between these two teams, Virginia came away with a comfortable 77-53 win, overpowering Louisville with one of its finest offensive performances of the season. The Cardinals didn't even play a terrible game. Freshman Curtis Williams was a bright spot, knocking down four threes and scoring 14 points and sophomore Mike James had 11 points, but Louisville's other main contributors were limited to well beneath their typical scoring production and the Cards shot 6/25 from three. 

But Virginia had an excellent offensive game, turning the ball over only three times and recording 20 assists as a team. UVA made 10 threes on 38.5% shooting and shot 51.7% from the floor. Isaac McKneely was responsible for four of those threes and led all scorers with 18 points. Ryan Dunn had a double-double with 15 points and 10 rebounds and Reece Beekman had 11 points and eight assists. Taine Murray had his best statistical game of the season - including his most recent game against NC State on Wednesday - scoring 12 points on 5/6 shooting and knocking down two three-pointers. With so many quality performances on the offensive end, the outcome was a 24-point win for Virginia. The Cavaliers will look for a similar result on Saturday in Louisville. 

What to Watch For

Continued evolution for Virginia's lineup rotations?

We're almost halfway through ACC play, and yet UVA's lineup rotations are still changing from game to game, and the five players Tony Bennett is choosing to close out games has varied quite a bit as well. Last time out, Taine Murray supplanted Andrew Rohde and played almost 19 minutes, including almost all of the closing minutes of regulation and overtime. The return of Dante Harris and the emergence of Jordan Minor has had ripple effects on the rest of the roster, as an increase in minutes for these players (Murray, Harris, Minor) has to mean a decrease in minutes for others (Andrew Rohde, Jake Groves, Leon Bond III). At the very least, it seems Bennett and his staff are willing to go with the hot hand at the wing, but it will be interesting to see if one of Andrew Rohde, Taine Murray, or Dante Harris plays well enough in the next few weeks to seize the bulk of the minutes at that third guard position alongside Reece Beekman and Isaac McKneely. 

Sustaining momentum, banishing road woes.

It seemed quite unlikely just a couple weeks ago when Virginia lost back-to-back games by a combined 35 points, but the Cavaliers are beginning to play better basketball. UVA is now on a three-game winning streak consisting of a solid win over Virginia Tech, finally winning a game on the road at Georgia Tech, and then beating a good NC State team in overtime last Wednesday. There's still a ways to go and winning at Louisville isn't going to impress anyone, but it's imperative that the Cavaliers take care of business so as to keep the momentum going and further dispel their trend of road struggles this season. 

Home away from home?

This is a road game, yes, but the KFC Yum! Center has been very kind to the Cavaliers when they play there. Virginia is 9-2 in that building, which includes a 7-2 road record at Louisville and two wins at the 2019 NCAA Tournament - very fond memories for UVA fans indeed. Furthermore, there's not exactly a whole lot of fan support for Louisville's program right now, so Virginia should be able to handle a somewhat lessened road environment. 

Prediction

Virginia is gradually beginning to improve its NCAA Tournament resume. The Cavaliers are still on the outside looking in and a win over the Cardinals in Saturday's matchup, which will be a Quad 3 game, won't move the needle much for UVA's postseason prospects. But a loss might be too devastating to recover from. Virginia must take care of business and extend its winning streak to four. 

Score prediction: Virginia 67, Louisville 56

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