Virginia vs. Florida State Game Preview, Score Prediction

It's another Saturday road game and another opportunity for the Cavaliers to extend their winning streak and keep pace in the ACC race

It's another Saturday road game for the Virginia Cavaliers, who have another opportunity to extend their winning streak and keep pace in the ACC standings, but that opportunity comes in a tough road environment as they take on the Florida State Seminoles on Saturday night in Tallahassee. 

Read on for a full preview of Virginia at Florida State, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a prediction for Saturday night's matchup. 

Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (18-5, 9-3 ACC) at Florida State Seminoles (13-9, 7-4 ACC)

When: Saturday, February 10th at 8pm ET

Where: Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida

How to watch: The CW

How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

How to listen: SiriusXM 384, SXM App 974 | Virginia Sports Radio Network - click here for affiliates

All-time series: Tied 28-28

Last meeting: Virginia defeated Florida State 67-58 on January 14th, 2023 in Tallahassee. 

Game Notes

• The all-time series between Virginia and Florida State, which dates back to 1992, is tied at 28-28. 
• UVA won the last two games in the series, sweeping the season series against FSU last season. 
• Florida State is 17-9 against Virginia in games played in Tallahassee. 
• Tony Bennett is 11-11 against Florida State as a head coach. 
• Virginia is second in the ACC standings with a 9-3 record and Florida State is tied for fourth at 7-4. 

Opponent Scouting Report: Florida State

2022-2023: 9-23, 7-13 ACC
2023-2024: 13-9, 7-4 ACC

The ageless Leonard Hamilton is in his 36th season as a head coach and 22nd season serving as head coach at Florida State. After making four-straight NCAA Tournaments from 2017 to 2021, it's been a couple of down years for the Seminoles, who have missed out on the Big Dance each of the last two seasons. 

The 2023-2024 campaign didn't exactly get off to a great start either, as Florida State suffered an early 21-point loss at Florida and then went on a four-game losing streak in December with losses to Georgia, North Carolina, South Florida, and SMU. The Seminoles also dropped a home game to Lipscomb to fall to 6-6 on the season, but they followed that up with a resurgence in their return to ACC play, rattling off five-straight wins against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Miami. Defeats to quality teams in Clemson and North Carolina sandwiched a good road win at Syracuse, but then the Seminoles endured their worst and most inexplicable loss of the season, allowing the hapless Louisville Cardinals to score triple digits in a 101-92 defeat last Saturday. Florida State barely hung on for a 63-62 win at Boston College on Tuesday, which provided a small bounce back. 

With that review of FSU's roller coaster of a season for context, it's difficult to predict what to expect from the Seminoles when the Cavaliers come to town on Saturday. They're 7-5 at home, 2-4 in Quad 1 games and 5-1 in Quad 2, and currently ranked No. 93 in the NET rankings. What you can expect is that, as usual, Leonard Hamilton's Seminoles are long and athletic and run a deep rotation. FSU's shortest player is 6'3" and the team has four players standing at least 6'10" who play significant minutes. 12 Seminoles are averaging double figure minutes per game, showing that once again, Florida State basketball is synonymous with depth. 

Taking a look at the starting five, the Seminoles are led by 6'7" junior forward Jamir Watkins, a transfer from VCU who is enjoying a breakout season, averaging 13.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game, all career-highs. Watkins shoots the ball at 31.0% from three and is an active defender, registering 1.7 steals per game. 

In the backcourt, former UCF transfer and 6'4" senior guard Darin Green is the team's best volume three-point shooter at 39.1% on more than six attempts per game. Green averages 12.0 points per game and is also a good defender, averaging 1.7 steals per game. Joining Green is 6'6" junior guard Jalen Warley, who is averaging 7.3 points, 2.6 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. For a team known for its aggressive and active defense, Green and Warley lead the way with a lot of ball pressure on opposing guards. 

In the front court, Florida State starts Baba Miller and De'Ante Green, both sophomore forwards who stand at just under seven feet tall. A sophomore from Spain, Miller is averaging 7.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game and can knock down the occasional three at 31.0%. Green entered the starting lineup after the first five games of the season and has retained that spot, averaging just under six points per contest. Miller and Green are long and athletic and will provide another good test for Virginia's much-improved front court. 

Off the bench, Florida State has several players who can come in and provide a lift on any given night. We'll focus on just two of them: 6'3" junior guard Primo Spears and 6'10" sophomore forward Cameron Corhen. Spears missed the first six weeks of the season as he waited for approval from the NCAA on his waiver to play immediately. A transfer from Georgetown, Spears is third on the team in scoring at 11.4 points per game and also dishes out 2.3 assists per contest. Corhen started the first five games before getting supplanted by De'Ante Green, but Corhen is still the team's fourth-leading scorer off the bench, averaging 8.5 points and 3.6 rebounds per game. 

What to Watch For

Which Florida State shows up?

Florida State is something of an enigma this season. With Quad 1 wins against Miami and Colorado and a tough battle with North Carolina in a single-digit loss just two weeks ago, there's proof that the Seminoles can play with and beat the best when they're on their A-game. But there's also evidence to the contrary, with the most significant example being the disastrous loss to Louisville in which the wheels fell off for Florida State's defense. A one-point win at Boston College doesn't do much to restore confidence, but FSU remains in the top tier of the ACC standings, so it shouldn't be an option for the Cavaliers to overlook them, especially at the Tucker Center, a building that hasn't been kind to Virginia historically. 

Ball security and turnovers

This game pits two of the top three teams in the ACC in terms of turnover margin against one another. Virginia is one of the best teams in the country at not turning the ball over, leading the ACC at only 8.4 turnovers per game. Florida State, meanwhile, turns it over 12.3 times per game, but also forces an ACC-best 15.6 turnovers, with its aggressive defense posting 9.5 steals per game, good for 15th in the country. In what will likely be another low-possession game, assuming Virginia plays at its preferred pace, taking care of the basketball against Florida State's aggressive defense will be essential. 

Keeping pace in the ACC race

There's still a month left in the regular season, but what was once a laughable proposition just a few weeks ago is now well within reach as the Cavaliers now officially control their own destiny in the race for the ACC regular season title. Virginia (9-3) trails league-leading North Carolina (10-2) by just one game and the Tar Heels are set to come to John Paul Jones Arena for a showdown on Saturday, February 24th. Tony Bennett and his team won't be concerning themselves with that, but it's another reason - alongside UVA's positioning to earn an NCAA Tournament bid - that it's imperative that the Cavaliers continue to ride the momentum of this now seven-game winning streak as long as they can. 

Prediction

Only Duke has given Virginia more trouble than Florida State in the ACC under Tony Bennett, especially when the Cavaliers travel to the Tucker Center. But Virginia has been playing consistently good basketball for nearly a month now, whereas Florida State has been the definition of inconsistent. If UVA takes care of the ball and limits FSU's opportunities to score off of turnovers, the Cavaliers should be able to come back from Tallahassee with another win. 

Score prediction: Virginia 64, Florida State 60

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