ACC Tournament or Bust for Virginia After Brutal Last-Second Loss to Florida State

The Cavaliers will have to win the ACC Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament

For the second time this month, a Virginia basketball game ended on a last-second shot. 

The first, a Reece Beekman three-pointer that lifted the Cavaliers over No. 7 Duke in Cameron on February 7th, gave new life to the UVA basketball season and provided a reasonable path the Hoos could take towards earning an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. 

Nearly three weeks later, another last-second shot put those chances in a blender. 

Matthew Cleveland hit an incredible fadeaway three-pointer as time expired to give Florida State a 64-63 victory over Virginia. FSU closed the game on a 12-4 run, erasing a nine-point Cavalier lead in the final two minutes. 

In some ways, the late-game collapse epitomizes this Virginia basketball season. 

The Cavaliers had been playing their best basketball of the year, showing that, even if the metrics didn't agree, they were playing like an NCAA Tournament-caliber team. Even in a loss to Duke on Wednesday, the Hoos made more believers that they belonged in March Madness. After his Blue Devils outlasted the Cavaliers in another close battle to even the regular season series between the two teams at one game apiece, Mike Krzyzewski said, "There is no question that Virginia is an NCAA Tournament team." 

After Virginia came up just short against No. 7 Duke on Wednesday, there was still a slim chance UVA could win enough games to earn reasonable consideration for an at-large bid on Selection Sunday. But, that would require winning out the regular season plus at least two wins in the ACC Tournament. With the opportunity to play their way to an at-large bid still on the table, the Cavaliers stumbled in their first step to achieving that goal, losing a must-win game against a struggling Florida State team which was missing several key players and which had lost eight of its last nine games. Just three days after going punch-for-punch against one of the top teams in the country, Virginia reverted to old habits and failed to play a complete game against a team the Hoos should have had no problem beating, especially on their home floor.

With the home loss to Florida State, which goes down as a devasting fifth Quad 3 loss for the Cavaliers, Virginia is unofficially eliminated from at-large contention for the NCAA Tournament. BracketResearch.com now gives Virginia a 0.9% chance of making the NCAA Tournament. ESPN's Joe Lunardi moved Virginia from being the seventh team out to being his 10th team out as they slide below the "Next Four Out" line. SMU, San Diego State, BYU, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Florida, St. Bonaventure, Dayton, and VCU now sit in front of Virginia in the line of teams waiting to get into the NCAA Tournament, according to Lunardi. 

Now, there remains only one avenue Virginia can take to get into March Madness. The Cavaliers will have to win the ACC Tournament in order to keep their streak of seven-consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances alive. Virginia is currently slated to be the No. 6 seed in the ACC Tournament, as the Cavaliers (11-8) hold a half-game advantage over Virginia Tech (10-8). 

Virginia concludes the regular season at Louisville on Saturday at 12pm. 

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