Will Ryan Dunn Declare for the NBA Draft? Checking in on the Latest Mock Drafts

Matt Newton | Mar 31, 2024

Virginia forward Ryan Dunn is introduced before the game against North Carolina at John Paul Jones Arena. / Hannah Pajewski-USA TODAY Sports

As Virginia navigates the choppy waters known as the college basketball offseason and looks to reshape and improve its roster for next year, one of the key dominoes that the Cavaliers are waiting for to fall is Ryan Dunn's future. Long considered a strong candidate to be a first round pick based on his size (6'8", 216 pounds), athleticism, and defensive prowess, the sophomore forward now has an important decision to make.

While Dunn is still likely to hear his name called if he declares for the 2024 NBA Draft, which will be held on June 26th and 27th in Chicago, his projected draft position has taken a dip in the last couple of months. Some draft experts had Dunn as a borderline lottery pick and a definite first round selection earlier in the season, but as his struggles on the offensive end became more and apparent later in the year, his draft stock has declined.

Kevin O'Connor of the Ringer updated his 2024 NBA Draft Big Board and released a new mock draft on March 27th. O'Connor has Dunn as the 31st-ranked prospect on his Big Board and has Dunn hearing his name called early in the second round with the No. 36 overall pick to the Indiana Pacers.

Here's what O'Connor wrote about Dunn in his scouting report:

"PLUSES
Special defender who disrupts plays in every way. He can shade toward a ball handler, then recover to his man before the ball even gets there. He has closing speed to run shooters off the line, or block drivers from behind in the paint. He’s intelligent, often blowing up opponents’ plays. And with his versatility, he can switch to effectively contain opponents of any shape or style.

Elite rim protector from the wing position with immaculate timing when helping inside. Plus, he rebounds well for someone his size, which allows him to play some power forward.

Understands his offensive role. He isn’t a creator but he limits mistakes, and keeps the ball moving.

Athletic at-rim finisher with solid skills attacking closeouts in a straight line, a knack for running the break, and a great feel for cutting in the half court. He can use touch finishes with either hand, or put defenders on a poster.

MINUSES
Limited shooter who lacks any semblance of a midrange game. Opponents don’t show him respect when he’s spotting up from 3. He bricks open looks, and hasn’t shown any better touch from the line. Unless he makes significant improvements, he’ll need to be used closer to the rim or as a screener, and in lineups that feature a lot of shooting around him.

Has shown no ability to create his own shot, aside from straight-line and transition drives, and he won’t be asked to generate offense for others. Even when he’s in the open floor, or covered by a slower player, he tends to just look to move the ball."

It's hard to call any parts of O'Connor's assessment of Dunn unfair. Those offensive limitations are ultimately what have caused Dunn's draft stock to fall, but his defensive instincts and incredible potential from an athleticism standpoint are keeping him as a projected early second rounder or late first rounder depending on who you ask.

ESPN's latest Mock Draft from Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo has Dunn going No. 31 overall to the Toronto Raptors.

Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report has Dunn going a little later in the second round, No. 41 overall to the Philadelphia 76ers.

Then there are a couple of projections on either end of the extreme, with Bryan Kalbrosky of USA TODAY For The Win still having Dunn as a first round pick going No. 24 overall to the New York Knicks, while NBADraft.net doesn't have Dunn getting drafted at all.

There are a number of factors for Dunn to consider when making this choice. It would be worth it to come back for another season of college basketball if Dunn can significantly improve his projected draft position, with the most beneficial outcome being a more lucrative rookie contract. But it's no guarantee that another season at the college level will have that outcome, especially considering the way Dunn's draft stock fluctuated throughout this season - maybe it's the case that Dunn would be better off developing within an NBA organization next season. With that said, we're also talking about a player who was willing to walk on to the Virginia men's basketball team when it seemed there wasn't going to be a scholarship available to him because he wanted to be a Cavalier that badly.

It's a difficult decision, but the most likely outcome is that Ryan Dunn declares for the NBA Draft while maintaining his college eligibility, which would allow him to participate in pre-draft workouts with various teams as well as the NBA Draft Combine, while keeping open the option to withdraw his name and return to college for another season.

The deadline to enter one's name into the 2024 NBA Draft while maintaining college eligibility is 11:59pm ET on April 27th. The NBA Combine will take place from May 13th-19th in Chicago. The deadline to withdraw from the NBA Draft and return to college is 5pm ET on June 16th.