Virginia Basketball ACC Tournament Seeding Scenarios

Breaking down UVA's seeding scenarios for the 2024 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament entering the final game of the regular season

With one game left in the regular season, let's take a look at the possible seeding scenarios for the Virginia Cavaliers in next week's ACC Men's Basketball Tournament. 

At the beginning of the week, Virginia's range of possible seeds for the 2024 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament went as high as the No. 3 seed to as low as the No. 6 seed. With the Cavaliers not having a mid-week game, though, they sat in Charlottesville and watched as most of the league played their second-to-last regular season games on Monday and Tuesday. As a result of those games, and more specifically, Wake Forest's loss to Georgia Tech on Tuesday night, UVA has clinched a double-bye in the ACC Tournament, as the Cavaliers can finish no worse than the No. 4 seed. 

Here are the current ACC standings after Tuesday's games [Note: Miami and Boston College will play each other on Wednesday night, but that game has no bearing on UVA's seeding for the ACC Tournament]. 

ACC Men's Basketball Standings [as of March 6]

1. North Carolina (16-3)
2. Duke (15-4)
3. Virginia (12-7)
4. Clemson (11-8)
4. Pittsburgh (11-8)
6. Syracuse (11-9)
7. Wake Forest (10-9)
8. NC State (9-10)
8. Virginia Tech (9-10)
8. Florida State (9-10)
11. Georgia Tech (7-12)
11. Notre Dame (7-12)
13. Boston College (6-12)
13. Miami (6-12)
15. Louisville (3-16)

See the ACC Tournament seeding scenarios for each of the 15 teams in the ACC here: ACC Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding Scenarios

There are now only two teams currently below Virginia in the standings with a chance to finish above the Cavaliers in terms of seeding: Clemson and Pittsburgh. But, as we will explain shortly, there is no scenario in which both the Tigers and the Panthers finish above the Cavaliers, even if UVA loses to Georgia Tech on Saturday, which is why Virginia is guaranteed to finish in the top 4. 

So, will UVA finish as the No. 3 seed or the No. 4 seed? There are five possible scenarios for the Cavaliers - one really simple one in which Virginia beats Georgia Tech, remains at least a game above both Pittsburgh and Clemson no matter what, and clinches the No. 3 seed with no tiebreakers needed. Then there are four other scenarios that come into play if UVA loses to Georgia Tech and those are determined by how Pittsburgh and Clemson fare in their final games of the regular season. 

Here are the three games that matter to this conversation this weekend:
Clemson at Wake Forest (6pm on the ACC Network)
NC State at Pittsburgh (8pm on the CW)
Georgia Tech at Virginia (8pm on the ACC Network)

Let's break down the five possible scenarios for Virginia's seeding in the 2024 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament:

Scenario 1: Virginia beats Georgia Tech, Clemson and Pittsburgh's games become irrelevant. 

UVA finishes with a 13-7 conference record and sits alone in third place in the final standings, as neither the Tigers nor the Panthers can match that record. 

Outcome: Virginia clinches the No. 3 seed in the ACC Tournament with no tiebreakers required. 

Scenario 2: Virginia loses to Georgia Tech, Clemson beats Wake Forest, Pittsburgh beats NC State.

If UVA loses and both Clemson and Pittsburgh win their final games to join Virginia at 12-8, there would be a three-way tie for third place in the final ACC standings. The first tiebreaker in this situation is each team's combined record in games against the other teams in the tied group. Clemson defeated Pittsburgh twice and lost to Virginia, Pittsburgh beat Virginia and lost to Clemson twice, and Virginia beat Clemson and lost to Pittsburgh. Clemson gets the No. 3 seed in this scenario with a 2-1 record vs. the group, followed by Virginia with the No. 4 seed (1-1 vs. the group) and then Pittsburgh at No. 5 (1-2 vs. the group). 

Outcome: No. 3 seed Clemson, No. 4 seed Virginia, No. 5 seed Pittsburgh

Scenario 3: Virginia loses to Georgia Tech, Clemson beats Wake Forest, Pittsburgh loses to NC State. 

If both UVA and Pittsburgh lose their final games, but Clemson wins, Virginia and Clemson would finish tied for third in the final ACC standings at 12-8. Virginia has the tiebreaker over Clemson by virtue of its head-to-head victory over the Tigers, giving UVA the No. 3 seed in this scenario. 

Outcome: No. 3 seed Virginia, No. 4 seed Clemson

Scenario 4: Virginia loses to Georgia Tech, Clemson loses to Wake Forest, Pittsburgh beats NC State.

If both UVA and Clemson lose their final games, but Pittsburgh wins, Virginia and Pittsburgh would finish tied for third in the final ACC standings at 12-8. Pittsburgh has the tiebreaker over Virginia by virtue of its head-to-head victory over the Cavaliers, giving Pitt the No. 3 seed in this scenario. 

Outcome: No. 3 seed Pittsburgh, No. 4 seed Virginia

Scenario 5: Virginia loses to Georgia Tech, Clemson loses to Wake Forest, Pittsburgh loses to NC State.

If Virginia, Clemson, and Pittsburgh all lose their final games of the regular season, then UVA would finish alone in third place in the ACC standings at 12-8 and earn the No. 3 seed. Clemson and Pittsburgh would then face possible tiebreaker scenarios with each other and with Wake Forest and Syracuse at 11-9, jostling for seeds 4-7 in the ACC Tournament. 

Outcome: No. 3 seed Virginia

Of course, Virginia can avoid all of the complicated situations in scenarios 2-5 by simply defeating Georgia Tech and locking up the No. 3 seed in the ACC Tournament regardless of the outcomes of the other games this weekend. 

All of this will shake out as the college basketball regular season concludes on Saturday. Virginia wraps up the season against Georgia Tech on Saturday at John Paul Jones Arena. Tipoff is set for 8pm on the ACC Network. 

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