Virginia Basketball: 10-Game Report Card
The first ten games of the 2022-2023 Virginia men's basketball season are officially in the books. With the Cavaliers on another lengthy break for the holiday before their next game, it's time to take a moment to evaluate how things are going for UVA through the first third of the season.
Let's start with a snapshot of Virginia's resume so far:
Record
Overall: 8-2
ACC: 1-1
Home: 5-1
Away: 1-1
Neutral: 2-0
Streak: L2
Results
defeated NC Central (NET 182) 73-61
defeated Monmouth (NET 358) 89-42
defeated Baylor (NET 20) 86-79
defeated Illinois (NET 43) 70-61
defeated Maryland Eastern Shore (NET 278) 72-45
defeated Michigan (NET 80) 70-68
defeated JMU (NET 69) 55-50
lost to Houston (NET 2) 69-61
lost to Miami (NET 39) 66-64
NET Resume
NET Ranking: 19th
2-2 vs. Quad 1
2-0 vs. Quad 2
0-0 vs. Quad 3
4-0 vs. Quad 4
KenPom
KenPom ranking: 13th
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 113.5 (15th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 91.4 (21st)
Record vs. current AP Top 25: 2-2
The first ten games of the season have been a mixed bag for the Virginia Cavaliers, who had a great start, but haven't looked nearly as strong in the past four or five games. Here's the Good and the Not So Good of the Virginia men's basketball season so far:
The Good
8-2 record through ten games in a competitive schedule
Virginia played perhaps its toughest non-conference schedule of the Tony Bennett era and with one game left, the Cavaliers have gone through that out of conference slate with only one loss to a non-conference team. If you had told UVA fans that in the four games against Baylor, Illinois, Michigan, and Houston, Virginia would go 3-1, that would certainly have been an acceptable outcome.
After ten games last season, Virginia was 6-4 with bad losses to Navy and JMU, a one-point home loss to Iowa, and a 20-point blowout loss at Houston. This season, Virginia is 8-2 with those only two losses coming against a top-five Houston team and on the road against a ranked Miami squad. The losses are fresh and the Cavaliers haven't been playing very good basketball over the last several games, but the impressive wins against Baylor, Illinois, and Michigan show what this team can accomplish when play to their potential.
Virginia is still a much-improved three-point shooting team despite the recent slump
We'll get into UVA's three-point shooting drop-off later on in the "Not So Good" section. But overall, UVA is still shooting 36.5% from beyond he arc as a team even after the slump, a significant improvement over last season's 32.3% clip. There are simply more players on the roster this year that can hit an open shot from the perimeter, which means opposing teams are still forced to respect the Cavaliers around the arc. When Reece Beekman is healthy, he takes advantage of the spacing created by that shooting threat to attack the lane and create even more open shots. Virginia's three-point shooting and all-around offensive output should improve drastically as Beekman returns to 100%.
Speaking of Reece Beekman
A healthy Reece Beekman looked like an All-American candidate and a potential first round NBA draft pick through the first few games of the season before the injury trouble began. Obviously, his defense has been exceptional throughout his career and that has continued this season, but Beekman has more importantly begun to come into his own on the offensive end. Aggressively attacking the basket, shooting the three-ball at a career-high 42.9% clip, and setting up open shots for his teammates, Beekman took the reins of the UVA offense and was the key to Virginia's early offensive success.
That much became painfully clear when Beekman suffered an ankle injury and then a hamstring strain and Virginia's offense reverted to its stagnant, unproductive form that looks concerningly similar to the 2021-2022 Cavaliers. But even injured, Beekman has still had a significant impact on both ends of the floor. His on-ball defense has still been great, a testament to his IQ and positioning to stay in front of opposing ball-handlers despite the restrictions to his lateral movement. Offensively, he is shooting and scoring significantly less, but has still managed to make plays for his teammates, dishing out five assists against Houston and nine assists at Miami. Expect some of Virginia's offensive issues to be corrected as Beekman becomes healthy again.
The impact of Ben Vander Plas
Ben Vander Plas had his worst game of the season against Houston, going scoreless on 0/7 shooting, including an 0/6 mark from three-point range. How did he respond in the next game? His first 20-point performance in a Cavalier uniform, shooting 7/13 from the floor and 4/9 from beyond the arc at Miami. Vander Plas has been a great addition on both ends of the floor for Virginia. His ability to stretch the defense with his perimeter shot and his passing skills in the low post are two things the Cavaliers simply didn't have in their arsenal at the forward position last year. Vander Plas has been playing the five quite a bit, allowing Virginia to go small to match opposing teams, and for the most part has picked up the Pack Line Defense remarkably quickly.
Impressive freshmen
Isaac Traudt and Leon Bond III are redshirting this season, but Isaac McKneely and Ryan Dunn have contributed much more than anticipated at this early stage of their careers.
Dunn's athleticism is eye-popping and he has proven to be a reliable defensive option capable of guarding several positions. It was surprising that he didn't play much against Houston after playing very well in stretches against Florida State and JMU, but as he continues to get a feel for the game and improve in his defensive fundamentals, expect Ryan Dunn to continue to be a major factor for Virginia the rest of the season.
Isaac McKneely is still trying to find some consistency in his three-point shot at the college level. He has made 13/38 (34.2%) three-point attempts, but is just 5/22 in his last five games. McKneely has kept his confidence up and his form is excellent, so there's little doubt that he'll develop into a reliable shooter for UVA. But what has been really impressive is his defense and rebounding. McKneely was getting beat off the dribble quite a bit in the first few games of the season, but he has significantly improved since then, staying in front of opposing guards and fulfilling his role in the Pack Line Defense at an adequate level. He is an impressive rebounder, even against UVA's most athletic and physical competition, coming down with five rebounds in both of Virginia's ACC games.
The Not So Good
Virginia is trending down
UVA's two losses this season can hardly be considered catastrophic, as they came against two Top 25 teams by a combined 10 points. A home loss to a top five Houston team and a road loss to a ranked Miami team by two points are no reason to hit the panic button. But the bigger issue is that Virginia has been trending downward over the last several games. The Cavaliers looked brilliant in early blowout wins against outmatched competition and they looked simply phenomenal in the wins over Baylor and Illinois. When the Hoos went down by 11 at Michigan, they showed they could respond to adversity, coming from behind to win in Ann Arbor.
Since the Michigan game, Virginia hasn't exactly inspired confidence, especially on the offensive end. Virginia won by only five points against a Florida State team that was 1-8 at the time, then similarly beat James Madison by five points. Then came the losses to Houston and Miami, as the Cavaliers continued to play poorly against competition that wouldn't let them get away with it.
Virginia's three-point shooting fell off a cliff
Through the first three games of the season, UVA shot a blistering 51.6% from three, making 33 of 64 three-point attempts as a team. In the last seven games, Virginia is 45/139 or 32.4%, almost exactly the same percentage as last year's team. Were the first three games a fluke? Opposing defenses adjusted to the Cavaliers' early three-point success and guarded them more diligently on the perimeter, but UVA has still been getting several open looks from beyond the arc per game and is missing those shots at a concerning rate.
Reece Beekman's injury has hurt UVA's three-point shooting efforts on multiple fronts, as the Cavaliers are getting fewer open looks from the perimeter since Beekman isn't as aggressively getting into the paint, but he is also taking fewer three-point shots himself and he has been Virginia's best three-point shooter at 42.9%. It's not a good sign that an injury to one player has resulted in the total collapse of UVA's overall offensive production.
UVA's drop-off in three-point shooting has taken place across the roster. Armaan Franklin was 9/17 from three in the first three games, but just 8/26 since then. He knocked down two threes in three-straight games, but went 0/3 at Miami. Franklin is still shooting 39.5% overall and Kihei Clark has been right there with him at 38.2%, but is trending down as well. Ben Vander Plas bounced back with a good game against Miami, but was 2/18 in the previous six games after going 6/10 in the first three games of the season.
Defensive breakdowns are more concerning
Naturally, Tony Bennett is much more displeased with UVA's defensive lapses than he is with his team's missed shots on offense. The Cavaliers are still trying to figure out their optimal lineup, but they are particularly struggling against smaller teams that run versatile, athletic bigs. Those teams are willing to give up the size advantage to Virginia in favor of stretching the UVA defense with bigs that can shoot, pass, handle the ball, and run the floor. Kadin Shedrick has not been able to assert his size advantage in those matchups, not forcing the issue in the post on offense and not dominating the glass as he should as the tallest player on the floor. Meanwhile, Virginia's other tall center Francisco Caffaro has seen his minutes dwindle away, playing double-digit minutes in only two of UVA's games this season and not playing at all in three of the games. The change makes sense, as Caffaro doesn't give Virginia much offensively and certainly struggles to keep up with smaller and more athletic forwards.
Playing Ben Vander Plas at the five allows the Cavaliers to match up with opposing teams when they go small, but that has not prevented Virginia from having many more defensive breakdowns than Tony Bennett's accepted standard. UVA is giving up open threes and easy layups at an alarming rate and those defensive lapses came in critical moments in the losses to Miami and Houston. Those two teams shared the ball extremely well, punishing any mistakes committed by the Cavaliers. If that continues to be a trend, that could present an equally restrictive ceiling for Virginia as does the team's offensive struggles.
It's still early and there's plenty of time for this team to improve, as Virginia teams coached by Tony Bennett usually do, especially on the defensive end. It's critical that the UVA coaching staff figure out the optimal lineups to run in different matchups and it's essential that the Cavaliers get out of their shooting funk and begin to knock down open threes again. Virginia doesn't need to shoot 50% like at the start of the season, but if the Hoos can move the needle a little closer to 40% as a team and hit more of their open looks, then they can still compete with and defeat any team in the country. That much is clear from Virginia's collective performances against Baylor, Illinois, Michigan, Houston, and Miami. Even in the losses when the Cavaliers couldn't get anything to fall, they still had a chance to win.
At the top of Virginia's holiday wish list are the following three items: emerge from the three-point shooting slump, patch up the defensive breakdowns, and get Reece Beekman back to 100%. If things even marginally improve in any of these areas, the Cavaliers will be alright.
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