Virginia Hopeful for Resurgence Coming Out of "Important Week"

With a full week to dissect their most recent disastrous loss and to prepare for their next road test, the Cavaliers are hoping for a reset

This could be a make-or-break week for the Virginia men's basketball team. 

One month ago, the Cavaliers entered the exam break riding high with an 8-1 record and on a four-game winning streak that included impressive wins over then-No. 14 Texas A&M and Syracuse in the ACC opener. UVA won those four games by a combined 66 points and appeared to be well on its way to another successful regular season. 

But Virginia has hardly looked like the same team since then. 

UVA has alternated wins and losses in the six games since the exam break, winning each of its home games and getting embarrassed every time the team goes on the road. Those data points have given the impression that the crux of Virginia's issues boils down to an inability to play well on the road. And while it's true that right now UVA's most poor performances, and all of their losses, have come away from the friendly confines of John Paul Jones Arena, the problems likely go much deeper than that as it has been more than a month since the last time Virginia played good basketball against a worthy opponent. 

Taking a look first at the three wins UVA has picked up in the last month: a two-point escape against a Northeastern team currently ranked No. 227 in the NET rankings, which immediately proceeded the Cavaliers getting blown out at Memphis, and then a pair comfortable wins over two more of college basketball's bottom-feeders in one-win Morgan State (No. 354 in the NET) and the ACC's worst team Louisville (NET No. 262). Virginia's good performances in those games are doubly watered down by the strength of competition (or lack thereof) and the fact that the Cavaliers followed up each of those wins with more disastrous defeats, losing by 22 at Notre Dame (NET No. 173) and by 16 at NC State (NET. No. 66). 

And it's not just that the Cavaliers aren't playing well in these games, these are uncompetitive, blowout losses in which they are not even close to being in it for most of the second half. Virginia has lost those four games by an average of 21.3 points per game. The lopsided nature of these defeats is making it so that even the most optimistic followers of UVA basketball are struggling to glean positive takeaways. 

Virginia has the No. 2-ranked scoring defense in the country, allowing 57.1 points per game. But in the four losses this season, the Cavaliers are giving up 73.5 points. Virginia shoots 35.9% from three as a team this season, but is shooting 25.4% from three in those losses. UVA's opponents are shooting less than 30% from three for the season, but Wisconsin, Memphis, Notre Dame, and NC State combined to shoot 41.3% from beyond the arc against Virginia. 

UVA has had a history under Tony Bennett of not being able to get back into games when things go south, but this team in particular seems to let things unravel ridiculously quickly. Whether that's a lack of leadership or spirit, or the cyclical nature of Virginia's flaws - an inability to generate and hit open shots leading to uncharacteristic defensive breakdowns and vice versa - the outcome is that this team is playing far from its best basketball and the Cavaliers are quickly running out of time to figure it out. 

So while the narrative right now is that Virginia simply cannot bring its A-game on the road, it actually seems to be the case that the Cavaliers have been more or less playing below-average basketball for a month and have come out of that stretch with a 3-3 record thanks to not playing tough competition. And with the most difficult parts of UVA's schedule against the best of the ACC awaiting on the horizon, it then seems more likely that the Cavaliers start losing games at home, where they are currently 9-0 this season, than it is that they start playing well on the road, especially given the challenges still remaining on the schedule. 

But the fact that the biggest challenges are still to come also allows for some sense of hope for a turnaround. There's still a chance for Virginia to reverse this trend. We're only just now reaching the midway point of the season and there are plenty of opportunities for the Cavaliers to sort themselves out before the biggest and most important games later in the season. It was a 10-day gap that started this trend of bad basketball and now UVA has a similar chance to reset with a full week between games, but this is the last time until the final week of the regular season that the Cavaliers won't have a mid-week game. 

"This is an important week for us because we'll have four practices before we play on Saturday," Tony Bennett said on Monday.  

Saturday's game at Wake Forest (2pm on ESPN2) will be a significant litmus test for UVA's ability and likelihood of getting this ship pointed in the right direction. If the Cavaliers come out with yet another flat-footed performance and get blown off the floor once again, it'll be difficult to imagine them getting their act together at all this season, let alone in time to win enough games to rehabilitate their shattered NCAA Tournament resume. 

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