ESPN Has Virginia Making a Bowl Game in Latest Projections, Too Soon?

Matt Newton | Sep 23, 2024

Virginia Athletics

We are officially 1/3 of the way through the 2024 Virginia football season and, save a disappointing performance in the lone loss to Maryland in week 3, the Cavaliers have gotten off to a pretty strong start, taking a 3-1 record into the bye week featuring an impressive come-from-behind victory at Wake Forest and a pair of "took care of business" wins over Richmond and Coastal Carolina.

While the toughest challenges are still to come on UVA's schedule, including ranked opponents in two of the next three games, Virginia's 3-1 start to the season has not gone unnoticed. ESPN releases projections for the College Football Playoff and each bowl game after each week of the season. In their updated bowl projections following week 4, ESPN's Mark Schlabach predicted Virginia to reach bowl eligibility. Schlabach has UVA playing in the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl and facing South Alabama of the Sun Belt Conference on Friday, December 20th at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.

So now, the question becomes: is it too soon to start talking bowl games for Virginia?

Sure, any team that starts 3-1 would certainly be expected to at least contend for a bowl game appearance, especially when that team is a Power Conference team that traditionally only needs to go 6-6 to reach bowl eligibility. The Cavaliers have already matched their win total from each of Tony Elliott's first two seasons leading the program and there are still eight games to go.

However, Virginia's most winnable games are in the rearview mirror. UVA did well to go 3-1 through the softest portion of its schedule but the real challenges lie ahead. After the bye week, the Cavaliers host a Boston College team that was previously ranked and who received 55 votes in this week's AP Poll, then host No. 15 Louisville, and then visit No. 17 Clemson. North Carolina comes to Charlottesville on October 26th and while the Tar Heels aren't nearly as dangerous as they were expected to be after losing their quarterback, that's still far from a guarantee despite UNC giving up a staggering 70 points to JMU this weekend.

After another bye week, Virginia enters a final four-game stretch that features road trips to Pitt (37 votes in this week's AP poll) and No. 16 Notre Dame, a home game against SMU (2 votes in this week's AP poll), and then the always-perilous trip to Virginia Tech, where the Hoos haven't won since 1998.

In their last eight games, the Cavaliers are only favored to win one of them (home against North Carolina), according to ESPN Analytics.

Virginia has momentum, that's true. And being halfway to bowl eligibility by the end of week 4 is a great spot for Tony Elliott's crew to be in. But as we take a brief look at the schedule of opponents over the final eight games of the season, getting those three other wins does not leave the Cavaliers much room for error.

With that said, this is a perfect time for optimism, so we'll take it, and just appreciate ESPN for the vote of confidence.

For More Virginia Football News

UVA Football Report Card: Handing Out Grades for Virginia's Win at Coastal

Hitting the Keys: Looking Back at Our Five Keys to Virginia vs. Coastal Carolina

By the Numbers: Breaking Down Virginia's Win at Coastal Carolina

UVA Football: Five Takeaways From Virginia's 43-24 Win at Coastal Carolina

Virginia Uses Dominant Ground Game to Overpower Coastal Carolina 43-24