Virginia Basketball at Louisville Game Preview, Score Prediction

The Cavaliers play the first of two games against the last-place Cardinals on Wednesday night in Louisville

After picking up a pair of hard-fought victories against NC State and Duke last week, Virginia moves into what appears to be (at least on paper) a somewhat easier portion of the schedule with back-to-back games against two of the bottom three teams in the ACC standings, beginning with Wednesday night's road matchup at 3-22 Louisville. As the Cavaliers look to keep pace with Pittsburgh in the race for the ACC regular season title, it's pivotal that they not underestimate a Cardinals team that is hungry and desperate for wins. 

Read on for a full preview of Virginia at Louisville, including details on the game, an opponent scouting report, game notes, and a score prediction. 

Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (19-4, 11-3 ACC) at Louisville Cardinals (3-22, 1-13 ACC)

When: Wednesday, February 15th at 7pm ET

Where: KFC Yum! Arena in Louisville, Kentucky

How to watch: ESPNU

How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

How to listen: SiriusXM 132 or 193, SXM App 955 | Virginia Sports Radio Network - click here for affiliates

All-time series: Virginia leads 20-5

Last meeting: Virginia defeated Louisville 51-50 in the second round of the 2022 ACC Tournament. 

Opponent Scouting Report: Louisville

2022-2023: 3-22, 1-13 ACC
Notable results: at NC State 76-64 L, Syracuse 70-69 L, Wake Forest 80-72 L, at Clemson 83-70 L, at Boston College 75-65 L, Georgia Tech 68-58 W, Florida State 81-78 L, at Miami 93-85 L

To say that year 1 of the Kenny Payne era of Louisville basketball has been rough would be the understatement of the year. There were some extenuating circumstances with significant roster depletion last summer, but nobody expected things to be quite this bad. The Cardinals lost their first nine games, including three-straight one-point losses to start the season. Louisville comes into this game having just one victory in the last 14 games and the team's only three wins are against Western Kentucky, Florida A&M, and Georgia Tech. 

Still, it hasn't been all bad for the Cardinals even in their losses, many of which have been close and respectable. On Louisville's resume is a one-point loss to Syracuse, an eight-point loss to Wake Forest, a three-point loss to Florida State, and most recently, an eight-point loss at Miami on Saturday. A few bounces of the ball in the other direction and Louisville's season wouldn't be nearly the disaster it has turned out to be at this point. Those results, and especially the outcome of the Miami game over the weekend, should be more than enough to make sure the Cavaliers respect their opponent. 

The one bright spot for Louisville this season has been 6'3" senior guard El Ellis, who has essentially carried the Louisville offense on his back the entire year. Ellis is the only player averaging in double figures for the Cardinals, scoring 17.4 points per game, good for 3rd in the ACC. He is also the leading assist man for the Cards at 4.8 assists per contest, but he also averages 4.0 turnovers per game. Ellis is a 31.7% three-point shooter on a high volume of attempts. He takes nearly six threes per game and attempts 14.3 shots per game overall, almost double that of Louisville's next-leading shot-taker. 

Joining Ellis in the back court is 6'5" freshman guard Mike James, averaging 9.3 points per game. James is a decent three-point shooter at 37.2% from beyond the arc on a little more than three attempts per game. Louisville is very thin at the guard position, with no other guard on the roster averaging more than two points per game other than El Ellis and Mike James. 

The front court, on the other hand, is a logjam. 6'9" junior forward Jae'Lyn Withers is the team's second-leading scorer and rebounder at 9.6 points and 5.0 rebounds per game. Withers is also Louisville's best three-point shooter at 46.3% on more than three attempts per game. He has scored in double figures in five of the last six games, including an 18-point showing at Miami on Saturday. Assuming El Ellis maintains his scoring output, the performance of Jae'Lyn Withers will be the key for Louisville having a chance against Virginia on Wednesday. 

Sydney Curry, a 6'8" senior forward, starts up front and averages 5.5 points and 4.8 rebounds per game while shooting 54.5% from the floor. Louisville has been without one of its regular front-court starters for the last eight games as Brandon Huntley-Hatfield has been out since January 11th with a foot injury. The 6'10", 250-pound Tennessee transfer started the first 17 games of the season and was the teams' leading rebounder at 6.0 boards per game before his injury. Huntley-Hatfield also averages 7.5 points per game. He has been dressed for the last couple of games, but has yet to make his return from injury. In his place, 6'8" junior forward JJ Traynor has slid into the starting lineup, averaging 5.6 points on 44.7% shooting from the floor to go along with 3.2 rebounds per game. 

Louisville brings in a couple of freshmen forwards off the bench. 6'8" forward Kamari Lands is averaging 6.2 points per game and is having himself a nice month of February so far, scoring in double figures in three of his last four outings. On January 20th, Louisville made a surprising roster move, adding Emmanuel Okorafor to the active roster in the middle of the season. A 6'9", 220-pound Nigerian forward out of the NBA Academy Africa, Okorafor was immediately eligible to play and has given the Cardinals yet another tall and long player in their crowded front court. The freshman Okorafor has appeared in five games so far and has had a limited impact, averaging 4.4 points and 4.2 rebounds per game. 

The stats and metrics aren't pretty for Louisville, ranking as the bottom team in the ACC in both scoring offense (64.0 points per game) and scoring defense (76.1 points per game allowed). Shooting and rebounding statistics are reflective of the team's performance as well, as the Cardinals rank towards the bottom of the conference in several key categories. Most notably, Louisville turns the ball over 15.8 times per game. No other team in the ACC averages more than 13 turnovers per game. 

Game Notes

• Virginia holds a 20-5 advantage in the all-time series with Louisville dating back to 1923-1924. 
• UVA has won five-straight games against Louisville and has won 14 of the last 15 games against Louisville.
• Virginia is 15-2 against Louisville since the Cardinals joined the ACC in 2014. 
• The Cavaliers are 9-4 against the Cardinals in games played in Louisville. 
• UVA is 8-2 all-time at the KFC Yum! Center, including a 6-2 record against Louisville in the building and then two wins in the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Virginia defeated Oregon 53-49 in the Sweet Sixteen and Purdue 80-75 in overtime in the Elite Eight. 
• Virginia is 7-3 this season in games played away from Charlottesville and 5-3 in true road games. 
• Virginia is tied for first place in the ACC with an 11-3 conference record and Louisville is 15th at 1-13. 

Prediction

Virginia has utterly dominated Louisville since the Cardinals joined the ACC. Absent a horrendous performance from the Cavaliers combined with an above-average showing from the Cardinals, that trend should continue on Wednesday night in Louisville. 

Score prediction: Virginia 75, Louisville 58

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