Virginia Basketball Bracketology Update: Hoos Move in Off the Bubble

UVA's seven-game winning streak has the Cavaliers safely in the NCAA Tournament in the latest March Madness Bracketology projections

Virginia's rough stretch of blowout losses on the road in December and January, combined with the widespread disrespect of the Atlantic Coast Conference among the national media, had the Cavaliers firmly on the outside looking in for a bid to the NCAA Tournament. So even after UVA rattled off five straight wins, ESPN's Joe Lunardi, as well as many other Bracketologists, had the Cavaliers still on the wrong side of the Bubble at the end of January. Lunardi specifically had Virginia in the "Next Four Out" at No. 75 overall (68 teams make the tournament) at the end of January. 

Then came Virginia's big 66-65 win at Clemson on Saturday, UVA's second Quad 1 victory of the season. Lunardi moved the Cavaliers up to No. 70 overall and the second team listed in his "First Four Out", right on the edge of the cut line. To many UVA fans and other followers of ACC basketball, that seemed to be not enough of a change for a team that had won six-straight games and just validated the improvements made over that stretch with a huge victory over an NCAA Tournament team on the road. 

With a little urging (bullying) from Twitter, Lunardi updated his bracket again on Monday afternoon, putting Virginia on the inside of the cutoff as the second team listed in his "Last Four In" as well as the No. 43 overall team in the field, better reflecting UVA's NET ranking of No. 42. 

And then finally, the momentum could no longer be denied after Virginia's emphatic 60-38 victory over Miami on Monday night on national television. At last, that win skyrocketed the Cavaliers up in the NET rankings a full 10 spots to No. 32. It's simply implausible for the No. 32-ranked team in the NET to be considered a Bubble team and that much was confirmed when Lunardi updated his projections once again on Tuesday. In Lunardi's latest Bracketology, Virginia is firmly off the Bubble and safely in the NCAA Tournament as a No. 9 seed and the No. 35 overall team in the field. See a full breakdown of Lunardi's Bracketology below:

pic.twitter.com/EfeqPev8dt

— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 6, 2024

Other bracket projections agree that Virginia is safely in the NCAA Tournament at this point, with Mike DeCourcy of Fox Sports listing Virginia as a No. 10 seed and Jerry Palm of CBS Sports putting UVA as a No. 11 seed, but still safely in off the Bubble. 

Of course, there is still plenty of time left in the regular season for Virginia to both improve or squander its position. Many challenging opponents and marquee games remain in the final month of the schedule, opportunities for the Cavaliers to continue to rise through the seed lines or fall back towards the Bubble. But what we know is that if the season ended right now, Virginia would be firmly an NCAA Tournament team, which is a significant improvement over the team's postseason status just a week or two ago, and that's worth recognizing. 

Virginia's next chance to improve its NCAA Tournament resume will come on Saturday night, when the Cavaliers head down to Tallahassee to take on Florida State on 8pm on The CW. 

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