Virginia Basketball Bracketology Update: Hoos Back to the Bubble

Taking a look at where things stand for the Cavaliers in the latest NCAA Tournament projections after losing three of their last four games

It's back to the bubble for the Virginia Cavaliers. After losing three of the last four games and failing to reach 50 points in the last three, the Hoos find themselves with work to do to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament and have just three games left in the regular season and whatever they can do in the ACC Tournament to accomplish that task. 

Virginia is now among the Last Four In according to the latest Bracketology update by ESPN's Joe Lunardi on Tuesday morning. Lunardi has UVA as the third to last team in the field of 68, just ahead of Providence and Gonzaga in front of the cut line and behind Seton Hall in the Last Four In. Texas, Wake Forest, Nevada and New Mexico have the last four byes on the line above and Texas A&M, Villanova, Utah, and Colorado are on the outside looking in as the First Four Out. Lunardi has Virginia as a No. 11 seed and playing in a Play-In game against Seton Hall. He also has UVA listed as the No. 42 overall team in the tournament. 

All of the data points on Bracket Matrix, a website that compiles over 100 bracket projections into a singular spreadsheet, are essentially in agreement with Lunardi on UVA's current status. Virginia is included in the NCAA Tournament in 105 of the 107 bracket projections with an average seed of 10.33. So, the consensus is that the Cavaliers are in the NCAA Tournament right now, but just barely. 

Here's Virginia's current NCAA Tournament resume: 
NET ranking: No. 48
20-8 overall record, 14-2 at home, 4-5 on the road
3-4 vs. Quad 1, 3-3 vs. Quad 2, 8-1 vs. Quad 3, 6-0 vs. Quad 4

Here's Virginia's remaining regular season schedule:
at Boston College on Wednesday, 2/28 (NET 88, Quad 2)
at Duke on Saturday, 3/2 (NET 10, Quad 1)
vs. Georgia Tech on Saturday, 3/9 (NET 139, Quad 3)

Two of Virginia's final three games - at Boston College and at home against Georgia Tech - won't do much to move the needle, but could be disastrous should UVA lose. The game at Duke next Saturday serves as an opportunity for the Cavaliers to essentially secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament if they win, while not being too damaging if they lose on the road to a team currently 10th in the NET rankings. Before that, Virginia must survive a tough trip to Boston College, who is 10-4 in home games this season, on Wednesday at 9pm in Chestnut Hill. 

Should the Cavaliers go 2-1 to close the regular season with a loss at Duke, they should be in decent position regarding the NCAA Tournament, with a solid showing in the ACC Tournament needed to avoid sweating it out on Selection Sunday. 

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