ESPN Gives Fair Appraisal of Virginia in 2024 ACC Football Preview

Matt Newton | Jul 20, 2024

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

As we approach fall camp and eventually the start of the 2024 college football season, previews and predictions are starting to roll in. ESPN's Bill Connelly has been previewing each FBS conference, breaking down the returning roster and outlook for each team in that conference and giving predictions for how things will unfold in that conference this upcoming season.

Virginia didn't exactly win any preseason awards in Connelly's preview of the Atlantic Coast Conference, not that we were expecting it, but Connelly did give the Cavaliers a fair and balanced appraisal, delivering some reasonable critiques about the team's expected weaknesses, but also expressing some optimism in what Tony Elliott's team might be able to accomplish in his third year as a head coach.

Before we dive into Connelly's analysis, let's take a look at some of ESPN's predictive analytics for the Atlantic Coast Conference in the 2024 college football season. ESPN's SP+ rankings, which are a measure of college football efficiency that adjusts for tempo and opponent, unsurprisingly has Florida State and Clemson at the top of the league, ranked 12th and 14th in the nation, respectively. Virginia, meanwhile, is 14th in the ACC with an SP+ of -4.5, which also ranks 77th in the nation. UVA is projected as 75th in offensive efficiency and 81st in defensive efficiency with 4.1 predicted average total wins and 2.5 predicted average ACC wins. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) is slightly higher on the Hoos, ranking them 72nd in the country with an average win-loss record of 4.6-7.4.

Here's what Connelly had to say about Virginia's offense, recapping the 2023 season and looking ahead to 2024:

"A true freshman led the team in passing. The offensive line featured two freshmen and two sophomores. Twenty-one defenders started at least one game. The 2023 season felt like a second first year for head coach Tony Elliott, and maybe after the tragedy that ended the 2022 season, a fresh start was exactly what was required.

The season wasn't without some bright moments. The Cavaliers played eight teams that finished in the SP+ top 40 and upset a couple of them (UNC and Duke). Anthony Colandrea, the aforementioned freshman QB, was predictably inconsistent, but he's a fun, high-energy guy, and a week after both throwing for 314 yards and rushing for 109 (not including sacks) against Louisville, he led an upset of Duke. Elliott insisted that Colandrea and senior Tony Muskett are still battling for the starting job this spring, but it seemed like Colandrea won that battle last November. And in 2024, he'll no longer be protected by two freshman tackles. Leading receiver Malik Washington is gone, but senior Malachi Fields will be joined by transfers Chris Tyree (Notre Dame), Trell Harris (Kent State) and Andre Greene Jr. (North Carolina). The running game might still be dismal, but you can build around this passing game."

Connelly thinks UVA's pass defense is suspect with the departures of four key defensive backs, but he is high on the front seven returning to its solid production from the 2022 season, headlined by his favorite player Kam Butler. Here's what Connelly said about Virginia's defense:

"The defense, decent in 2022, fell apart amid constant injuries and shuffling. The Cavaliers prevented big plays but didn't force nearly enough field goals or turnovers to pull off a proper bend-don't-break routine. Most of the front six returns, including active linebackers James Jackson and Kamren Robinson and pass rusher Kam Butler. Safety Jonas Sanker gives veteran coordinator John Rudzinski at least one known quantity in the back, but four of last year's top five DBs are gone, and Elliott signed four DB transfers. It wouldn't be a surprise if the run defense improved with experience, but the pass defense is a major question mark.

My favorite player: DE Kam Butler. Butler is a modern college football story, in that he transferred midway through his career and has been playing forever. He was a freshman star at Miami (Ohio) in 2019 and made 32 tackles and 15 sacks in 30 career games before transferring. His first season at UVA was decent, and he was on the way toward another breakout -- 5.5 TFLs and 3.5 sacks in just 199 snaps -- before a season-ending shoulder injury. If he's 100%, he's a potentially transformative star up front."

ESPN is giving Virginia a 0.3% chance of winning the ACC Championship, which feels like charity, and a 16.9% chance of winning the requisite six games to reach bowl eligibility. Only Stanford (10.9%) and Georgia Tech (16.4%) have a lower chance of winning six games, and the Yellow Jackets have the 15th-toughest schedule in the country. Virginia is ranked 42nd in strength of schedule.

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