Coaching Carousel: Who Will Virginia Battle for Top Coaching Candidates?

William Smythe | Jan 19, 2025

Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

With a 1-6 record in the ACC, Virginia men’s basketball will be competing against Miami and a few other power-conference programs for top head coaching candidates as a new chapter begins in Charlottesville. 

A factor to monitor, moreover, is the value of conferences in the eyes of coaches looking to make the jump to a major conference head coaching gig. Does the Big Ten or SEC now hold a significant advantage over the ACC as a more attractive basketball league, and will the Big East’s unique position — unaffected by football — help them to avoid conference-related controversy? 

We will make updated versions of this list as the season progresses.

Lock for a Coaching Change: Miami

While not as prolific a program as Virginia, the Hurricanes made a Final Four as recently as 2023 and won 25+ games five times under former head coach Jim Larrañaga. Now, program success arguably pales in comparison to the NIL war chest at each university’s disposal, and Miami is well-armed. The ‘Canes landed sharpshooter Nijel Pack, five-star Jalil Bethea, and once-coveted transfer Matthew Cleveland over the past three seasons, yet they’ve noticeably underachieved despite their talent pool. Larrañaga’s departing words, like Coach Tony Bennett’s, cited the rampant nature of payment structures as a reason for his inability to keep up with the pace. Now, with the ‘Canes winless in ACC play and 4-14 overall, it seems as if they’ve completely thrown in the towel. 

Miami’s vacancy would be ideal for a younger coach who is willing to plunge into the transfer portal and NIL scene sans issue. Bennett and Larrañaga, while institutions at their respective schools, didn’t love a landscape that contrasts sharply with their personal styles as part of the ACC’s old guard. Even after Miami’s recent Final Four appearance, Larrañaga noted that eight of his ‘Canes vowed to enter the portal. A fleet of departures after a successful campaign isn’t what many would have expected.

Despite its potent NIL arsenal, the Miami job is a step below Virginia’s. South Beach undoubtedly has its appeal, yet the bitter taste of Larrañaga's exit and their woeful slide over the last two years could impact the coaching search. Virginia, Indiana, Villanova, and the ‘Canes could headline the bunch.

Writing on the Wall: Virginia

Unfortunately, Coach Ron Sanchez’s fate might be sealed. The ‘Hoos are 1-6 in-conference, dropped a 20-point defeat to Louisville at home and fell by a combined 41 points to California and Stanford on the West Coast. This offensive style is not sustainable without Bennett in charge, and the defense hasn’t been up to par following the departures of Reece Beekman and Ryan Dunn. The ‘Hoos have been eliminated from at-large contention and will have to take the path of 2024 NC State to earn a spot in the Big Dance, though even making the ACC Tournament isn't a guarantee for the Cavaliers at this point.

It will be weird to start a new era in Charlottesville. Bennett and his coaching disciples, including Sanchez, brought the program to unparalleled heights with the 2019 National Championship win. However, the slower offensive style patented by Bennett — “Embrace the Pace” — might be antiquated in this modern age of college basketball. Also, a methodical offensive philosophy such as the mover-blocker requires a stalwart defense to back it up, and the Pack-Line has looked iffy in Sanchez’s interim year.

Virginia would presumably attract the cream of the crop within the mid-major coaching pool, which includes VCU’s Ryan Odom, Furman’s Bob Richey, and Princeton’s Mitch Henderson. There’s also a possibility that the ‘Hoos could attract a Shaka Smart from Marquette, Mark Byington from Vanderbilt, or another successful coach of a power-conference program. Virginia’s resumé in the modern era speaks for itself.

Read more: Reevaluating Potential Virginia Basketball Head Coaching Candidates

NCAA Tournament or Bust: Indiana

Mike Woodson’s seat was scorching at the end of last season, in which the Hoosiers finished with a 19-14 record and did not scratch the AP Poll at any juncture. It’s currently on fire. Indiana — who secured a prized transfer class and spent some serious dough on a revamped roster — has a 5-3 record in the Big Ten alongside zero marquee wins at the season’s halfway point. If Woodson fails to make the tournament, he will almost certainly be ousted. There are far too many talents on this Indiana roster to justify losing double-digit games, a trend which the Hoosiers have followed since Tom Crean’s last year (2015-16) — a 27-8 campaign. 

As with Villanova, it’s not entirely a done deal as to whether Indiana’s coach will be ousted. Woodson will have to impress higher-ups in Bloomington with a significantly improved body of work in conference play; a 25-point loss at home to Illinois — one of three defeats by at least 25 points this season — won’t help his case, though. It's trending towards the NCAA Tournament or bust for the Hoosiers’ head coach, and even a tournament berth would merit further examination as to whether he’s the right man for such a coveted job.

Indiana is the biggest brand of those programs we're discussing here and will likely receive the splashiest hire. It’s a program that benefits from a robust tradition, significant financial resources, and a secure spot in the Big Ten, but it has lost steam as a program and has ceded ground to the likes of Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan State.

NCAA Tournament or Bust: Villanova

Coach Kyle Neptune is fighting tooth-and-nail to keep his job. A home win over the back-to-back National Champions in then-No. 10 UConn and a 5-3 conference record will boost his stock, although a two-game road slide against St. John’s and Xavier has further narrowed the possibility of ‘Nova’s at-large candidacy in March. Losses to La Salle, Drexel, Penn, Temple, St. Joe’s (2x), Portland, and Columbia over Neptune’s three-year tenure are egregious, and they haven’t really sniffed the Big Dance. It’s more than likely that Villanova conducts a coaching search with Neptune a potential candidate to remain at the helm. Forward Eric Dixon (24.7 PPG) is leading the nation in points per game and has blitzed through Big East competition thus far; if Neptune is to thank anyone for saving his job, it’s the fifth-year forward.

Early-season losses to Columbia, St. Joseph’s, and Virginia will stain the Wildcats’ resume even if they do hold their head above water in-conference. They do have two top-15 wins over then-No. 14 Cincinnati and the Huskies, which will help offset some early struggles. However, they can only afford to lose four or five more games.

An NCAA Tournament berth later and Neptune could retain his full-time position or at least remain a strong candidate within a national coaching search. If not, the ‘Cats will have to look elsewhere — or from within? — as they try to replicate Coach Jay Wright’s winning pedigree.

NCAA Tournament or Bust: Arizona State

A former star at Duke and the older brother of UConn’s Dan Hurley, Coach Bobby Hurley needs to turn Arizona State’s season around to remain in Tempe. He strung together a few impressive early-season wins over the likes of Grand Canyon, Saint Mary’s, and New Mexico, but the Sun Devils — who have five losing seasons and three NCAA Tournament appearances in Hurley’s tenure — are squandering a postseason opportunity with a 1-5 start to Big 12 play. Ironically, what makes the case difficult for Hurley is his recruiting success, as he secured two-five stars and multiple transfers this past offseason. A 105th-ranked 2025 class isn’t encouraging, though. If Hurley can’t win with those tools, how will he fare once five-stars Joson Sanon and Jayden Quaintance have declared for the draft?

I understand that the Big 12 is a gauntlet. Arizona State should exhibit more consistent success, however, and the Sun Devils haven’t advanced beyond the Round of 64 since 2014. If they aren’t at least a bubble team by March, Hurley’s outlook will look bleak. Rumors surrounding NIL issues plagued them in January, but Hurley, Athletic Director Graham Rossini, and Quaintance’s father refuted any claims that the Sun Devils had failed to meet their payments.

Well-positioned in a major men’s basketball conference, this is an appealing spot that could benefit from the football program’s playoff berth. Historically, they’re weaker than the rest on this list and have relied heavily on portalers in an age of discontinuity. I’ll slot them below Miami and Florida State in our list of potential vacancies. While they’re a part of a competitive conference, the basketball brand at Arizona State doesn’t hold as much power.

Possible Retirement: Florida State

I think a 76-year old Leonard Hamilton could be done after this season, even if he’s led the Seminoles to a strong 12-5 start with double-digit wins over Pittsburgh and Syracuse. He and Clemson’s Brad Brownell are the only coaches left in the ACC with 10+ years at the helm of their respective programs, and Hamilton has directed the Seminoles since 2002 — a 23-year tenure. Albeit bouncing back from last season, the Seminoles are 1-4 in Quad 1 matchups and are a far cry from the NCAA Tournament; however, would Florida State faithful be satisfied with a top-six finish in the ACC under Hamilton? Perhaps. 

Unfortunately, the Seminoles’ winning ways in the mid-to-late 2010s have mostly fizzled out. Florida State made four consecutive Big Dances from 2017 to 2021, with their COVID-19 ACC Tournament Title resulting from a 16-4 record in conference play — another statement year for Hamilton. Much like at Virginia, it’s nostalgic now. It wouldn’t surprise me if Hamilton stepped down or if he and the Seminoles’ athletic department came to a mutual agreement to part ways. It’s probably time for them to pivot to a younger candidate grown out of the NIL landscape.

I’m not quite sure what to think of Florida State’s appeal as a job. Despite their catastrophic season, football still casts a large shadow in Tallahassee; moreover, basketball’s track record of success has not persisted in the wake of the 2020-21 season. 

Other Notes

Minnesota has to move on from Coach Ben Johnson, who is on track for three losing seasons in only four years in Minneapolis. Despite a position in the Big Ten, the Golden Gophers are firmly below the rest of the pack. It’s a tough job.

UCF’s Johnny Dawkins has coached his tail off in a prove-it year. The Golden Knights have wins over then-No. 13 Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Arizona State, and they’re sitting at fourth in the uber-competitive Big 12. While the schedule will toughen, Dawkins is off of the hot seat for now; we’ll revisit that position in a month or so.

Ranking of Potential Coaching Vacancies: 

1. Indiana — Big Ten 
2. Virginia — ACC
3. Villanova — Big East
4. Miami — ACC
5. Florida State — ACC
6. Arizona State — Big 12
7. Minnesota — Big Ten

There’s plenty to be decided, but the writing is on the wall for a few programs. Miami will move on, and Virginia’s struggles indicate that a coaching search is inevitable. Luckily, Virginia won’t have to compete with the likes of Kentucky, Arkansas, Michigan, Louisville, West Virginia, USC, and BYU, all of whom experienced coaching changes this offseason.

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