Virginia vs. North Carolina Game Preview, Score Prediction

The Hoos take on the Heels in a pivotal ACC showdown on Saturday afternoon in Charlottesville

After suffering a humbling loss at Virginia Tech on Monday night, the Virginia Cavaliers have little time to lick their wounds as No. 10 North Carolina comes to Charlottesville for the biggest game of the season on Saturday afternoon at John Paul Jones Arena. 

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. North Carolina, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a prediction for Saturday's matchup. 

Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (20-7, 11-5 ACC) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (20-6, 12-3 ACC)

When: Saturday, February 24th at 4pm ET

Where: John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia

How to watch: ESPN

How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

How to listen: SiriusXM 139 or 193, SXM App 955 | Virginia Sports Radio Network - click here for affiliates

All-time series: North Carolina leads 134-62

Last meeting: Virginia defeated North Carolina 68-58 in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament on March 9th, 2023 in Greensboro. 

Game Notes

• North Carolina leads Virginia 134-62 in the all-time series that dates back to 1911. 
• UVA is 38-44 against UNC in Charlottesville, but 8-4 against the Tar Heels at John Paul Jones Arena. 
• Virginia comes in with an eight-game home winning streak against North Carolina. UNC's last win at John Paul Jones Arena came in 2012. 
• Tony Bennett is 14-11 against North Carolina as a head coach. 
• North Carolina is tied for first in the ACC standings with a 12-3 conference record and Virginia is third at 11-5. 

Opponent Scouting Report: North Carolina

2023-2024: 20-6, 12-3 ACC

Hubert Davis and company seem to have sorted out whatever issues produced last season's mystifyingly terrible season. After bringing back the bulk of the roster that made the national title game in 2021-2022, the Tar Heels were ranked No. 1 in the preseason AP Top 25 in 2022-2023 and proceeded to fail to make the NCAA Tournament. This season, however, UNC appears to have corrected course and have a team capable of competing with best in the country once again. 

North Carolina dropped three games in non-conference action, suffering an overtime loss to Villanova and two other hard-fought defeats to UConn and Kentucky. After that loss to the Wildcats on December 16th, the Tar Heels went on a 10-game winning streak and won their first nine ACC games. Then came a puzzling 74-73 loss at Georgia Tech, which was followed immediately by a strong 93-84 win over archrival Duke in Chapel Hill. UNC has continued to alternate wins and losses in recent weeks, losing to Clemson at home for just the second time ever, then earning a three-point win at Miami, then falling on the road at Syracuse, and then beating Virginia Tech by 15 at home. Virginia is hoping that the pattern of wins and losses continues for North Carolina. 

Two holdovers from that run to the 2022 National Championship Game remain and lead the way for the Tar Heels in RJ Davis and Armando Bacot. Davis is the ACC's leading scorer at 21.3 points per game, is second in the conference in free throw shooting at 90.4%, and is sixth in three-point shooting at 41.0%, all career-highs for the 6'0" senior guard. He has scored in double figures in all but one game this season and tends to deliver his best games against top competition. 

This will be the ninth time in his long collegiate career that Armando Bacot has faced Virginia. After failing to beat UVA in his first three matchups, Bacot has now had his fare share of wins and big performances against the Cavaliers, including a 29-point, 22-rebound double-double in the 2021-2022 season. Bacot is 3-5 against Virginia in his career and has yet to win at John Paul Jones Arena, though it should be noted that he barely played when the Tar Heels came to Charlottesville last season, as Bacot went down with an injury less than a minute into the contest. Expect Bacot to be a force in this matchup, as he is the ACC's leading rebounder at 10.3 rebounds per game and is also averaging 14.6 points and 1.6 blocks per game and converts at nearly 80% at the charity stripe, a place he gets to a lot. Bacot will be a massive challenge for Virginia's front court. 

Joining the veteran leaders Bacot and Davis in the starting five are three newcomers to this year's UNC roster. Stanford transfer Harrison Ingram has had an enormous impact for the Tar Heels this season, averaging 12.5 points and 9.1 rebounds per game. The 6'7" junior forward was not a good three-point shooter in his time at Stanford, but has suddenly developed into a sharpshooter at 40.7% from three on 4.5 attempts per game. That makes Ingram a matchup nightmare, especially with all of the attention opposing defenses already have to give to Davis and Bacot. 

Notre Dame graduate transfer Cormac Ryan is averaging 10.8 points per game. The 6'5" guard isn't shooting well from three this season at 31.7%, but he is capable of getting hot and has made four threes in each of his last two games and otherwise plays his role well. Rounding out the starting five is 6'1" freshman and Preseason ACC Rookie of the Year Elliot Cadeau, who is averaging 7.8 points per game. Cadeau has not shot the three well in his first season, but is a good playmaker, averaging just under four assists per game. 

Look for sophomore guard Seth Trimble, a 42.9% three-point shooter but on very few attempts, 6'10" sophomore forward Jalen Washington, who had a solid game against Virginia last season when Bacot got injured, and Louisville transfer Jae'Lyn Withers to be the key names off the bench for North Carolina. 

North Carolina leads the ACC in scoring at 82.8 points per game, is the ninth-best rebounding team in the country, and is very good at getting to the free throw line, ranking 11th in the country in free throws made (18.0) and 19th in attempts (23.9). That's an area where they have a distinct advantage over the Cavaliers. And while Virginia can usually boast a much better defense than UNC, that margin might not be as wide this season as the Tar Heels are not as porous defensively, giving up 71.4 points per game and ranking second in the ACC in field goal defense, trailing only UVA in that category. 

What to Watch For

Can Virginia contain Armando Bacot?

UVA's biggest concern is this game is how its front court will fare in their efforts to contain Armando Bacot. Virginia's center tandem of Jordan Minor and Blake Buchanan, with support from Ryan Dunn and Jake Groves, made some steady progress during the eight-game winning streak, but have regressed notably in the last couple of weeks and are trying to find their footing again. If Minor and Buchanan can't limit Bacot's paint touches or keep him off the offensive glass without getting into foul trouble, it could be a long night for the Cavaliers, who are quite familiar with what Bacot is capable of when he gets going. 

Reece Beekman vs. RJ Davis

Two of the top point guards not only in the ACC, but in the entire country, will go head-to-head once again on Saturday at JPJ. Both players are the MVPs of their respective teams. RJ Davis has the edge on offense with a much better jump shot and a better all-around offensive game, but Reece Beekman of course is one of the best on-ball defenders in the sport. It'll be strength on strength when Davis has the ball with Beekman guarding him, but Davis can also be a capable defender when he sets his mind to it. And with UNC able to help off of Virginia's many non-shooters, Beekman may find it difficult to locate driving lanes, as was the case in Monday's harrowing blowout loss at Virginia Tech. If one player emphatically wins this individual matchup, his team will likely win the game. 

What is the value of home-court advantage?

If this game was being played in Chapel Hill or even on a neutral floor, not many people would give the Cavaliers much more than a puncher's chance to beat the Tar Heels on Saturday and they'll likely still be a heavy home underdog. But at John Paul Jones Arena, a place where Virginia is 14-1 this season and has lost only once in the last 400+ days, and a building where North Carolina hasn't won since February 25th, 2012, the Hoos will have a shot at the very least. How much is home-court advantage worth and will it be enough to carry Virginia to what could be a season-defining win?

Prediction

I've gone back and forth on this one quite a bit. North Carolina has the on-paper edge on Virginia in several critical categories and the Cavaliers' play over the last two weeks has done little to inspire confidence that they're ready to go knock off a top 10 opponent. UVA is capable of playing well enough to win this game, especially at home. But that version of Virginia hasn't shown up recently. Veteran leaders RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, who will be highly motivated to snap UNC's eight-game losing streak at JPJ, won't be fazed by the hostile road environment. 

Score prediction: North Carolina 71, Virginia 67

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