Virginia Basketball vs. North Carolina Game Preview, Score Prediction

UVA looks to avenge two lopsided losses to UNC from last season

Virginia and North Carolina are set to renew a storied ACC rivalry as the Tar Heels visit the Cavaliers on Tuesday night at John Paul Jones Arena. After beginning the season as the No. 1-ranked team in the country, UNC stumbled through a four-game losing streak, but have since recovered and come into this matchup having won six of the last seven games. Meanwhile, No. 13 Virginia looks to build off of a 73-66 win over Syracuse on Saturday by taking down a North Carolina team that had UVA's number last season. Both the Hoos and the Heels bring in a 3-2 conference record and both teams are hoping to use this game to propel themselves towards the top of the ACC standings. 

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. North Carolina, including details on the game, an opponent scouting report, game notes, and a score prediction. 

Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (11-3, 3-2 ACC) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (11-5, 3-2 ACC)

When: Tuesday, January 10th at 9pm ET

Where: John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia

How to watch: ESPN

How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

How to listen: SiriusXM 83, SXM App 83 | Virginia Sports Radio Network - click here for affiliates

All-time series: North Carolina leads 133-60

Last meeting: UNC defeated UVA 63-43 in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament on March 10th, 2022

Opponent Scouting Report: North Carolina

2022-2023: 11-5, 3-2 ACC
Notable results: Iowa State 70-65 L, Alabama 103-101 L (4OT), at Indiana 77-65 L, at Virginia Tech 80-72 L, Georgia Tech 75-59 W, Ohio State 89-84 W (OT), Michigan 80-76 W, at Pittsburgh 76-74 L, Wake Forest 88-79 W, Notre Dame 81-64 W

To say that expectations for this North Carolina men's basketball season were sky high would actually be an understatement. With the Tar Heels returning four out of five starters from a team that went to the Final Four and lost in the national title game by three points, UNC was the landslide pick as both the preseason favorite to win the ACC and the AP No. 1-ranked team in the country. 

The Heels won their first five games of the season, but didn't inspire confidence as they survived early close-calls against UNCW, Charleston, Gardner-Webb, and Portland. A five-point loss to Iowa State on November 25th sent UNC into a tailspin, losing four-straight games, including a four-overtime thriller with Alabama, a 12-point loss at Indiana in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, and a 80-72 defeat at Virginia Tech in the ACC opener. 

Since then, however, the Tar Heels seem to have regained their composure, winning six of their last seven games, including back-to-back close neutral-floor victories against Michigan and Ohio State. Like Virginia, North Carolina lost a close contest at Pittsburgh, but has since bounced back with a pair of quality wins over Wake Forest and Notre Dame. It appears that the experienced and talented Tar Heels are beginning to play better basketball without the burden of a high ranking and weighty expectations. 

Now, the Heels face a huge test on the road against the No. 13-ranked Cavaliers, but it's a Virginia team that looks remarkably similar in terms of personnel to the one that UNC swept last season by a combined margin of 36 points. North Carolina took down Virginia 74-58 in Chapel Hill to snap UVA's seven-game winning streak in the series and then the Heels routed the Cavaliers 63-43 in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament, officially putting an end to UVA's NCAA Tournament hopes. This will be as much of a test for Virginia as it is for North Carolina, as the Cavaliers will have to prove how much they have improved since last season against a UNC team that had little trouble running them off the floor last year. 

Leading North Carolina once again is dominant center Armando Bacot, who appears well on his way to winning ACC Player of the Year, as he currently leads the entire conference in both scoring (18.8 ppg) and rebounding (11.2 rpg). Bacot had a legendary run last spring, recording a double-double in each of UNC's six NCAA Tournament games. The 6'11" senior and Richmond native has found another gear this season, which is a scary sight for the Cavaliers, who simply had no answer for him last season - Bacot had a staggering 29 points and 22 rebounds in UNC's win over UVA in Chapel Hill. Kadin Shedrick and Francisco Caffaro will have to be physical and smart to avoid getting into foul trouble, but the whole of UVA's team defense will have to work together in order to keep Bacot off the glass and out of the paint. 

UNC's backcourt duo of Caleb Love and RJ Davis are both averaging better than 16 points per game and will certainly give Reece Beekman and Kihei Clark plenty to handle on the offensive end of the floor. Love can be streaky at times, but is always capable of creating his own shot, an essential skill against a UVA defense that frequently forces opposing offenses to operate late in the shot clock. 

6'9" wing Leaky Black is the team's best defender. UNC had a lot of success having Black guard Kihei Clark, who had two of his worst games against the Tar Heels last season. Clark has been playing perhaps the best basketball of his career so far this season and will have to continue to do so whether he has Black or RJ Davis guarding him on defense. 

Northwestern transfer Pete Nance is UNC's replacement for Brady Manek in the front court. Nance has been solid so far, averaging 10.9 points and 6.1 rebounds per game and knocking down three-pointers at just a high enough rate (34.0%) to stretch the floor. However, Nance missed UNC's last game with a back injury and it's unclear if he will play at Virginia on Tuesday night. 

If Nance is out, that could mean more minutes for former Virginia forward Justin McKoy, but the Tar Heels have also experienced success running lineups with four guards to go along with Bacot, as freshman point guard Seth Trimble and junior wing Puff Johnson have given the Heels solid contributions off the bench. It will certainly be interesting to see how Tony Bennett and the UVA coaching staff manages their own lineups to counter North Carolina in this matchup.

Game Notes

• North Carolina is 133-60 against Virginia in the all-time series that dates back to the 1910-1911 season and UNC comes in with a two-game winning streak vs. UVA.
• Virginia had won each of the previous seven games against North Carolina before last season.
• UVA has a seven-game winning streak against UNC in games played in Charlottesville and the Cavaliers are 7-4 against the Tar Heels at John Paul Jones Arena. 
• Tony Bennett is 12-10 all-time as a head coach against North Carolina.
• Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke are tied for 4th place in the ACC standings, each with a 3-2 conference record.

Prediction

Tony Bennett has said that every season is a race to improve. North Carolina has improved significantly over the last several weeks since that four-game losing streak, but the Tar Heels have yet to fully rediscover the magic from their run to the national title game last season. Similarly, the Cavaliers are still trying to regain the momentum from their early-season success that earned them the No. 2 ranking in the country. 

With both of these teams returning much of the same personnel from last season, I expect Virginia to come into this game with a bit of an extra edge as the Hoos attempt to avenge last year's losses to the Tar Heels. More importantly, UVA can lean on a distinct home court advantage. No ACC team has had a better home record against conference opponents over the last 11 seasons than Virginia (80-13) and UVA brings a seven-game home winning streak against UNC into this matchup. In a showdown that is likely to come down to the wire, the home court advantage will be a key factor that helps the Cavaliers pull out the close victory.  

Score prediction: North Carolina 75, Virginia 77

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