What's Next for Virginia After Ryan Dunn's Departure for the NBA Draft?

Matt Newton | Apr 17, 2024

Ryan Dunn waits to be introduced during the Virginia men's basketball game against Texas Southern at John Paul Jones Arena. / Virginia Athletics

It's been expected for a few weeks, but now it's finally official: Ryan Dunn has declared for the 2024 NBA Draft. The 6'8" sophomore forward announced his intention to enter his name into the draft on Tuesday morning and, as perhaps the only surprising aspect of the news, did not state that he is maintaining his college eligibility, instead telling ESPN that he is "ready for the next level" and "all-in" on the NBA, in essence closing the door on his career at Virginia.

The purpose of this article isn't to litigate whether it's the right decision for Dunn - though for what's it worth, I think it is the right call for Dunn to declare at this point as it seems highly unlikely that his draft stock would have improved with another year at UVA. Instead, we're here to take a look at what Dunn's departure for the NBA means for Virginia's offseason personnel moves and projected roster for next season.

Beginning with UVA's scholarship situation for next season, the Cavaliers now have three open scholarship spots for the 2024-2025 season. Here's a breakdown of Virginia's personnel changes so far this offseason:

Expected departures:
G Reece Beekman (Sr.) - NBA Draft
F Ryan Dunn (So.) - NBA Draft
F Jordan Minor (Gr.) - exhausted eligibility
F Jake Groves (Gr.) - exhausted eligibility
G Leon Bond III (RS Fr.) - transfer portal

Expected additions:
G Ishan Sharma (incoming freshman)
F Jacob Cofie (incoming freshman)

Here's Virginia's current scholarship roster for the 2024-2025 season sorted by position and including details on each player's eligibility remaining:
PG: Dante Harris (2 years), Christian Bliss (4 years)
SG: Isaac McKneely (2 years), Elijah Gertrude (3 years), Ishan Sharma (4 years)
SF: Andrew Rohde (2 years), Taine Murray (1 year)
PF: Jacob Cofie (4 years)
C: Blake Buchanan (3 years), Anthony Robinson (4 years)

Virginia will return just two players who were regular starters last season: Isaac McKneely and Andrew Rohde. Blake Buchanan got six starts, Taine Murray started two games, and Dante Harris started one. Going purely based on scoring average, the Cavaliers are losing four of their top five scorers and 62.3% of their scoring from a season ago. Behind Isaac McKneely, who averaged 12.3 points per game, the next highest-scorer returning on the roster is Andrew Rohde at 4.3 points per game. For a team that struggled mightily to score the ball last season, the outlook for Virginia's offense next season is bleak.

What might be even more concerning is the other side of the ball, as the Cavaliers still managed to win 23 games, finish third in the ACC, and sneak into the NCAA Tournament despite their offensive issues. Virginia's defense was once again elite this season, ranking 7th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 3rd in scoring defense. While Tony Bennett's system and the connected team defense UVA put on the floor had a big hand in that, it's undeniable that two big reasons for Virginia's success on the defensive end were the individual efforts of Reece Beekman and Ryan Dunn, who finished first and second in the voting for ACC Defensive Player of the Year and who were the first two players listed on the ACC All-Defensive Team.

While Beekman was arguably the best on-ball guard defender in the country, Dunn likely had a greater impact on Virginia's defense due to his ability to roam the floor, protect the rim (leading the ACC in blocks), disrupt passing lanes, and just find ways to get his hands on the ball. Dunn was the only player in the country with at least a 10% block percentage and at least a 3% steal percentage, per everyone's favorite UVA sports statistician Danny Neckel.

Ryan Dunn was the only men's college basketball player last season with a block % of 10% or better and a steal % of 3% or better.

The last two major conference players to do that were Willie Cauley-Stein and Nerlens Noel, who were both top 10 NBA draft picks. https://t.co/luD3OLjZgk

— Danny Neckel (@DNeckel19) April 16, 2024

Say what you will about his offensive production (or lack thereof), but Virginia will sorely miss Ryan Dunn's defensive presence on the floor next season.

It makes some sense then that one of Tony Bennett's possible replacements for Dunn in the transfer portal is Illinois-Chicago wing Toby Okani, who joined Dunn in an exclusive group of elite defenders who averaged more than two blocks and one steal per game last season. The 6'8" grad transfer averaged 2.0 blocks and 1.5 steals per game and garnered a spot on the Missouri Valley Conference All-Defensive Team. Okani is scheduled to visit take a visit to Virginia early next week.

UVA also hosted Saint Mary's transfer forward Joshua Jefferson for a visit last weekend. Though Jefferson said it was "a great visit" in an interview with Houston Wilson of CavsCorner, he is still going to take visits to TCU and Iowa State before making his decision.

With three scholarship spots open for next season, at least one of those will be used on a player who can slot in at power forward. The departures of Ryan Dunn and Jake Groves leaves incoming freshman Jacob Cofie as the only power forward on next year's roster. Cofie should be in line for a semi-significant role in his first year, but the Cavaliers will want more guaranteed production from that position and, just in general, more depth, size, and experience in the front court alongside rising sophomore center Blake Buchanan and Anthony Robinson coming off of his redshirt year.

Expect Virginia to add at least one transfer forward in the coming weeks. The UVA coaching staff is seemingly contacting new transfer targets in the portal every day. Keep up with all of the players the Cavaliers have reportedly been in contact with in the transfer portal here: Virginia Basketball: Transfer Portal Contact Live Tracker

More Virginia Men's Basketball News and Content

Virginia Forward Ryan Dunn Declares for 2024 NBA Draft
Virginia to Host UIC Transfer Wing Toby Okani for Official Visit
Could Trent Perry be the Solution to Virginia's Point Guard Problem?
Saint Mary's Transfer Forward Joshua Jefferson Schedules Visit to Virginia
Virginia Basketball Transfer Portal Contact Live Tracker