Virginia vs. Houston Game Preview, Score Prediction
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After a long, but much-needed 10-day break, the No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers return to action on Saturday for their biggest game of the season to date, as the No. 5 Houston Cougars come to town as the highest-ranked non-conference opponent to ever play UVA in Charlottesville. The Cougars will certainly play with fire after a loss to Alabama last weekend caused them to fall from the No. 1 spot, but the Cavaliers will be fueled by last season's 20-point loss to the Cougars in Houston. John Paul Jones Arena will be rocking on Saturday afternoon to witness this epic showdown between two of the best teams in all of college basketball.
Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. Houston, including details on the game, stat comparisons, an opponent scouting report, game notes, and a score prediction.
Game Details
Who: No. 5 Houston Cougars (10-1, 0-0 AAC) at No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers (8-0, 1-0 ACC)
When: Saturday, December 17th at 2pm
Where: John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia
How to watch: ESPN2
How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
How to listen: SiriusXM 158 or 194, SXM App 956 | Virginia Sports Radio Network - click here for affiliates
All-time series: Houston leads 4-3
Last meeting: Houston defeated Virginia 67-47 last season in Houston.
Stat Comparison
Opponent Scouting Report: Houston
2022-2023: 10-1
Wins: vs. Northern Colorado 83-36, vs. Saint Joseph's 81-55, vs. Oral Roberts 83-45, vs. Texas Southern 83-48, at Oregon 66-56, vs. Kent State 49-44, vs. Norfolk State 100-52, vs. Saint Mary's 53-48, vs. North Florida 76-42, vs. North Carolina A&T 74-46
Loss: vs. Alabama 71-65
Houston came into the season having reached the Sweet Sixteen in each of the last three NCAA Tournaments and returning a few core pieces from last year's squad that won 32 games, took home the AAC Tournament title, and advanced to the Elite Eight. The Cougars won their first nine games, including a notable road victory at Oregon, and rose to the No. 1 spot in the AP poll for the first time since 1983 when Houston was led by Clyde Drexler and Akeem Olajuwon.
Then, Alabama came to town last Saturday and knocked off Houston 71-65. The Cougars bounced back with a near 30-point win against North Carolina A&T, but they'll still come to Charlottesville with something to prove against No. 2 Virginia.
This game presents a rare instance in which Tony Bennett's Cavaliers are facing a better defense than their own. Houston is ranked No. 1 in the nation in scoring defense (49.4 points per game allowed) and field goal defense (31.6%) and the Cougars are No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing 82.8 points per 100 possessions. There is no chance that Saturday's game gets close to that number of possessions, though, as Houston is just as comfortable as UVA when it comes to playing slow, low-scoring games, as both teams are ranked towards the bottom of the country in adjusted tempo.
Houston plays a very aggressive style of defense, hedging out well beyond the three-point arc, helping quickly on any interior drives, and flying all over the court to disrupt passing lanes. Virginia will have to make quick and accurate passes in order to produce quality looks against this Cougar defense that will be by far the most athletic and physical the Cavaliers have faced this season.
The Cougars are not a very good three-point shooting team at 32.9%, but they more than make up for it with their offensive rebounding. Statistically, Houston has the nation's best offensive rebounding rate, rebounding 40.4% of the team's missed shots. Only two teams in all of college basketball have an offensive rebounding rate above 40%. The Cavaliers will have to be disciplined in their box outs and have strong hands when they secure rebounds to avoid the Cougars getting their usual allotment of second-chance buckets. On the other end of the floor, however, Virginia should take a page out of Houston's book and attack the offensive glass, as the Cougars' aggressive style of defense sometimes leaves them exposed on defensive rebounds. UVA has to be able to give the Cougars a taste of their own medicine, getting a few easy putbacks outside of the flow of the offense.
Houston is led by 6'2" senior guard Marcus Sasser, one of the most talented players in the nation. He had 19 points against Virginia last season and is averaging 16.2 points per game so far this year. Sasser takes the majority of Houston's three-pointers at 6.5 attempts per game, but only hits on 30.6% of those shots. That isn't a reason for UVA to leave him open, but the Hoos should worry more about his drives to the basket than his perimeter shooting.
One of the biggest storylines for the overall game, but in particular for this matchup with Marcus Sasser, is the status of Reece Beekman, who played just four minutes in Virginia's last game against James Madison on December 6th before exiting with a hamstring injury. UVA associate head coach Jason Williford said on Tuesday that Beekman is still "day-by-day", so it's unclear how much Beekman has been able to practice during this 10-day break. We likely won't know until close to tip-off if Beekman will play and even then, there's no telling how close to 100% he will be. When Beekman turned his ankle in the game at Michigan, he didn't contribute as much on the offensive end after the injury, but he still played lockdown defense to help Virginia win the game. If Beekman lacks that explosive burst of speed that is so critical to his offensive game, he could still help the Cavaliers tremendously against the Cougars with his defense on Marcus Sasser.
Joining Sasser in the backcourt are some talented guards, including 6'1" junior point guard Jamal Shead, who is a gifted passer and makes excellent decisions with the ball. Shead averaged 5.7 assists per game and turns the ball over less than twice per contest. He scores 7.5 points per game and is also a very good on-ball defender. The Cougars have some good size at the guard position in 6'5" sophomore guard Tramon Mark and 6'4" sophomore guard Ramon Walker off the bench.
Once again, Virginia is facing a team that does not have the traditionally-sized forwards and centers. Houston plays a rotation of smaller, but athletic forwards who are all 6'7" or 6'8". That once again presents an opportunity for Kadin Shedrick to be aggressive in the post and on the offensive glass, but Virginia needs him to assert himself better than he has in the previous matchups against teams with smaller front courts. Expect UVA to use the lineup with Jayden Gardner and Ben Vander Plas sharing the court a lot.
Freshman Jarace Walker, a 6'8" forward, will be a matchup problem for Virginia. He is aggressive inside and won't shy away from contact, but is also capable of knocking down jump shots. Walker is the team's most consistent three-point shooter at 37.5% on 1.5 attempts per game. He also averages 6.5 rebounds per game.
6'7" wing J'Wan Roberts is the team's leading rebounder at 7.2 boards per game and also averages 9.3 points per game. Terrance Arceneaux (6'7" guard), Reggie Chaney (6'8" forward), and Ja'Vier Francis (6'8" forward) each give Houston double-digit minutes off the bench as long and athletic players able to switch on defense and crash the boards on offense.
Game Notes
- Houston, ranked No. 5 in the AP poll, is the highest ranked non-conference opponent Virginia has ever played at home
- A win against No. 5 Houston would give UVA its second top-five win this season, marking the first time the Cavaliers have beaten two top five foes in a season since the 2016-2017 campaign
- Virginia has a 14-12 record against current members of the American Athletic Conference
- UVA is ranked No. 2 in the latest AP poll, its highest ranking since the end of the 2018-2019 season
- Virginia's 8-0 start is the best start for the program since beginning the 2018-2019 season 16-0
- Houston holds a 4-3 advantage in the all-time series against Virginia, but UVA won the only meeting in Charlottesville, defeating the Cougars 72-54 on December 9th, 1989 at University Hall
Prediction
Virginia officially announced on Friday that the game against Houston on Saturday has been sold out. As expected, JPJ will be rocking, a fitting environment for a top five non-conference matchup. In a 40-minute battle between two of the best defenses in the nation, the game is likely to come down to who can execute on offense and knock down a shot late in the game. UVA's experience has proven to be crucial so far this season. In the wins against Baylor and Illinois in Las Vegas and especially in the comeback win at Michigan, the Cavaliers showed significant mental toughness and an impressive ability to make plays at the most pivotal times. Houston's physicality and rigid defense will be the toughest test of the season, but, assuming Reece Beekman plays and is somewhat close to his usual self, Virginia should be up for the challenge and will pull out the big victory behind the support of the home crowd.
Score prediction: Houston 58, Virginia 62
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