Virginia vs. NC State Game Preview, Score Prediction

Coming off their first road win of the season, the Cavaliers look to extend their winning streak and avenge an earlier loss to the Wolfpack

Coming off its first road win of the season and now riding a two-game winning streak, Virginia returns home for a key rematch, looking to avenge its loss to NC State just 18 days after the first meeting went to the Wolfpack. 

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. NC State, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a prediction for Wednesday night's matchup. 

Read our live blog for the game here: Virginia vs. NC State Live Updates | NCAA Men's Basketball

Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (13-5, 4-3 ACC) vs. NC State Wolfpack (13-5, 5-2 ACC)

When: Wednesday, January 24th at 7pm ET

Where: John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia

How to watch: ACC Network

How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

How to listen: SiriusXM 371, SXM App XMACC | Virginia Sports Radio Network - click here for affiliates

All-time series: NC State leads 86-69

Last meeting: NC State defeated Virginia 76-60 on January 6th, 2024 in Raleigh.

Game Notes

• NC State owns an 86-69 advantage over Virginia in the all-time series, which dates back to 1913. 
• NC State defeated Virginia 76-60 on January 6th in Raleigh and has won three of the last five games in the series. 
• Virginia is 42-25 against NC State in Charlottesville and 9-2 against the Wolfpack at John Paul Jones Arena. 
• UVA is 15-6 against NC State under Tony Bennett. 
• Virginia has the longest active home winning streak in men's college basketball at 20-straight home wins. 
• NC State is tied for second place in the ACC and Virginia is tied for sixth. 

Opponent Scouting Report: NC State

2022-2023: 23-11, 12-8 ACC, lost in NCAA Tournament 1st round
2023-2024: 13-5, 5-2 ACC

Since we already previewed NC State once this season, we're going to spend less time covering their overall season and personnel and more time dissecting what happened when they two teams met just a few weeks ago in Raleigh. 

But first, here's a brief overview of NC State so far this season. Of the Wolfpack's five losses, three came to teams ranked in the top six of the NET rankings (Tennessee, BYU, and North Carolina) and the other two came to teams in the top 70 of the NET (Virginia Tech and Ole Miss). Since handing Virginia a 76-60 loss on January 6th in Raleigh, NC State suffered a 77-54 loss to North Carolina, picked up close wins over Louisville and Wake Forest, and then suffered a six-point home loss to Virginia Tech last Saturday. And so, the Wolfpack enter this game licking their wounds, but still holding onto second place in the ACC standings. 

The first meeting between Virginia and NC State was highly-competitive in the first half, with UVA holding a four-point lead until a wild halfcourt three from Dennis Parker Jr. just barely beat the shot clock and ignited the Wolfpack, who proceeded to end the first half on a huge run and never looked back. NC State built a lead as large as 21 points in the second half and cruised to a 16-point win. 

The 6'6" freshman guard and Richmond native Parker had 15 points and knocked down three three-pointers. 6'4" junior Jayden Taylor also had 15 points and 6'1" senior guard DJ Horne had 14 points and three assists. NC State hit 10 threes as a team, with seven of those triples coming from those three guards. 

The 6'9", 275-pound DJ Burns was limited to just six points, but had a significant impact on the game, as he routinely handled Virginia's undersized double teams with ease, notching four assists and a few more hockey assists, as the Wolfpack profited from the attention UVA's defense was directing towards Burns, who was +15 in 22 minutes of action. Fellow forward Ben Middlebrooks also had a solid game with eight points on 4/4 shooting and seven rebounds. Kansas transfer MJ Rice had seven points and former Cavalier Casey Morsell had five points. 

Virginia let that game get out of hand in the second half, something that happened in every road game the Cavaliers played this season until they finally showed some fight on Saturday in Atlanta, erasing an 11-point deficit to knock off Georgia Tech. But at NC State, UVA was essentially uncompetitive for most of the second half. Isaac McKneely had 18 points and made four threes in that game, but many of those points came when the Cavaliers had already fallen behind by a wide margin. Similarly, Reece Beekman (12 points, 10 assists) and Ryan Dunn (16 points, 7 rebounds) had decent games statistically, but the team was severely outplayed and simply gave up when the deficit reached double digits in the second half. 

The only true bright spot of the game was Jordan Minor, who played well in his seven minutes of garbage time, making both his field goals and both of his free throws and collecting three rebounds. Tony Bennett has identified that performance as the turning point for Minor, who then practiced well and earned his first start of the season at Wake Forest the following week. Minor has been the missing piece for Virginia, playing an extremely valuable role in UVA's two wins over Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech last week. He could make a major difference in the rematch with NC State. 

What to Watch For

Is Jordan Minor the key?

Although DJ Burns had only six points against Virginia in the first meeting, he was more than a handful for the Cavaliers, who did not have much success doubling him with various combinations of Blake Buchanan, Jake Groves, and Ryan Dunn. But with Jordan Minor's strength and physicality and his emergence as an impact player since entering the starting lineup, there's a chance that he could handle that assignment. Minor won't need to shut Burns down one-on-one every time, but Virginia's timely double-teams should be more effective with Minor on the floor. And, the Cavaliers are hoping at least, that should have ripple effects on the effectiveness of UVA's team defense in containing NC State's guards, which was the main culprit in the lopsided loss in Raleigh.

Can McKneely and Beekman stay hot?

Isaac McKneely and Reece Beekman both had excellent games at Georgia Tech on Saturday, with McKneely knocking down six threes and scoring 20 points and Beekman posting a 19-point, 11-assist double-double. It's wishful thinking for the Cavaliers to believe that NC State's host of guards - DJ Horne, Jayden Taylor, Casey Morsell, Dennis Parker, MJ Rice - will all have off days on Wednesday night. So, in addition to doing a better job limiting the production of those talented guards, Virginia will also need consistent scoring production from McKneely and Beekman - and ideally Andrew Rohde and Dante Harris - in order to come away with a win. 

Protect home court.

There's nothing Virginia can do to erase its bad road losses from its resume, which includes a 16-point loss at NC State less than three weeks ago. But Wednesday night offers UVA an opportunity to avenge that loss and extend its nation-leading 20-game home winning streak. The Cavaliers shoot better at home and play better defense at home. Expect a much better performance from them against the Wolfpack this time around. 

Prediction

NC State played very well in its win over Virginia earlier this much and the Wolfpack are a good team. But that outcome had just as much to do with UVA's terrible habit of simply quitting on road games once the going got tough. Between this game being played in front of a UVA crowd at John Paul Jones Arena and the significant personnel changes that have occurred for the Cavaliers in the last couple of weeks - namely, the emergence of Jordan Minor and the return of Dante Harris - there's plenty of reason to believe that the rematch will look turn out better for Virginia, though it will likely be a very close game. 

Score prediction: Virginia 67, NC State 65

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