Cavaliers Now

Virginia Basketball Bracketology Update: UVA Among "Last Four In"

Taking a look at where things stand for the Cavaliers in the latest NCAA Tournament projections with one game left in the regular season

Matt Newton

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The calendar has flipped to March and postseason play is right around the corner, which means it's no longer quite as foolish of an exercise to try and project what the NCAA Tournament will look like when the bracket is revealed on March 17th. Virginia has lost three of its last four games and four of its last six and is clinging to one of the last spots in the NCAA Tournament in several of the updated Bracketology projections.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Virginia as the second to last team in the field of 68 in his latest Bracketology. Lunardi has Seton Hall, New Mexico, Virginia, and Wake Forest as his "Last Four In" and has UVA and Seton Hall facing each other in one of the play-in games for the No. 11 seed. According to Lunardi, the teams just behind the Cavaliers on the outside looking in on the Bubble are St. John's, Providence, Iowa, Utah, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Drake, and Memphis. 

Mike DeCourcy of Fox Sports also has Virginia in his Last Four In, while Jerry Palm of CBS Sports has UVA a little safer as a No. 10 seed in his latest NCAA Tournament projection. 

Of the 104 brackets currently listed on Bracket Matrix, a website that compiles bracket projections into a singular spreadsheet, Virginia is included in 90 of those predicted fields with an average seed of 10.50, squarely between the No. 10 and No. 11 seed lines.  

Here's Virginia's current NCAA Tournament resume:
NET ranking: No. 50
21-9 overall record, 14-2 at home, 5-6 on the road
2-6 vs. Quad 1, 6-3 vs. Quad 2, 7-0 vs. Quad 3, 6-0 vs. Quad 4

So, what does Virginia need to do to maintain its grip on an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament? UVA wraps up the regular season at home against Georgia Tech (NET 133) on March 9th. That's a Quad 3 game, so it's not going to help move the needle for UVA a whole lot, but it's a must-win game in order for Virginia to keep its current positioning. A loss to the Yellow Jackets would be disastrous and would do possibly irreparable damage to UVA's resume.

If Virginia gets past Georgia Tech, clinching the No. 3 seed and earning a double-bye to the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament, UVA would likely face the No. 6 seed, which should probably be a team from the group of Syracuse, Clemson, Pittsburgh, or Wake Forest. Clemson (NET 25), Pitt (NET 44), and Wake (NET 31) are all in the top 50 of the NET rankings right now and if they stay there, they would be Quad 1 opponents on a neutral floor for Virginia at the ACC Tournament. Syracuse (NET 83) would be Quad 2. 

With wins against Georgia Tech on Saturday and against whichever opponent Virginia faces in the ACC quarterfinals, UVA would be safely in the NCAA Tournament. The Cavaliers would still have a good chance of making the tournament even with a loss in that first ACC Tournament game, but they would be sweating it out on Selection Sunday along with the rest of the Bubble hopefuls. 

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Matt Newton
MATT NEWTON

Matt launched Virginia Cavaliers On SI in August of 2021 and has since served as the site's publisher and managing editor, covering all 23 NCAA Division I sports teams at the University of Virginia. He is from Downingtown, Pennsylvania and graduated from UVA in May of 2021.

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