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Virginia Basketball Bracketology Update: Too Close to Call After ACCT Loss

See where things stand for the Cavaliers in the latest NCAA Tournament projections one day before Selection Sunday

Matt Newton

Virginia Basketball Bracketology Update: Too Close to Call After ACCT Loss
Virginia Basketball Bracketology Update: Too Close to Call After ACCT Loss /
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Now, all Virginia can do is wait. After suffering an excruciating 73-65 overtime loss to NC State in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament on Friday night, the Cavaliers have nothing to do but wait and hope that they've done enough to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, which will be revealed on Sunday evening. 

Read our newest story breaking down Virginia's NCAA Tournament odds on Selection Sunday here: Will Virginia Make the NCAA Tournament? Selection Sunday Bracketology Update

ESPN's Joe Lunardi has gone back and forth a bit on Virginia in the hours since the NC State loss. He first dropped the Cavaliers to the precipitous spot of Last Team In, but then swapped them with New Mexico after the Lobos beat Colorado State in the semifinals of the Mountain West Tournament late on Friday night, dropping UVA to the First Team Out. Lunardi then changed tune again on Saturday morning, moving Virginia back into his projected field as the second to last team in. 

In his latest ESPN Bracketology update on Saturday at 10:30am, Lunardi has Oklahoma, St. John's, Virginia, and New Mexico as the Last Four In with Seton Hall, Indiana State, Pittsburgh, and Providence as the First Four Out. He says it'll come down to the six-team group of St. John's, Virginia, New Mexico, Seton Hall, Indiana State, and Pitt fighting for the last three spots in the field. Of that group, only New Mexico still has a game to play before Selection Sunday, battling San Diego State for the Mountain West title on Saturday night. 

Taking a larger sample size of Bracketologists, of the 114 brackets listed on Bracket Matrix, a website that compiles several bracket projections into a single spreadsheet, Virginia is included in 95 of those predicted fields with an average seed of 10.73. So, the Cavaliers are in, but the majority of Bracketologists have them closer to that No. 11 seed line and possibly headed to the First Four play-in games in Dayton. Of course, it's impossible to know whether the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee sees things the same way. 

Let's take an updated look at Virginia's NCAA Tournament resume, with the note that UVA's NET ranking fell from No. 50 to No. 55 after the loss to NC State. 

Virginia's current NCAA Tournament resume:
NET ranking: No. 55
23-10 overall record, 15-2 at home, 5-6 on the road, 3-2 neutral
2-6 in Quad 1, 8-4 in Quad 2, 7-0 in Quad 3, 6-0 in Quad 4

Virginia will learn its postseason fate on Sunday, as the the 2024 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament bracket will be revealed on Sunday at 6pm on CBS. 

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Matt Newton
MATT NEWTON

Matt launched Virginia Cavaliers On SI in August of 2021 and has since served as the site's publisher and managing editor, covering all 23 NCAA Division I sports teams at the University of Virginia. He is from Downingtown, Pennsylvania and graduated from UVA in May of 2021.

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