Virginia vs. Wisconsin Game Preview, Score Prediction

The Cavaliers battle the Badgers in the opening game of the Fort Myers Tip-Off on Monday night

In pursuit of a ninth November tournament championship in the last 10 seasons, Virginia heads down to Florida to participate in the Fort Myers Tip-Off as part of a field that includes Wisconsin, West Virginia, and future ACC member SMU. The Cavaliers will take on the Badgers on Monday at 6pm and will then face either West Virginia or SMU on Wednesday. 

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. Wisconsin, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a prediction for Monday night's matchup. 

Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (4-0) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (2-2)

When: Monday, November 20th at 6pm ET

Where: Suncoast Credit Union Arena (Fort Myers, FL)

How to watch: FS1

How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

How to listen: SiriusXM 391, SXM App 981 | Virginia Sports Radio Network - click here for affiliates

All-time series: Virginia leads 4-2

Last meeting: Virginia defeated Wisconsin 53-46 on November 23rd, 2018 in the Battle 4 Atlantis in Nassau, Bahamas.

Game Notes

• In the last nine years, Virginia has won eight November tournament championships: Emerald Coast Classic, Charleston Classic, Barclays Center Classic, Corpus Christi Challenge, NIT Season Tip-Off, Battle 4 Atlantis, Legends Classic, Continental Main Event
• Virginia owns a 4-2 all-time record against Wisconsin, including a 3-1 edge under Tony Bennett.
• UVA went 2-1 against Wisconsin in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and also defeated the Badgers 53-46 in the last meeting between these two teams at the 2018 Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas.
• Virginia is 19-11 against members of the Big Ten under Tony Bennett, with the most recent game being a victory for the Cavaliers on the road at Michigan in the final edition of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge last season.

Opponent Scouting Report: Wisconsin

2022-2023: 20-15, 9-11 Big Ten, lost in NIT semifinals
2023-2024: 2-2

Wisconsin is in its ninth season under the direction of head coach Greg Gard, a two-time Big Ten Coach of the Year who served alongside Tony Bennett when both were assistant coaches at Wisconsin in the early 2000s. The Badgers won the Big Ten regular season title in the 2021-2022 season, but then missed the NCAA Tournament for just the second time in the last 22 years last season, going 20-15 overall and advancing to the semifinals of the NIT.

Wisconsin is in a very similar position this year as Virginia was last year. The Badgers made a run in the NIT last season, just as the Cavaliers did in 2021-2022, and then returned all of their starters and 92% of their scoring this season. Whether that's a good thing or not for Wisconsin remains to be seen. 

Wisconsin has already faced two major conference opponents this season and both games resulted in losses for the Badgers, who fell at home to current No. 7 Tennessee 80-70 and then lost at Providence 72-59 before bouncing back with a 78-68 win over Robert Morris last Friday. 

St. John's transfer AJ Storr, a 6'7" guard, has taken over as Wisconsin's leading scorer this season, averaging 15.5 points per game and taking by far the most shots - 15.0 field goal attempts per game, while no other player averages double digit attempts. Storr is joined in the back court by 6'2" guard Chucky Hepburn (12.8 points per game) and 6'4" guard John Blackwell (10.3 points per game). 

Storr and Hepburn attempt around four threes per game, but neither have shot the ball very well from beyond the arc. Blackwell is Wisconsin's top three-point threat, shooting a blistering 57.1% from three on just under two attempts per game, but Wisconsin has not been a good three-point shooting team so far this season at 29.0%. Recognizing this weakness, the Badgers rank 326th in terms of three-point attempts and have instead placed a priority on getting to the free throw line. Wisconsin attempts 26.3 free throws each game on average. 

In the front court, Wisconsin has two very physical forwards that will pose similar challenges to Virginia's front court as did Florida. Steven Crowl will be a lot for Blake Buchanan to handle given his 7'0", 247-pound frame as well as his ability to pass the ball and step outside for the occasional jumper. Joining Crowl up front is 6'9" forward Tyler Wahl, who will likely draw Ryan Dunn to start the game. Both Crowl and Wahl are averaging north of 10 points per game so far, giving the Badgers five total players who average in double figures scoring through the first four games of the season. 

What to Watch For

Isaac McKneely?

The biggest question mark entering this game for Virginia is the status of Isaac McKneely, who went down with an ankle injury in the first half of Virginia's win over North Carolina A&T last Tuesday, missing the second half of that game as well as UVA's next game against Texas Southern on Thursday. There has been a positive indication that McKneely could return for the Wisconsin game, as the official UVA men's basketball social media accounts posted a video of the team's practice in Fort Myers on Sunday that included multiple clips of McKneely participating seemingly unrestricted in all of the drills. Virginia's offense struggled a bit against Texas Southern, especially shooting the three, so McKneely's potential return would have a major impact for the Cavaliers this week in Florida. 

Another test for UVA's evolving front court

Virginia is still figuring out the most effective rotations in the front court and it's likely that those rotations will be largely matchup dependent as the season goes on. Blake Buchanan asserted himself as UVA's starting center, a rare feat for a Cavalier true freshman, with a phenomenal performance against Florida's bigs. The Cavaliers will need another game like that from Buchanan as he goes head-to-head with Steven Crowl. Similarly, Ryan Dunn will need to continue his breakout sophomore campaign on both ends of the floor, but in particular on the defensive end. Meanwhile, the Hoos hope to see Jake Groves and Leon Bond III continue to give them a lift off the bench. 

Wisconsin Connections

This bears no impact on the game, but it will inevitably be mentioned ad nauseam throughout the broadcast on Monday night. Tony Bennett is famously a Wisconsin native who played college basketball at Green Bay, served as an assistant at Wisconsin for four seasons under his father Dick Bennett and then Bo Ryan, and has frequently found success recruiting in the state of Wisconsin. Virginia has three players on its current roster who are Wisconsin natives - Reece Beekman (Milwaukee), Leon Bond III (Wauwatosa), and Andrew Rohde (Milwaukee). 

Prediction

College basketball fans generally expect a low-scoring affair when Virginia and Wisconsin get together. There's reasonable cause for those expectations, as UVA won by a final score of 53-46 the last time these two teams played. With that said, the Badgers are playing at a decently fast tempo so far this season (89th in adjusted tempo) and both teams currently rank in the top 50 in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom. So, this can and should be a much higher-scoring game. 

And it's early, but Virginia has thus far been a more impressive team than Wisconsin, not to mention Tony Bennett's track record in these November tournaments, which speaks for itself. 

Score prediction: Virginia 68, Wisconsin 63

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